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With the RBI cutting the repo rate by 1% in this year, EMIs have come down too. (AI image)

India’s retail inflation – also called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation – hitting a record low of 0.25% in October may spell good news for the common man, not just in terms of a lower rate of increase in prices, but also with the prospect of lower loan EMIs in the coming months.Retail inflation in October has hit its lowest level since 2013 – the time that this series of CPI inflation started. The more-than-expected drop in inflation numbers to well below the Reserve Bank of India (RBI’s) target range of 2-6% bodes well for the possibility of further rate cuts by the central bank in the coming months.The data is also significant since with more room for a repo rate cut, the RBI is in a more comfortable position to provide growth impetus to the Indian economy, whose exports have been hit by Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs. India is the world’s fastest growing major economy, but uncertainty on the India-US trade deal has RBI in a wait-and-watch mode on growth measures. A repo rate cut in December now seems more likely than ever, believe economists.RBI started its rate easing cycle in February this year, and has so far cut the repo rate by 1%. A lower repo rate is expected to translate into lower loan rates, hence reducing the interest outgo and EMIs for loan borrowers.How much has the 1% rate cut translated into more money in your pocket and will your EMIs come down further? Here’s an explainer on India’s record low inflation, RBI’s policy outlook and what that means for loan takers in 2026:

Inflation miracle – lowest in over a decade!

National Statistics Office data shows that retail inflation eased to 0.25% in October, much below the 1.4% print in September and substantially lower than the 6.2% number in October last year. Food inflation actually entered the deflationary zone, contracting 5% in October. That’s a decrease of 269 basis points compared to September! The food inflation in October is also the lowest of the current CPI series.But what about the road ahead? Most economists are of the view that the retail inflation has bottomed out, and will likely rise in the coming quarters. However, the consensus is that it will remain benign, and well within RBI’s comfort zone, making it easier for the central bank to provide any growth impetus to the economy, if required.Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist at Crisil Limited explains that October saw the strongest base-effect support to food prices, which helped pull down headline inflation. “However, this effect will now fade, limiting further declines in food inflation. Some upward pressure on headline inflation is therefore expected in the coming months,” she told TOI.“That said, lower GST rates on mass consumption items should keep a lid on the inflation rise,” she added.Yuvika Singhal – Economist, QuantEco Research told TOI, “Although we expect CPI inflation to bottom out in Q3 FY26 and pick up gradually thereafter, the outlook remains benign for the foreseeable future. The sustained trend of downward pressure on food prices since the beginning of this year, coupled with the recent reduction in prices driven by GST adjustments, has pulled the CPI inflation curve for FY26 systematically lower. We now estimate FY26 CPI inflation to average at 2.1% vs. our projection of 2.6% earlier.”“Consequently, compared to its H1 average of 2.2%, CPI inflation is estimated to be lower in H2 FY26, averaging at 1.9%. Several factors have contributed to this favourable outlook, including the positive impact of a strong monsoon on Kharif crop output, healthy reservoir levels facilitating an early start to Rabi sowing, and restrained increases in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for both Kharif and Rabi crops, which have collectively contributed a disinflationary impulse of approximately 10 basis points. Additionally, the GST-driven reductions in prices have further supported this downward trend in inflation,” she added.The government announced sweeping cuts in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in September, modifying the slab structure into two broad rates – 5% and 18%. How much of the reduced prices of goods has been reflected in inflation? According to Nomura, there was a 0.12 percentage point impact of GST cuts in the October numbers. The full impact is expected to reflect in the coming months. Nomura estimates that a full transmission of the GST cuts could result in a 1.6 percentage points reduction to the retail inflation basket.Yuvika Singhal sees a definite impact of GST rate cuts on the inflation trajectory, and the sharper than expected fall in CPI. “While it is difficult to quantify the exact impact of GST restructuring on the monthly CPI inflation print, there has definitely been a disinflationary impulse owing to GST changes in Sep-25. The impact is palpable in the case of price of goods (excluding primary food, fuel, and precious metals) – which contracted by 0.47% in Oct-25 compared to a median increase of 0.74% typically recorded in the month of October,” she explains.“Having said that, price discovery for products affected by revised tax rates remains ongoing. Our analysis of online prices for select high-selling items on Amazon over the past month suggests that part of the initial price reductions introduced when the lower GST rates took effect on 22–23 September 2025 has since been reversed. Specifically, of the median 16.4% price reduction observed immediately after the GST implementation, approximately 6.3% has been subsequently unwound. These price adjustments reflect a normal market response to the new tax regime and may be influenced by stronger festive-season demand, efforts by retailers to recoup losses from pre-GST inventory sold at lower prices, and/or the effects of rupee depreciation,” she notes.“As such, the impact of GST price cuts may extend beyond one inflation print. A clearer picture would emerge by the end of CY25. Overall, we estimate GST rationalization to reduce CPI inflation to the tune of ~130 bps, of which only 60-70 bps is likely to see a passthrough, given market rigidities,” she added.According to CRISIL’s Dipti Deshpande, a closer look at inflation data indicates that most household electronics and automobiles have already reflected the GST benefits, while pass-through in fast-moving consumer goods is still underway.

Will RBI cut repo rate in December?

At the start of 2025, the repo rate stood at 6.5% – and as the end of the year approaches, it has come down by a full 100 basis points! Where will the easing cycle stop? Will RBI wait for more clarity on the India-US trade deal, or is time ripe for another rate cut?Dipti Deshpande expects the RBI to cut repo rate in the December policy review which is scheduled between December 3-5. “CPI inflation has consistently surprised on the downside this fiscal year. The sharp decline has pushed the average inflation for the first five seven months down to 1.9% – below the RBI’s lower inflation tolerance band – creating space for monetary easing. We see the likelihood of a 25 basis points repo rate cut in December,” she says.Yuvika Singhal of QuantEco Research also expects a 25 basis points reduction in repo rate to 5.5%.“Given the deeper than anticipated trough in FY26 CPI inflation, we maintain our expectation that the RBI will announce a 25 basis points repo reduction at its Dec-25 policy meeting,” she says. Singhal is of the view that while the domestic environment continues to provide support to the growth outlook, driven in particular by GST reductions and the strong momentum in government capital expenditure, the external landscape remains challenging.“The 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods continues to pose a significant vulnerability for the economy, with its outsized impact on MSMEs and jobs. The RBI’s recently announced trade relief measures, aimed at alleviating the accumulating stress in select sectors, further highlight the need for policy support to sustain growth. In this context, coordinated monetary and fiscal actions can play a critical role in strengthening the economy’s resilience,” she says.

Will your loan EMIs continue to come down in 2026?

The math for your home or car loan interest rate is simple: RBI lends to commercial banks at an interest rate which is called the repo rate. If the repo rate is high, banks in turn charge their customers a higher lending rate for loans. A lower repo rate allows banks to charge a lesser interest rate, hence decreasing the EMIs that borrowers have to pay.With the RBI cutting the repo rate by 1% in this year, EMIs have come down too – for new borrowers and those with a floating interest rate loan. The financial system works with a lag – it takes some time for the banks to pass on the benefits of lower repo rate to borrowers.According to data shared by BankBazaar.com, most major banks have cut their lending rates anywhere from 85 basis points to 110 basis points.“While the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) were early to cut the rates, most large Private Sector Banks (PVBs) have followed suit. The spread on the repo has also shrunk across PSBs and PVBs. The spread for most PSBs is currently 2% or less. The PVBs historically charge a higher spread and most of them are above 2%. However, the spreads have shrunk here, too,” says Adhil Shetty, CEO at BankBazaar.com.According to Bankbazaar.com’s calculations, if the original home loan interest is assumed to be 8.5%, with a 1% transmission, it now stands at 7.5%. For a home loan with a 20-year tenure, this results in substantial reduction in interest outgo. For example;

So will this interest burden come down even more in the coming months? It’s quite likely!“Home loan EMIs are directly linked to the repo, and any change to the repo rate will cause the EMIs to change. Given the low levels of inflation, it is highly probable that the RBI will cut rates again in this fiscal. The US Fed cutting rates despite high inflation in the US could be another impetus to the RBI’s decision,” Adhil Shetty tells TOI.With more rate cuts expected in the upcoming policies, loan borrowers may soon have a big reason to cheer in the new year as well!

Army chief Upendra Dwivedi (PTI photo)

NEW DELHI: Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi on Monday delivered a strong message to Pakistan and terror outfits operating from its soil, declaring that India’s recent counterterror offensive, Operation Sindoor, was “just a trailer” and that the country is fully prepared for future challenges.His clear warning to Pakistan comes days after a car blast in the vicinity of historical Red Fort in New Delhi.Also read | Delhi car blast: Bomber had lab at home to test explosives; tested bomb making techniques shared by Pakistan handlers

Addressing the Chanakya Defence Dialogue, the Army chief said India would deal equally with terrorists and those backing them. “When a country encourages state-sponsored terrorism, it becomes a matter of concern for India. India talks about progress. If someone creates obstacles in our course, then we will have to take some action against them.”“When we talk about the new normal, we have said that talks and terror can’t go together. All we are asking is to adopt a peaceful process, which we will cooperate with. Until then, we will treat terrorists and their sponsors alike. We will respond to those who encourage terrorists. Today, India is so accomplished that it is not scared of any blackmail attempts,” he said.Speaking about Operation Sindoor, he added, “Operation Sindoor was just a trailer which ended in 88 hours. We are prepared for any circumstances in future. If Pakistan gives a chance, we will teach it how to behave responsibly with a neighbouring nation…”Follow Delhi Blast Live Updates
The Army chief further noted that modern conflict requires coordination across several platforms, saying, “In today’s time, battles are multi-domain. We cannot say how long it will last. We have to ensure we have supplies to last long.”Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after the Pakistan-backed Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which claimed 26 lives in Anantnag district, Jammu and Kashmir. India later launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, destroying multiple terror hubs and air bases across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.The standoff eased only after Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations initiated talks for a peace agreement. However, India has maintained that the operation is in a paused state, not fully terminated, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi having warned that any future “act of terror” would be treated as an “act of war.”

Top stocks to buy (AI image)

Stock market recommendations: According to Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities, the top stock picks for this week are City Union Bank, and Belrise Industries. Here’s his view on Nifty, Bank Nifty for the week starting November 17, 2025:Nifty View:The benchmark index Nifty staged a solid rebound after taking support in the 25300–25330 zone—an area marked by the confluence of the 50-day EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing from 24587 to 26104. This technical alignment provided a strong platform for recovery, propelling the index nearly 700 points higher from the recent low of 25318 within just five sessions.Friday’s session began with a gap-down opening, followed by a largely sideways movement. However, a sharp surge in the final hour revived bullish sentiment, supported by market optimism as the NDA secured a notable lead in the Bihar elections. Nifty ended the week above 25900, posting a healthy 1.64% gain and forming a bullish candle, signaling continued strength. Additionally, Nifty Midcap 100 and Bank Nifty registered fresh all-time highs during the week, adding to the upbeat tone.Technically, the index is positioned well above its key moving averages, all of which are trending higher—indicating sustained positive momentum. Both daily and weekly RSI readings remain comfortably in bullish territory, suggesting the uptrend could extend further. Going ahead, we anticipate a move towards 26200 initially, followed by 26500 in the short term.On the lower side, the 20-day EMA zone around 25700–25650 remains a crucial support buffer. A decisive break below this area may invite profit-taking, but unless that happens, the near-term outlook stays positive. Sector-wise, leadership is expected from Private Banks, PSU Banks, Financial Services, Defence, Automobiles, Oil & Gas, Capital Markets, Infrastructure, and Pharma space.Bank Nifty ViewAfter three successive weeks of sideways consolidation, Bank Nifty has finally staged a decisive breakout, fueling a strong upward move and clocking a fresh all-time high. The index closed the week above 58500, forming a sizable bullish candle on the weekly chart—clearly signalling renewed strength in banking stocks.With the index now trading at record highs, all major moving averages remain aligned upward, reaffirming the prevailing bullish trend. Momentum indicators are also supportive: both daily and weekly RSI are positioned firmly in positive territory, while a rising weekly MACD histogram reflects increasing upside momentum, adding confidence to the breakout structure.Looking ahead, the 58700–58800 zone will serve as a crucial resistance area. A sustained close above 58800 may open the door for a sharp rally toward 59500, followed by 60200 in the near term. On the downside, the 20-day EMA range of 57800–57700 is expected to act as a strong demand zone, ensuring the broader bias remains constructive as long as this support holds.

Stock recommendations:

City Union BankCity Union Bank (CUB) has given a bullish Flag breakout on a daily scale, backed by rising volumes that validate the strength of the breakout. The MACD slope is trending upwards, signalling sustained bullish momentum and reinforcing the shift in favour of buyers. Price action remains firmly above key short and long-term moving averages, highlighting a strong underlying trend. The stock also closed near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating persistent buying pressure and suggesting that price may continue to push higher within the band. Overall, the setup remains firmly bullish, with potential for further upside. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 271-268 with a stoploss of 258. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 290 in the short term.Belrise IndustriesBelrise has broken out of its tight 143–158 consolidation range, a structure that persisted through most of October. The breakout on 13th November, accompanied by strong volumes, confirms renewed buying interest. Price has now closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, highlighting strong upside momentum. RSI has surged and is now positioned at 69.27, reflecting firm bullish strength.The MACD histogram bars continue to rise, indicating accelerating momentum as bullish pressure builds, while the MACD line staying above both the signal line and the zero line reinforces a positive trend structure. Overall, Belrise appears set for continued upside. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 165-163 with a stoploss of 156. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 175 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

PM Narendra Modi (ANI image)

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday expressed deep sorrow over the tragic accident in Medinah, Saudi Arabia in which more than 40 Indian Umrah pilgrims are feared dead. In a post on X, he wrote: “Deeply saddened by the accident in Medinah involving Indian nationals. My thoughts are with the families who have lost their loved ones. I pray for the swift recovery of all those injured. Our Embassy in Riyadh and Consulate in Jeddah are providing all possible assistance. Our officials are also in close contact with Saudi Arabian authorities.”

According to initial reports, the crash took place early Monday when a passenger bus travelling from Mecca to Medina collided with a diesel tanker. The pilgrims had completed their rituals in Mecca and were heading to Medina when the collision occurred around 1.30 am IST. Many of the victims are believed to be from Hyderabad. Local sources said more than 40 people died on the spot, while the Telangana Haj Committee stated that 42 pilgrims had lost their lives. The victims reportedly include women and children, and most passengers were asleep at the time of the crash.Telangana chief minister A Revanth Reddy said he was shocked to hear about the tragedy and instructed officials to urgently collect detailed information, including the number of passengers from Telangana. The state government has set up a control room to assist affected families, while authorities remain in contact with the Ministry of External Affairs and Saudi officials.The Indian Consulate in Jeddah has activated a 24×7 helpline to support families seeking information. Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi said he contacted travel agencies and MEA officials and shared passenger details with the Indian Embassy in Riyadh. External affairs minister S Jaishankar also expressed grief. In a post on X he wrote: “Deeply shocked at the accident involving Indian nationals in Medinah, Saudi Arabia. Our Embassy in Riyadh and Consulate in Jeddah are giving fullest support to Indian nationals and families affected by this accident. Sincere condolences to the bereaved families. Pray for the speedy recovery of those injured.”

CHENNAI: India’s state-run oil marketing companies are expected to withstand the impact of fresh US sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the European Union’s ban on refined products derived from Russian crude, according to Fitch Ratings.The rating agency said the measures are unlikely to materially affect refining margins or the credit profiles of rated Indian OMCs, though the eventual impact will hinge on the duration and strictness of sanctions enforcement.

Russia supplied about 33% of India’s crude imports between January and August 2025, and its discounted price has supported Indian OMCs’ EBITDA and profitability. While OMCs are expected to adhere to the sanctions—consistent with their public positions—Fitch noted that some refiners may still process Russian crude sourced through non-sanctioned channels.Sanctions are likely to reduce global demand for refined products linked to affected Russian crude, widening product spreads. This could ease pressure on refiners’ profitability as they shift toward costlier alternatives and manage volatility in shipping and insurance. Refiners continuing to use Russian crude could also secure larger discounts, offering some margin protection.

Fitch added that ample spare global crude production capacity should help contain upward pressure on oil prices. It forecasts Brent crude at $65 per barrel in 2026, compared with $70 in 2025.However, private refiners with sizable EU export exposure may face higher compliance risks, as verifying crude origin becomes more complex when grades are blended before refining. Such refiners may need to diversify markets, adjust crude sourcing strategies, or strengthen traceability systems.Indian OMCs posted EBITDA broadly in line with or slightly above expectations in the first half of FY26, supported by lower crude costs and strong gasoil spreads. Gross refining margins averaged $6–7 per barrel, compared with $4.5–7 per barrel in FY25.Fitch expects mid-cycle refining margins of around $6 per barrel in FY27, helped by rising domestic demand, high refinery utilisation and lower crude prices, even as global growth moderates. Marketing margins should remain stable barring any government intervention on retail prices or excise duties.To cushion OMCs from regulated LPG sales at subsidised rates, the government has approved a Rs300 billion support package for Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) in the second quarter of FY26. This will help offset under-recoveries and strengthen liquidity, it said.

File photo: Economic secretary Anuradha Thakur

MUMBAI: The government has said that the financial sector should not fight disintermediation but “take the bull by its horns, work collectively, analyse trends deeply and see how to channelise these so that financial flows become smoother within the domestic economy to all segments that require finance.”Speaking at the CII Financing Summit | India’s Financial Sector: Building Growth in Mumbai, economic secretary Anuradha Thakur said there was a rising financialisation of savings, a shift from deposits to mutual funds and equities, falling CASA ratios and greater reliance on market-based funding. She said the share of banks in total credit has dropped from 77% to around 60%, IPO activity has increased sixfold, and corporates are relying more on internal resources. These shifts, she said, require industry and regulators to “collectively think” about how to ensure that finance reaches MSMEs and low-income households, describing the financial system as “a strategic driver not only of long-term growth but also of ensuring distributional equity.”According to Thakur the new trends “call into question the usual known ways of doing business” and urged industry to confront them directly rather than be unsettled by shifts in savings patterns, credit flows and market-based financing. She also expressed hole that the recent GST cuts “will ignite the much-needed animal spirits in the financial sector.”She added that MSMEs “face persistent credit constraints which are compounded by delayed payments from large buyers and limited access to formal debt markets,” arguing that cash-flow-based lending and technology-driven tools can ease pressures on the sector.Thakur said the financial sector had become “a catalyst and reflection of India’s economic transformation,” supported by reforms that strengthened bank balance sheets, improved NPA resolution and enforced stricter governance. She said regulators “have strictly enforced disclosure norms, protection of investors and improved governance,” while gradual liberalisation and stable macroeconomic management have “held us in good stead avoiding shocks and sudden capital flows.” According to her, inclusion measures and digital infrastructure—from Jandhan and Aadhaar to UPI—have created systems with “the potential to accelerate economic growth,” while direct benefit transfers now ensure that subsidies “reach the genuine beneficiaries.”Thakur said targeted schemes have “democratized access to collateral-free credit, empowered women and marginalized entrepreneurs,” citing the Credit Guarantee Scheme, Mudra and Stand Up India, along with tools like GST Sahai and account aggregator frameworks.She highlighted the need for deeper capital markets, noting that the corporate bond market “remains dominated by highly rated financial issuers and has a weak secondary market liquidity,” and said more companies must be encouraged to issue bonds through better disclosures and credit enhancement mechanisms. She also described REITs and InvITs as still “viewed as niche products,” even though a decade has passed since their introduction, and said “critical miles” remain before they become mainstream channels for long-term savings.The IFSC at Gift City, she said, is “emerging as a global hub for financial services,” supported by regulatory sandboxes that allow experimentation under “robust safeguards for investor protection.” On infrastructure, she cited the National Infrastructure Pipeline, National Monetisation Pipeline and NIIF, noting that NIIF has mobilised “more than 16,000 crores for investors.”She concluded by saying that sustaining 8% GDP growth will require significant investment, with the financial system playing “a pivotal role in channelling savings towards investments in productive segments of the economy.”