MUMBAI: Women borrowers now account for Rs 76 lakh crore of credit, or 26% of total system credit in 2025, marking a near five-fold rise since 2017 and signalling a structural shift in India’s credit landscape.A joint report by TransUnion CIBIL, Niti Aayog’s WEP, and MicroSave Consulting said women are moving from being passive beneficiaries to active drivers of credit demand. The number of women availing formal credit grew at a CAGR of 9% between 2017 and 2025. Outstanding credit for women rose 4.8 times in this period compared with 2.9 times growth in overall credit. “The number of women availing formal credit in India has grown at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% between 2017 and 2025, underscoring their increasing engagement with the financial system. Outstanding credit for women borrowers has grown 4.8 times since 2017, compared with 2.9 times for total credit, indicating a significantly faster expansion. In recent years, the growth of digital infrastructure has facilitated easier onboarding, faster loan processing, and improved access to information,” said Bhavesh Jain, MD and CEO, TransUnion Cibil.Women’s share in retail loan originations rose to 27% in 2025 from 24% in 2022, reflecting broad-based growth across segments. Their share in housing loan originations increased to 69% from 63% over the same period, indicating a rise in asset ownership and participation in financial decisions. In consumption credit, women’s share rose to 19% from 16%, while in gold loans it increased to 37% from 36%. The share of new-to-credit women borrowers in retail credit rose by 10 percentage points to 38% in 2025, showing expansion into previously unserved segments.“At Niti Aayog, we recognize that access to finance is a structural enabler of women’s economic participation. Through platforms such as the Women Entrepreneurship Platform and the Financing Women Collaborative, we are working to strengthen ecosystem coordination,” said Nidhi Chhibber, CEO, Niti Aayog.The report said rising access to credit is translating into greater economic participation. The number of women with active business-purpose loans grew at a CAGR of 31% over the past three years, indicating a shift towards enterprise activity. Digitisation has reduced turnaround time, with same-day approvals in consumption loans rising to 45% in 2025 from 34% in 2022. Around 19% of active microfinance borrowers now hold individual retail or commercial loans, suggesting a move towards more complex financial products.The report outlined measures to expand participation further. It said lenders should use digital transaction data such as UPI histories for underwriting, especially for borrowers without collateral. It called for strengthening last-mile digital capability through collectives and peer networks to build trust. It recommended lifecycle-based financial products that combine savings, credit, and literacy, with a focus on women under 35. It also said expansion should be supported by better risk segmentation and use of alternative data to bring unserved women into the system while maintaining portfolio quality.The report said the ecosystem should track progression metrics such as graduation rates and multi-product holding instead of focusing only on disbursement volumes. It also called for vernacular and voice-enabled digital models and integration of non-financial support such as market linkages to help women-led businesses scale.

Billionaire Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani have moved to challenge a US securities fraud case, asking a federal court in New York to dismiss the lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding a 2021 bond issue by Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL).In a filing before the Brooklyn federal court, Adanis, through its lawyers, denied wrongdoing and stated that investors suffered no losses in the bond issue being challenged, as per news agency PTI.

SEC case linked to 2021 Adani Green bond offering

The SEC had sued Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani in November 2024, alleging they were involved in a scheme to pay or promise hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to Indian government officials to benefit Adani Green Energy, where both hold executive and board roles, according to Reuters.The regulator’s case centres on allegations that Adani Green failed to disclose the alleged bribery scheme in documents tied to a $750 million bond offering in 2021.The Adanis, in a pre-motion letter filed ahead of a planned April 30 dismissal request, argued that the SEC’s case over the 2021 bond sale is flawed on several legal grounds.

Adanis argue US court has no jurisdiction

A key plank of the defence is that the case falls outside US jurisdiction.According to PTI, Adanis argued that the court lacks personal jurisdiction because neither of them had sufficient contact with the United States or direct involvement in the bond offering.Their lawyers said the $750 million bond issue was conducted outside the US under Rule 144A and Regulation S exemptions, with the securities initially sold to non-US underwriters and only later resold in part to qualified institutional buyers.The defence described the SEC’s claims as “impermissibly extraterritorial”, arguing that both defendants are based in India, the alleged misconduct took place entirely in India, and the bonds were never traded on a US exchange.The filing also says the issuer is Indian and the securities were not listed in the US, strengthening the argument that US securities law should not apply.

Defence says no investor losses, no credible bribery evidence

The Adanis have also argued that the SEC has failed to show investor harm.The filing states the regulator does not allege any investor losses, adding that the bonds matured and were fully repaid with interest in 2024.The defence further disputes the underlying bribery allegations. The Adanis said there is no credible evidence supporting the claims.

Filing says SEC failed to show direct role or intent

The Adanis’ lawyers also argued that the complaint does not specifically tie Gautam Adani to the bond issuance.The filing says the SEC does not allege that he approved the issuance, attended key meetings, or directed activity aimed at US investors.The defence also said the SEC failed to show a “domestic transaction”, which it argued is necessary under US Supreme Court precedent for US securities laws to apply.In addition, the filing says the SEC has not linked either Gautam or Sagar Adani to specific misleading statements or demonstrated any intent to defraud.Statements cited by the SEC about ESG commitments, anti-corruption standards and corporate reputation were described by the defence as non-actionable “puffery”, or broad corporate optimism that investors could not reasonably rely on, according to PTI.Adanis are now seeking dismissal of the SEC case in full and have said they are ready to appear for a pre-motion conference if needed.

The ongoing Middle East crisis is emerging as a significant external shock for India, with risks spreading across energy markets, trade flows and supply chains, according to a recent white paper by Dun & Bradstreet.The report shows that countries in the Gulf–Levant region account for nearly 15 per cent of India’s merchandise exports and about 21 per cent of imports, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions despite the region’s relatively small share in global output.A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes. Any disruption in the corridor is already feeding into higher freight, insurance and energy costs, with Brent crude prices having surged sharply in recent weeks.For Indian exporters, the impact is being felt unevenly across sectors and geographies. Discretionary segments such as gems and jewellery, apparel, automobiles and electronics are facing demand slowdown and order deferrals from Gulf markets. Labour-intensive clusters such as Tiruppur’s garment industry are particularly exposed to employment risks because of thin margins and short order cycles.Agricultural exporters are among the worst hit, especially those dealing in perishable goods such as grapes, bananas and meat, where shipping delays can lead to spoilage, price discounts and income losses for farmers.On the import side, India’s dependence on the region for key inputs such as fertilisers, limestone and gold compounds has raised the risk of supply disruptions. This could have cascading effects on agriculture, construction and manufacturing, particularly during peak demand cycles.

The report added that more than 4,500 Indian exporters and 1,800 importers relied on the Strait of Hormuz trade route in 2025, exposing them to shipment delays, payment uncertainties and working capital stress. Firms are also facing tighter trade credit conditions as banks reassess risk amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.Higher energy prices are adding to the pressure. Sectors such as aviation, chemicals, transport and metals, which are heavily dependent on fuel and power, are seeing input costs rise sharply, squeezing margins and potentially pushing up prices for end consumers.At a broader level, a prolonged crisis could trigger second-round effects on the Indian economy, including sustained inflation, tighter financial conditions and slower growth. A slowdown in Gulf economies may also dampen remittance inflows from Indian workers in the region, affecting household incomes.The report cautions that diversifying away from the region in the short term remains difficult due to limited alternative supply capacity and the global nature of energy and logistics costs.Overall, while a short-term disruption may act as a temporary shock, a prolonged crisis could have deeper structural implications for India’s trade, inflation dynamics and corporate balance sheets.

Gold, which is often considered the safe haven asset, has also failed to rise to the occasion for investors. (AI image)

Stock markets are in deep red and in all likelihood so is your investment portfolio since the start of the US-Israel-Iran war. The conflict has been a perfect storm for stock markets globally, and the Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, which had just started recovery after the announcement of the India-US trade deal were hit by the severe shock. Sensex and Nifty are down over 12% from their lifetime highs and investors have lost several lakh crore with the combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms down over Rs 30 lakh crore since the start of the Middle East conflict.With global crude oil prices rising and India’s huge import dependence, all positive drivers of the stock market have taken a back seat. A depreciating rupee, flight of foreign capital, and prospects of impact on industry and earnings has investors running for cover. Gold, which is often considered the safe haven asset, has also failed to rise to the occasion for investors, instead seeing high volatility and dropping unceremoniously from its lifetime highs. In such a scenario, what should investors do? It’s the start of a new financial year, and if you are wondering where to put your money – this article has you covered. We asked five experts what they think is the right portfolio strategy for investors at the current juncture, across time frames and risk appetites. The experts also shared lessons from historical shocks for stock markets. Let’s take a look:

What’s The Right Investment Strategy Right Now? What Experts Say

Below is a detailed analysis by five experts on best portfolio allocation strategy, the right investment mix and investment lessons from history:Amitabh Lara, Executive Director, Anand Rathi Wealth LimitedBest Portfolio allocation strategy & mix: In a volatile environment like this, the focus should be on aligning strategy as per goals rather than reacting to short term market movements. For investors with a horizon of 6 months to 1 year, equity exposure may not be appropriate as markets can remain unpredictable in the near term. In such cases, allocating entirely to debt is a suitable approach. Investors can consider options such as gilt funds, and arbitrage funds, for those in higher tax brackets, can offer relatively efficient outcomes.The asset allocation strategy should be guided by the investment horizon, as this determines the level of risk an investor can reasonably take. For short term goals, typically less than one year, a 100% allocation to debt is advisable.For medium term goals, between 1 and 3 years, an allocation of around 70% in equity and 30% in debt will provide a good mix of growth and stability.For long term goals beyond 3 years, equity should form the core of the portfolio. An allocation of around 80% in equity and 20% in debt, with gold playing a substitute of debt portion will be ideal for such a long term portfolio. Within the equity portion, around 50 to 55% should be allocated to large caps, 20 to 25% to mid caps, and the remaining to small caps to ride all market cycles smoothly.Lessons From The Past: Historical data shows that uncertainty due to geopolitical conflicts has generally been for a shorter period of time. On average, geopolitical events have created drawdowns of around 5 to 6% in the Nifty 50, with recoveries often taking place within about a month. Even in situations where conflicts have extended over longer periods, the most significant market reaction has typically occurred in the initial phase of war, followed by gradual stabilisation.Investors should therefore remain aligned with their asset allocation strategy as per their financial goals, continue with SIP investments, and avoid making decisions driven by short term events. Long term market trends are driven by economic fundamentals rather than geopolitical developments. Ajit Mishra, SVP Research, Religare Broking Ltd1.⁠ ⁠Portfolio allocation strategy (next 6–12 months)In the current environment of geopolitical stress, elevated crude prices, and commodity volatility, a balanced and disciplined allocation is advisable. Equities should remain core at 50–60%, with a tilt towards large caps and domestically driven sectors. Fixed income at 25–30% provides stability and predictable accrual, particularly through high-quality instruments. Gold at 10–15% serves as an effective hedge against uncertainty and currency volatility. Maintaining 5–10% in cash or liquid funds allows tactical deployment during corrections. The emphasis should be on diversification, avoiding aggressive bets, and steadily deploying capital rather than attempting to time short-term market movements.2.⁠ ⁠Ideal portfolio mix (short, medium & long term)There is no one-size-fits-all allocation; it varies by individual risk profile, income stability, and financial objectives. For short-term needs, a conservative allocation with higher exposure to debt and liquid assets is appropriate. Medium-term portfolios can adopt a balanced mix of equities and fixed income to manage both growth and stability.Long-term portfolios should have a higher equity allocation to benefit from compounding. That said, investors must periodically reassess and rebalance their portfolios as market conditions and personal circumstances evolve, rather than adhering to rigid allocation frameworks.3.⁠ ⁠Historical context & key lessonsPast geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the Gulf war have typically led to sharp but short-lived market disruptions, alongside spikes in crude and gold prices. Indian equities have historically demonstrated resilience, supported by domestic growth fundamentals. The key lessons are consistent—avoid panic-driven decisions, maintain diversification across asset classes, and use volatility to gradually build positions in quality assets. Markets tend to recover ahead of visible improvement in macros; hence, disciplined investing and patience remain the most reliable drivers of long-term returns.Thomas V Abraham, Research analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhanIndian equity markets have a resilient track record during geopolitical tensions. Sharp initial dips (at the start of a geopolitical conflict) often give way to robust rebounds, rewarding patient investors who prioritize diversification and measured risk rotation over knee-jerk reactions.Market Patterns: Dips Followed by Strong ReboundsHistory reveals a clear rhythm: conflicts trigger Nifty and Sensex corrections of 4-16% in the opening weeks, but recoveries kick in swiftly—typically within 6-12 months. The current market correction has been steep, with valuations looking attractive for long term investors.Historically, market bounce backs have been above 30+ % post the dips as sentiments improve. This is on account of larger defence spends, higher share of revenue from export oriented sectors such as pharma and IT on account of increased optimism in trade improvements, and a surge in capital expenditure as Foreign Institutional investors return post the high uncertainty phase. From past history, the pre and post war investments trends can be classified as below : Preservation phase:When tensions escalate, focus on shielding capital while spotting selective opportunities. Avoid wholesale portfolio overhauls—instead, refine allocations for stability.Key tilts include:•⁠ ⁠Core equities (~50% total): Stick to large-caps with minimal debt, emphasizing defensives like non discretionary FMCG, pharma, IT (under current valuations), and stable banks. Please note, these are buys with a long term horizon.•⁠ ⁠Opportunistic plays : Allocate ~20% of equities (6-10% overall) to defense and infra firms poised for budget boosts, but watch stretched valuations.•⁠ ⁠Safe havens and Cash buffer (~15%): Gold via sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) or ETFs shines as an equity hedge during volatility spikes and Cash reserves to the tune of 10% of the fresh capital (3-6 months expenses).•⁠ ⁠Fixed income (~15%): Gilt funds or top-tier PSU bonds deliver steady yields with negligible drawdowns.•⁠ ⁠Trim aggressively: Dial back leveraged small/mid-caps, where stress amplifies downside risks.Recovery phase :•⁠ ⁠Reduce share of cash/ gold and increase equities – buy in phased tranches.•⁠ ⁠Boost defensives (IT, pharma, banks) and capex winners (infra, capital goods) that thrive on rebuilding momentum. Ajit Banerjee, President and Chief Investment Officer, Shriram Life InsuranceUnfortunately, there isn’t any size fit for all concepts in the portfolio allocation strategy under any market conditions. Depending upon the customers age profile, existing financial commitments and liabilities, risk appetite, health condition, the asset allocation strategy can be worked upon. However, remaining agnostic to all of the above conditions for deciding the portfolio allocation, the portfolio mix should be balanced between Fixed Income securities, Equity Exposure either directly or through Mutual Funds or ULIPs, some exposure into precious metals like Gold and Silver to diversify risks and take some exposure into real estate sector through investments in REITS. These can be the composition of the portfolio, however, the proportion of these may vary as per the risk profile, risk appetite, and other factors as mentioned.From an investors perspective, the basic principle for investments into equity should be that it is not meant for short-term investments perspective and should be considered for mid- to long-term investments as short-term equity investments return can be volatile with a potential to swing either way. Therefore, Purely for short-term perspective (0-3 years), we would assume that capital protection would be of paramount importance and hence the predominant portfolio allocation should be in high quality fixed income securities with a fixed maturity profile so that the interim MTM fluctuations don’t impact the investor. Some limited allocations can be made in REITS which is a very stable asset class with some capital appreciation as well. The maturities of these investments should be staggered and of high quality so that the probability of default is negligible.From a medium-term perspective (3-5 years) – The basic portfolio construct for medium-term perspective for an investor who has the ability and intent to invest for a medium-term perspective his/her allocation to Fixed Income can be in the range of (40-50)%, Equity investments either direct or passively through MFs or ULIPs can be (20-30)%, REITS/INVITS (5-10)%, Precious Metals (5-10)%.From a long-term perspective (5+ years) – The basic assumption before recommending the portfolio construct is that the investor has surplus funds available for a long-term period and has reasonable risk appetite and his other financial commitments are taken care off. Therefore, the portfolio construct can be Equity (50-60)%, Fixed Income (10-20)%, REITS/INVITS(10-20)% & Precious Metals (5-10)%. Within the equity portfolio allocation, predominantly it is recommended to invest in large- and mid-cap stocks and limited exposure in small caps as that is a very volatile segment within equities. Investment in Fixed Income and REITs and INVITS should also be of highest quality and required due diligence is done prior to investments.Investments into equity should be done with proper due diligence and stock selection should be done on a bottom–up approach as opposed to momentum buying or selection on social media or financial influencers or mere hearsay.

InCred Money Expect higher energy-driven inflation risk, elevated market volatility, and episodic safe-haven flows into gold, so be defensive, liquid, and selective.

Recommended portfolio mixes — short / medium / long (These are starting templates — tweak for age, liabilities, and goals.)

Lessons from other war-like situations:

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

MUMBAI: Uday Kotak on Tuesday warned that the world is “at a very important cusp of the return of global colonialism… in 2026 we are at one such cusp,” drawing parallels between historical imperial expansion and current geopolitical shifts, while urging India Inc to reset its approach to innovation, manufacturing and energy security.Speaking at the FICCI foundation day event, Kotak said the fact that we are at this cusp was very clear last night in US President Donald Trump’s speech in the White House. “He made two points. One, he said whoever wins the war keeps the spoils, and two, if the US gets control of the Straits of Hormuz, it will charge a rent. You are getting back to a world of true colonialism,”said Kotak.According to Kotak, the global balance of power is shifting towards a few dominant nations. “At this stage there are at least three powers with significant leverage over others… one is US, second is China and third rising because of geopolitics may be even Russia,” he said, adding that these developments point to a world increasingly shaped by power rather than rules.He compared the present moment with the rise of British colonial rule in India, highlighting how technological superiority drove expansion. “In the early stages, the East India Company was a pure trading company… then they had a superior technology—of guns and gunpowder… this technology gave them leverage,” he said, explaining how trade eventually turned into territorial control. “Through that you saw a trading company become the British Empire in India,” he added, cautioning that similar patterns may now be re-emerging in different forms.Kotak also flagged changing assumptions around global safe havens, particularly in the Middle East. “We have assumed that many cities in the Middle East are safe… are we beginning to re-examine our assumption,” he said, noting that investors who moved for “safer, sounder and tax efficient” environments may now need to reassess those decisions.Kotak called for higher spending on innovation, warning that “we believe we can buy technology… but where is the Atmanirbhar Bharat truly,” and urged IT firms to shift from services to products, noting that “hardly any of them move to ‘productise’ themselves.” He stressed prioritising national interest in areas like energy, asked “how are we going to put country first,” flagged a $116 bn trade deficit with China, and highlighted the gap in mid-sized manufacturing “between Rs 100 crore to Rs 1,000 crore.” Calling this a turning point, he said, “we have to capture this opportunity with a sense of paranoia and purpose.”He framed the current situation as a choice between cyclical recovery and structural disruption, warning businesses against ignoring tail risks. “Even if it is a low probability event it is a high impact event… whatever low probability you put to scenario two do not put it to zero,” he said, referring to the possibility of a structural break from the post-1945 global order.

The Middle East conflict, now in its sixth week, continues to send shockwaves across the world. From energy supply disruptions to rising fuel prices, several countries are being forced into emergency measures such as work-from-home policies and cost hikes. Meanwhile, the Gulf region is witnessing a split oil reality! While for some producers, soaring crude prices cushion export losses, others are facing sharp drops in revenues.The disruption followed US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, after which Iran effectively shut the Strait, a route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows. It later allowed vessels without US or Israeli links to pass, enabling limited transit, though markets continued to face “unprecedented disruption.”