India’s exports weathered a turbulent 2025 marked by steep US tariffs, geopolitical disruptions and global trade uncertainty, with exporters adapting by diversifying markets and products –a strategy that officials and industry expect will support steady growth into 2026, PTI reported.Despite a 50% duty imposed by the US on Indian goods during the year, exporters recalibrated quickly, cushioning the impact through market diversification. A senior commerce ministry official summed up the response by saying that “trade is like water, it finds its own course”.India’s merchandise exports, which stood at $276.5 billion in 2020, climbed sharply to $395.5 billion in 2021 and $453.3 billion in 2022 before easing to $389.5 billion in 2023. Momentum returned in 2024 with shipments rising to $443 billion. In 2025, exports touched $407 billion during January–November, reflecting resilience amid repeated shocks.Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India’s combined exports of goods and services hit a record $825.25 billion in 2024-25, marking over 6% year-on-year growth. The uptrend has continued into the current fiscal, with exports reaching $562 billion during April–November 2025.“Based on current trends, India’s exports are poised to deliver solid growth in 2026 as well,” Agrawal told PTI, adding that three free trade agreements — with the UK, Oman and New Zealand — are set to come into force next year, improving market access for goods and services.While US tariffs hurt shipments in September and October, exports to America rebounded sharply, rising 22.61% to $6.98 billion in November. Exporters, however, remain cautious amid global uncertainty and are watching progress on a proposed India–US bilateral trade agreement and a deal with the European Union.The World Trade Organization has projected global trade growth of 2.4% in 2025 but cut its outlook for 2026 to 0.5%, citing tariff uncertainty, slowing GDP growth and weakening business confidence in developed economies.Against this backdrop, the government said it is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy to support exporters. Measures include a Rs 25,060 crore export promotion mission, additional collateral-free credit of up to Rs 20,000 crore, debt repayment moratoriums, extended export credit tenors and leveraging free trade agreements.The NDA government has signed or implemented a series of FTAs over the past five years, including with Mauritius, Australia, the UAE, Oman, the UK, EFTA and New Zealand.Industry experts see structural shifts underpinning the outlook. Rudra Kumar Pandey, Partner at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co, said electronics exports have emerged as a key driver, rising nearly 39% in November, supported by FDI-led capacity creation and deeper integration into global value chains. Engineering goods, pharmaceuticals and automotive exports are also adding momentum, he said.Geographic diversification is another key trend. While the US and the UAE remain important markets, exports are expanding across Europe, East Asia and South Asia. Shipments to the US grew about 22% in November, while exports to Spain surged nearly 150%, alongside strong growth to China and Bangladesh.Federation of Indian Export Organisations Director General Ajay Sahai said supply-chain realignments, expanding trade partnerships and improvements in ease of doing business position exporters well for 2026. “With continued policy support and market diversification, we remain confident of a strong and stable export outlook in the coming year,” he said.However, Sahai cautioned that challenges remain, including geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, protectionism through carbon measures and non-tariff barriers, currency volatility, high freight costs and tighter global financing conditions, particularly for MSMEs.The rupee remained volatile through 2025, weakening about 5% during the year and trading near 90 to the dollar by end-December, adding another variable to the export outlook as India heads into 2026.
