Gold may test the resistance at $4550. Dip buying is the favoured strategy. (AI image)
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to continue their rally as demand for safe haven assets picks up, says Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Here’s his outlook on gold prices:Gold Performance:
- Spot gold attracted safe haven bids on Monday, i.e., January 5 and surged more than 2.5% as the US President Trump capturing and removing Venezuelan leader Maduro heightened geopolitical risks that other countries with strained relations with could also be targeted.
- The metal surged to $4456, highest in a week.
- At the time of writing this article, spot gold was changing hands at $4445, up 2.65% for the day, while the MCX February contract at Rs 137,997 was up 1.65%.
- Earlier, the shiny metal tumbled over 4% in the week ending January 2 on profit booking and margin hike related selloff.
Geopolitics watch:
- Maduro’s forcible removal has ignited a fresh wave of geopolitical concern, especially among nations whose relations with the United States have historically been uneasy. Many view the episode through the long arc of US interventionism in Latin America—from early 20th‑century regime changes to Cold War–era interventions—raising fears that countries deemed unfriendly to Washington could face similar pressure.
- The US operation in Venezuela serves as a stark reminder of Washington’s apparent revival of the Monroe Doctrine, first articulated in 1823 to oppose external powers’ influence in the Western Hemisphere and later invoked throughout the 20th century to justify strategic interventions.
- The Venezuela Episode signals a clear message to contemporary rivals such as China and Russia: The Western Hemisphere remains firmly within the traditional US sphere of influence.
- Geopolitical risks loom large: The US President Trump has threatened military action against Colombia as he accused the nation of selling cocaine to the US.
- Trump has once again expressed interest in Greenland as a strategic region for the US interests.
- US Treasury of State Marco Rubio, in a show on NBC on Sunday, called Cuba a huge problem.
- Many Chinese social media users opined that the Venezuelan operation offers a template for how China could handle the Taiwan issue.
Data roundup:
- US ISM manufacturing Index fell to 47.90 in December from 48.20 in November; the data trailed the estimate of 48.20; thus, contracted more than expected. Manufacturing contracted for the tenth straight month as it suffered the worst contraction since October 2025. ISM prices remained elevated at 58.50 while new orders and employment contracted.
- China’s RatingDog PMI composite at 51.30 in December beat the prior reading of 51.2 as Services Index in December at 52 remained encouraging.
Upcoming data:
- Major US data on tap this week include ISM services Index (January 7), JOLTs job openings (January 7), nonfarm payroll report (January 9) and University of Michigan sentiment and inflation readings (Jan. 9).
- China’s PPI and CPI for the month of December will be released on January 9. China will update its forex reserves data on January 7; it will update its gold holdings also in the process.
- Major Eurozone on the deck include Services PMI (January 6), CPI (January 7) and retail sales (Jan. 9).
- UK’s services and composite PMIs will be out on January 6.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy at Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast 2026:
Fedspeak:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Monday that interest rates may be close to a neutral level for the US economy now. He added that incoming data should guide the central bank’s actions.
Dollar Index and yields:
- At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index was trading at 98.60, up around 0.20% for the day.
- 2-Year US yields were down by 1 bps to 3.46%, while ten-year yields fell 2 bps to 4.17%.
ETF holdings and COMEX inventory:
- As of January 2, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 98.84 MOz, down 0.1 MOz for the week, though holdings hover around the highest level since September 2022.
- Registered COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 19.362 MOz for the seventh straight day as of January 2.
COMEX Gold delivery:
- COMEX gold delivery amounted to 369 units in the week ending January 2, lowest weekly delivery volume since the third week of September.
CFTC data:
- Updated CFTC data shows that investors are increasing their net longs in several commodities, most notably of which are gold, gasoline, copper and silver as they increase their net long positions on commodities currencies like Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso.
Gold Price Outlook:
- Spot gold is expected to extend its rally on renewed safe haven demand. The Caribbean geopolitical situation will serve as an additional boost to the global central banks’ drive to increase gold’s share in their forex reserve holdings.
- Risk will come from the US ISM services, JOLTs and nonfarm payroll data. In addition, the CME could hike margins further to curb speculative instincts. Commodity Index rebalancing induced selling is yet another risk. Five-day Index rebalancing will begin from January 8.
- The metal may test the resistance at $4550. Dip buying is the favoured strategy.
- Support at $4393/$4296.Resistance is at $4472/$4550.
Silver outlook:
- Shaky looking silver caught fresh aggressive bids on Monday on geopolitical concerns.
- Total known global silver ETF holdings remain elevated at 863.79 MOz, highest since June 2022. Spot silver jumped over 5% on January 5.
- At the time of writing, the grey metal was trading at $77.63, up around 7% for the day. The MCX March Silver contract at Rs 247,455 was up 4.70%.
- One-month silver lease rate at 8.52% remains elevated and is at the highest since October 23.
- Healthy risk appetite is also boosting silver prices.
- Silver may test the resistance around $80/$81. A surge to $85 is not ruled out should the US Dollar soften.
- Support is at $75/$73.36/$72.50/$70. Resistance is at $78.69/$80.72/$85.
Risks include Index rebalancing selling, margin hikes and the US data as listed above; thus, dip buying remains the preferred strategy as the metal is quite extended at the current level(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
