The United States has destroyed roughly a third of Iran’s missile arsenal, according to a previously unreported intelligence assessment cited by Reuters, offering the clearest picture yet of the impact of nearly a month of sustained US-Israeli strikes. The assessment contrasts with public remarks by President Donald Trump, who said Iran had “very few rockets left”. Even as he hinted at progress in ceasefire talks, Trump acknowledged the risks posed by even a small number of surviving missiles, warning that “1% is unacceptable” given the potential damage to high-value targets such as commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.Five sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters that Washington can “only determine with certainty” that about one-third of Iran’s missiles have been eliminated. Another third is believed to have been damaged, buried or rendered inaccessible in underground facilities, though officials admit the true extent remains uncertain. The remaining stockpile—potentially still substantial—continues to fuel Iranian strikes on regional targets.
Intelligence gaps expose limits of US success
Despite the scale of the US campaign, officials concede that accurately measuring Iran’s remaining missile capability is inherently difficult, largely due to its extensive use of underground storage and launch systems.
- Around one-third of missiles are confirmed destroyed, according to US intelligence
- Another third likely damaged or buried in tunnels and bunkers
- Remaining inventory still operational, with potential for recovery post-conflict
One senior US official admitted: “I don’t know if we’ll ever have an accurate number,” pointing to the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s pre-war stockpile. Estimates vary widely from about 2,500 missiles cited by Israel to as many as 6,000 suggested by independent analysts.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also acknowledged the challenge, comparing Iran’s tunnel networks to those used by militant groups elsewhere. He said the US was targeting these systems “methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly,” though without offering precise figures on weapons destroyed.
‘Epic Fury’: Targeting Iran’s military backbone
The US-led campaign has focused not only on missile stockpiles but also on the infrastructure that sustains them.According to the US CENTCOM:
- More than 10,000 Iranian military targets have been struck
- 92% of Iran’s large naval vessels have been destroyed
- Over two-thirds of missile, drone and naval production facilities damaged or eliminated
- Missile and drone launch rates have dropped by over 90%
US forces have carried out more than 10,000 combat flights, including heavy bomber missions deploying up to 70,000 pounds of munitions. The strategy aims to cripple Iran’s ability to rebuild its arsenal, not just reduce its current stockpile.Still, Central Command has avoided specifying exactly how much of Iran’s missile and drone capability has been neutralised—reflecting the same intelligence uncertainties highlighted in the Reuters report.
Iran still striking as war risks widening
Despite the damage, Iran has continued to demonstrate its offensive reach. In one recent barrage, it fired ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf targets, while also expanding the range of its operations.
- Missiles and drones launched at the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia
- Ports in Kuwait reported material damage
- Long-range strike targeted the US-UK base at Diego Garcia
These attacks come as tensions escalate across multiple fronts. Israel has warned it will “escalate and expand” its strikes, targeting weapons production sites deep inside Iran, including in Tehran. Meanwhile, the conflict has spilled into Lebanon, with casualties reported after Israeli strikes in Beirut.At the same time, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Iran’s disruption of shipping has rattled global markets, with oil prices surging and fears of a broader energy crisis mounting. The US has pushed for a ceasefire proposal that includes reopening the waterway, while simultaneously deploying additional troops to the region.Humanitarian concerns are also growing. Aid agencies report widespread damage across Iran, with tens of thousands of civilian buildings hit and warnings that millions could be displaced if the conflict continues.
