Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has predicted that Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) company may reach a $2 trillion market capitalization next year. In the latest note to Tesla investors, Ives writes that heading into 2026 ‘marks a monster year for Tesla and Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins”. The EV company recently tested its unmanned robotaxis in Austin using its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, marking a key step toward full autonomy without human oversight. “We believe Tesla could reach a $2T market cap over the coming year and in a bull case scenario $3T by the end of 2026,” Ives said, adding “Heading into 2026 this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla and Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins.” “In our view we expect an accelerated Robotaxi launch across the US with importantly volume production of Cybercabs starting in the April/May timeframe. In a nutshell, we believe Tesla is taking major steps in advancing its AI Revolution path with autonomous and robotics front and center heading into 2026 that will be a “game changer and define Tesla’s future”,” he added.
Dan Ives calls Elon Musk ‘wartime CEO’
In the note, Dan Ives further said that Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as “wartime CEO” adding “we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities in 2026.” The analyst estimated that AI and autonomous opportunities are “worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla”. “..over the coming 3-6 months these key initiatives will now get fast tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump,” he continued. “We estimate that Tesla will own ~70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade as no other company in the world can match the scale and scope of Tesla coupled by its broadening AI footprint. We believe FSD penetration could increase to 50%+ and change the financial model/margins for Tesla looking ahead. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and $600 price target,” he concluded.
