US consumer confidence rose marginally in March even as fuel prices surged due to the Iran war, highlighting resilience in spending but growing concerns around inflation and economic outlook, according to AP.The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 91.8 in March from 91 in February, indicating a modest improvement despite rising cost pressures.While the headline number remained stable, underlying indicators pointed to rising anxiety among consumers. The survey noted increasing pessimism, particularly around inflation expectations, as oil and gas prices climbed sharply amid the Middle East conflict.Mentions of oil, gas and the war rose significantly in respondents’ feedback, while 12-month inflation expectations jumped to levels last seen in August 2025, when concerns over tariffs had peaked.US gasoline prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, with the national average reaching $4.02, according to AAA. Prices have risen by over $1 since the conflict began.“This is the key concern as the war in Iran enters the second month – will the oil price shock turn into a demand destruction shock?” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.She noted that consumer spending remained steady in March, based on credit card data, but warned that pressures could intensify in the coming months “as the worst of the inflation shock hits consumers.”A key gauge of short-term expectations for income, business conditions and employment declined by 1.7 points to 70.9 — the 14th straight month below 80, a level often associated with recession risks.In contrast, the index measuring current economic conditions rose 4.6 points to 123.3.Inflation remains elevated. Government data showed a key inflation gauge rose 2.8% in January, even before the recent surge in energy prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased to 3.1%, the highest in nearly two years.Elevated prices and the likelihood of further inflation due to the Iran war have reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.The Fed had cut rates three times in 2025 to support the labour market but has paused further action in recent meetings amid persistent inflation above its 2% target.Labour market signals remain mixed. While views on current employment conditions improved slightly, expectations for the next six months weakened.Data from the Labour Department showed US employers cut 92,000 jobs in February, contrary to expectations of job gains, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.Another report showed job openings declined to 6.9 million in February from 7.2 million in January.Economists describe the current labour market as “low hire, low fire”, with businesses cautious on hiring amid uncertainty over tariffs and high interest rates.Economic growth also slowed to 1.4% in the final quarter of last year, weighed down by a government shutdown and softer consumer spending.Survey data showed demand trends remain uneven. Plans to purchase cars increased in March, particularly for used vehicles, while homebuying expectations declined amid a prolonged housing slowdown.Expectations for stock market gains over the next year also dropped sharply, reflecting growing uncertainty among consumers.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the central bank is closely monitoring inflation risks arising from the spike in energy prices due to the Iran war, but cautioned that there is limited scope for policy intervention in such supply-driven shocks.Speaking at Harvard University before nearly 400 students, Powell said energy shocks typically tend to be short-lived and monetary policy works with a lag.He said policymakers must remain alert to shifts in inflation expectations. “You have to carefully monitor inflation expectations because you could have a series of big supply shocks and that can lead, you know, the public generally, businesses, price setters, households … to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t it?” Powell said, AP quoted.His remarks come as US gasoline prices approach $4 per gallon, reflecting rising global oil prices triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Powell noted that while inflation expectations remain contained for now, repeated shocks could pose a broader challenge to price stability.In his interaction, he also highlighted concerns around the labour market, particularly for young job seekers. While unemployment remains low, hiring activity has been subdued, creating what economists describe as a “low-hire, low-fire” environment.Employers added fewer than 10,000 jobs per month in 2025 — the weakest pace outside a recession since 2002. After a relatively strong start this year with 126,000 jobs added in January, the economy saw 92,000 job losses the following month.Powell said technological changes, including the rise of artificial intelligence, may also be influencing hiring decisions, particularly at entry-level roles.Despite near-term challenges, he expressed optimism about long-term economic prospects, noting that innovation has historically boosted productivity and living standards.“You’re in a situation where you need to really invest the time to master the use of these new technologies,” Powell said. “There’s no denying it’s a challenging time to enter the labor market, It may take some patience and all that, but in the longer term, this economy is going to give you great opportunities. Just be a little optimistic.”Powell also underscored the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve’s independence amid political pressures.“It’s very hard to build great democratic institutions and much easier to bring them down,” he said.The Fed chair’s comments come amid continued criticism from President Donald Trump, who has urged the central bank to cut interest rates. However, Powell reiterated that the Fed must remain focused on its mandate of price stability and maximum employment.“We have very powerful tools. They’re supposed to be for maximum employment and price stability and financial stability,” he said. “There’s always a time when an administration looks and say it would be good to use that tool for something else … We just have to be in a situation where we’re not trying to work against any politician or any administration, but we have to be careful to stick to what we’re doing.”

TOI Correspondent from Washington: In a city where monuments are usually carved in stone or cast in bronze, a new installation has boldly gone where no presidential tribute has gone before: into the toilet. Yes, a 10-foot golden toilet commode —titled with regal restraint “A Throne Fit for a King”—has appeared on the National Mall, courtesy of the guerrilla art collective known only as Secret Handshake. It is, according to its snarky creators, a tribute to Trump’s priorities. The sculpture satirizes the realtor-turned-President’s much-discussed White House renovations—particularly his decision to renovate the Lincoln bathroom and build a ballroom while the nation is wrestling with inflation and war.A plaque at the site helpfully explains the artistic vision, praising Trump as a “visionary who looked down, saw a problem, and painted it gold.” If the golden throne feels like a punchline, it’s only the latest in what has become a full-blown comedic universe of Trump satire. Earlier this month, Secret Handshake unveiled a towering sculpture depicting Trump and the late Jeffrey Epstein reenacting the iconic ship bow scene from the movie Titanic.Dubbed “King of the World,” the piece cast Trump in the Leonardo DiCaprio role—arms outstretched, wind in his trademark hair—while Epstein played his Kate Winslet counterpart. Before that came “Best Friends Forever,” a statue of Trump and Epstein skipping hand-in-hand like overgrown toddlers at a playdate.Taken together, the installations reveal something larger than any single sculpture: the meme-fication of a President who is the butt of jokes which are now turning into a joke of butts. He is, depending on whom you ask, either a misunderstood genius of branding or a walking meme template with a spray tan. His critics see him as the ultimate satirical muse—a man whose real-life pronouncements often sound like parody, requiring artists only to nudge reality a few inches further into absurdity.Indeed, the internet has embraced this ethos with gusto. Trump appears daily as everything from a Roman emperor to a fast-food mascot to a sentient gold-plated bathroom fixture. The potty installation also includes rolls of toilet paper branded with Secret Handshake’s name—because in modern political discourse, even the punchlines come with merch.Reactions to the artworks have been predictably polarized. Both Trump critics and his supporters snap selfies on it for different reasons. Critics applaud the installations as sharp political commentary and a triumph of free expression. Supporters meanwhile assert that he triggers the libs so hard they spend millions on golden toilets just to own him. Devoted to his bottom.line, some are even selling bootleg T-shirts featuring the toilet with the slogan “Even His Crap Is Classy.”

The Indian-flagged LPG tanker Pine Gas had to wait nearly three weeks before it could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran began allowing ships through the narrow waterway only selectively. The vessel had loaded cargo at the United Arab Emirates’ Ruwais port on February 28, a day before attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States. It was expected to reach India within a week, but the journey took much longer.Chief Officer Sohan Lal said the ship’s 27 Indian crew had seen missiles and drones flying overhead every day while waiting. In a video reviewed, at least five projectiles could be seen streaking through the night sky above the vessel.Indian officials had asked the crew to be on standby to set sail around March 11. However, with the conflict escalating, the ship was only cleared to move on March 23, but not through the normal Hormuz shipping lanes.Instead, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) instructed the tanker to navigate a narrow channel north of Larak Island off Iran’s coast.“They needed a yes or a no from all crew,” Lal said. “Everyone onboard agreed.” He added that the Larak route, not generally used by shipping, was recommended by the IRGC as the regular passage through Hormuz was mined.Lal said the Indian Navy guided the ship during the transit, and four Indian warships then escorted it for nearly 20 hours from the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea. He added that they did not pay a fee for the passage and that the IRGC did not board the vessel at any time.The Indian Navy confirmed it was escorting Indian-flagged ships after they crossed the strait. The foreign ministry said this month that the Indian Navy has been present in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea for years to secure sea lanes for Indian and other ships.India relies heavily on seaborne imports of liquefied petroleum gas, with hundreds of millions of households using it for cooking. The Pine Gas, carrying 45,000 metric tons of LPG, was originally scheduled to unload at the west coast port of Mangalore, but Indian authorities directed it to discharge equal volumes at the eastern ports of Visakhapatnam and Haldia.Iran has said it has permitted “friendly nations” including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan passage through the Strait of Hormuz. While six Indian ships have exited the strait, 18 Indian-flagged vessels carrying around 485 Indian seafarers remain in the Persian Gulf.

In a span of just a month, BSE Sensex is down over 9,300 points or 11.48%! (AI image)

Blood bath on Dalal Street, foreign investors’ exodus, mass selloff, several lakh crore of investors’ wealth wiped out – these are the headlines that have dominated financial news this month. The US-Israel-Iran war has dealt a massive blow to the Indian stock market indices BSE Sensex and Nifty50 which were already struggling for the last few months after Donald Trump announced tariffs.With global crude oil prices rising to levels not seen in several years, the inflationary impact globally and its resultant blow to GDP growth has kept investors on tenterhooks forcing them to flee riskier assets like equities.The selloff by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has been particularly pronounced. Rupee has seen its worst financial year in over 14 years, breaching the 95 per dollar mark in trade on the last trading day (March 30) of the fiscal year.At the start of the new financial year 2026-27, what’s the outlook for BSE Sensex and Nifty50? When will foreign investors become net investors?

Sensex & Nifty Round-Up – Facts & Figures: A Telling Picture

Analysts are of the view that the risk aversion seen in stock markets in March is one of the worst since the Covid pandemic back in 2020.

Why are foreign institutional investors rushing out of India?

Experts say the factors driving the current selloff is a mix of factors: attractive valuations in developed markets, rupee depreciation, recent US-Iran war which has driven up global crude oil prices.Pabitro Mukherjee, Associate Vice President – Technical Research Bajaj Broking blames external factors for this month’s exodus.“The current wave of FPI outflows has been primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which have triggered a global “risk-off” sentiment. This has been further compounded by macroeconomic pressures, including a weakening Indian Rupee breaching ₹95/USD, and a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has heightened inflation concerns and widened the current account deficit,” he told TOI.

“These factors appear largely external and cyclical in nature, linked to global uncertainty and risk aversion rather than domestic structural weaknesses,” he believes.Tanvi Kanchan, Associate Director at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited explains that with Brent crude prices above $100, a classic risk-off move has been fuelled. This has been compounded by the rupee hovering near ₹92-95 against the dollar, elevated US bond yields, and a mixed Q4 earnings outlook.Rising US bond yields and tightening global liquidity have improved the relative attractiveness of developed market fixed income, prompting reallocation away from emerging markets including India, she tells TOI.She is also of the view that most of these drivers are cyclical, not structural – the West Asia conflict, crude spike, and dollar strength are external shocks. “India’s domestic fundamentals, 7%+ GDP growth, fiscal consolidation, and a robust DII ecosystem, remain intact. The one structurally evolving factor is FPI reassessment of IT earnings amid AI disruption, which will take 12-18 months to play out,” she opines.What’s spooking investors is the possible economic fallout of the persistent Middle East crisis.“Approximately 70-80% of the selling is externally driven on the backs of weakness in global equity markets following the West Asia war, steady rupee depreciation, fears of declining Gulf remittances, and the impact of high crude on India’s growth and corporate earnings are all contributing to sustained FPI selling. FPIs were also sellers in other emerging markets like Taiwan and South Korea, confirming this is a global risk-off move, not an India-specific rejection,” says Tanvi Kanchan.

Also, domestically, Indian valuations continue to remain relatively elevated compared to several emerging market peers, which may still be prompting selective profit-booking and reallocation, but this is a secondary factor, not the primary driver, she adds.One pointer of structural strength is the continued faith that domestic investors are showing. “While domestic institutional investors have shown strong participation, with record buying of ₹1.28 lakh crore, their support has only partially offset the scale of FPI selling, indicating that global developments are the dominant influence in the current phase,” says Pabitro Mukherjee.For Tanvi Kanchan, the silver lining is DIIs, whose monthly SIP inflows of Rs 30,000 crore and deployable mutual fund cash of around $6 billion provide a strong floor, preventing a disorderly market collapse.

What’s The Road Ahead?

Experts are of the view that the FII selling may continue through the first half of financial year 2026-27, with a clearer trend reversal possibly emerging only in the second half. However, market analysts believe in the fundamental strength of India’s economic growth story and believe that the market remains structurally sound, with possible signs of optimism emerging once the immediate war settles down and crude oil prices come below $100 per below.“FII inflows are expected to be majorly skewed towards H2FY27 because H1 earnings will be impacted by the war scenario. Key reversal signals to watch would be crude oil dropping sustainably below $90/barrel; the rupee stabilising below ₹91-92; a ceasefire or de-escalation in West Asia; Q4FY26 earnings reaffirming growth visibility for FY27; and the US Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts,” Tanvi Kanchan says.

The persistence of foreign selling is closely tied to the continuation of global risk-off sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty. As long as these conditions remain elevated, FPI outflows are likely to continue.A reversal would likely be indicated by easing geopolitical tensions, stabilisation in crude oil prices, and improvement in currency stability, which would collectively help restore investor confidence, says Pabitro Mukherjee.So when will FIIs be back on D-Street? According to Tanvi Kanchan, going forward, the key conditions are:

She explains that a combination of external easing and domestic policy action is needed. “On the external side we see crude oil cooling, US yield moderation, and West Asia de-escalation. On the domestic side, February 2026 showed what works, the combination of an interim India-US trade framework reducing tariff uncertainty, the Union Budget retaining fiscal credibility with a 4.3% deficit target, and valuation comfort after earlier corrections brought Rs 22,615 crore back in a single month,” the Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers expert says.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

India is set to receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil since 2019, with a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels of oil en route to Gujarat following a temporary sanctions waiver by the US, according to PTI.Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessel Ping Shun is headed towards Vadinar port, marking a potential revival of Indo-Iran oil trade after nearly five years.“The Indo-Iranian oil trade has flickered back to life. Following the US administration’s decision to grant a 30-day window for Iranian oil “on the water” due to regional conflict, the vessel Ping Shun is now en route to Vadinar (in Gujarat) with 600,000 barrels of crude. This is the first such delivery since May 2019 and comes at a critical time for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.The development follows Washington’s decision earlier this month to allow a 30-day window for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, aimed at easing global oil prices amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The window is set to expire on April 19.While the buyer of the cargo remains unidentified, Vadinar houses a 20 million tonnes per annum refinery operated by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and also serves as a landing point for crude supplies to inland refineries such as BPCL’s Bina unit.India’s oil ministry has so far maintained that any decision to resume imports from Iran will depend on techno-commercial viability.Before sanctions were tightened in 2018, India was among the largest buyers of Iranian crude, importing both Iran Light and Iran Heavy grades due to refinery compatibility and favourable pricing terms.Imports ceased in May 2019 after US sanctions were reimposed, with India shifting to alternative suppliers including the Middle East and the US. At its peak, Iranian crude accounted for 11.5 per cent of India’s total imports.India had imported about 518,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2018, which declined to 268,000 bpd between January and May 2019 during a sanctions waiver period before dropping to zero thereafter.“The Aframax Ping Shun (IMO 9231901) loaded with Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island in early March has emerged as the first vessel observed signalling a destination of Vadinar, India since May 2019, following sanction reimposition on Iranian oil by the first Trump administration,” Ritolia said.The tanker is estimated to have loaded around 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island around March 4 and is expected to reach Vadinar on April 4.An estimated 95 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently stored on vessels at sea, of which around 51 million barrels could be supplied to India, while the rest may be directed to China and Southeast Asian markets.However, payment mechanisms remain uncertain as Iran continues to be excluded from the SWIFT global banking system, complicating international transactions.Earlier, payments were routed in euros through Turkish banks, but that channel is no longer available following renewed sanctions restrictions.Iran was first disconnected from SWIFT in 2012 due to EU sanctions over its nuclear programme, with further disruptions in 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions, limiting its ability to receive payments and access foreign currency reserves.

NEW DELHI: Trinamool Congress leader Abhishek Banerjee on Tuesday launched a sharp attack on the BJP, accusing it of attempting to manipulate West Bengal’s electoral roll ahead of the 2026 assembly polls.Addressing a rally in Balurghat in support of TMC candidate Arpita Ghosh, Banerjee alleged a “conspiracy to change Bengal’s demography”, claiming that voters from BJP-ruled states were being brought into the state. “Efforts are being made to ensure that the people of Bengal cannot exercise their democratic rights. Voters are being brought into different parts of Bengal from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh,” he said, adding that he had lodged a complaint with the Election Commission.The TMC national general secretary also turned his fire on the BJP’s governance record in Balurghat, represented by a BJP MP and MLA for over five years. Without naming Union minister Sukanta Majumdar, he challenged the party to present a “report card”. “No one has experienced the so-called double-engine government more than the people of Balurghat… yet they have not been able to bring even 10 paise of additional funds or development,” he said.Banerjee contrasted this with the state government’s welfare schemes, pointing to initiatives such as Lakshmir Bhandar, Pathashree and Yuva Sathi. He claimed that benefits under these schemes had reached people directly, adding that funds under Yuva Sathi were transferred within 15 days of announcement. Taking aim at BJP promises to expand financial assistance schemes, he said, “I challenge them to first implement such a scheme in any BJP-ruled state… if they can do that, I will stop campaigning for the TMC.”The attack was echoed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who alleged that the BJP was attempting to include “illegal voters” from states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana in Bengal’s electoral rolls. She claimed that thousands of applications had been submitted in a single day and accused the party of using similar tactics elsewhere.Mamata Banerjee also accused the BJP of colluding with the Election Commission and deleting names of genuine voters, particularly women and minorities, during the revision process. She described the exercise as “illegal, unconstitutional and fundamentally undemocratic”, warning that people would resist any attempt to “squeeze in illegal voters”.