Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said India stands out in debt management among major economies, with an overall debt-to-GDP ratio of about 81%, even as the global economy faces rising volatility and uncertainty, PTI reported.Speaking at an event organised by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), Sitharaman warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict has evolved into a “systemic tremor threatening vital arteries of global energy”.She said the global economic environment is increasingly marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, alongside a sharp surge in public debt across countries.“World economy witnessing volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; global public debt has surged,” the finance minister said.On India’s fiscal position, Sitharaman noted that the country remains relatively well-placed compared to other major economies in terms of debt sustainability.“India stands out in debt management with overall debt-to-GDP ratio at 81 per cent, lowest among major economies,” she said.The finance minister also said India has sufficient fiscal space to respond to emerging challenges.“India has fiscal space; there’s room to support affected sectors, expand capex, and interest rate cut by RBI,” she said.Sitharaman underlined that geopolitical tensions, particularly in West Asia, are not just regional disruptions but have wider implications for global energy supply chains and economic stability.“Middle East conflict evolved into systemic tremor threatening vital arteries of global energy,” she said.Her remarks come at a time when global markets are grappling with elevated crude oil prices, supply chain disruptions and tightening financial conditions driven by geopolitical conflicts.

MPC meet begins amid inflation concerns

The Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel on Monday began its three-day deliberations for the first bi-monthly monetary policy of the fiscal, with expectations of a status quo on the benchmark lending rate amid concerns of a potential spike in inflation due to the ongoing Middle East crisis.The outcome of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.The RBI has reduced the policy rate by a cumulative 125 basis points since February 2025, marking its most aggressive easing cycle since 2019. The last cut of 25 basis points came in December, while the central bank maintained a pause in its February policy.Experts said the MPC will factor in geopolitical tensions in Middle East, volatility in commodity prices and sharp currency movements, which have impacted the rupee.While retail inflation has moved closer to the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, the recent surge in global crude oil prices has raised concerns about second-round effects on domestic prices, especially fuel, transportation and core inflation.Estimates suggest that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices can push inflation higher by up to 0.60%. Crude, which had hovered around $60 per barrel for an extended period, has risen above $100 since the conflict began in late February.The rupee has also depreciated by over 4% since the start of the war, adding to imported inflation pressures.

Inflation targeting framework

The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of +/-2%, for another five-year period ending March 2031.India adopted the inflation-targeting framework in 2016, with the MPC tasked to maintain annual inflation at 4% within a band of 2% to 6%. The framework has continued since then. As per the latest data, retail inflation rose to 3.21% in February from 2.74% in January.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the ongoing war in Iran could trigger oil and commodity price shocks, keeping inflation elevated and pushing interest rates higher than current market expectations, Reuters reported.The warning came in his annual letter to shareholders, a day after US President Donald Trump escalated pressure on Iran by threatening to target key infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.“Now, because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect,” Dimon said, news agency Reuters quoted as saying. Dimon, who has led JPMorgan for two decades, also highlighted broader geopolitical risks, including the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East and friction with China.“The challenges we all face are significant,” he added.He said it remains uncertain whether the Iran war will achieve US objectives, while warning that nuclear proliferation remains the biggest risk linked to Iran.Markets have already begun pricing in these risks, with expectations of interest rate cuts this year largely fading amid rising inflation concerns triggered by the conflict.Last week, the benchmark S&P 500 index recorded its worst quarterly performance since 2022, weighed down by rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty since late February.Dimon noted that the US economy remains resilient, with consumers continuing to earn and spend, and businesses staying broadly healthy, though signs of weakening have emerged.He cautioned that economic strength has been supported by significant government deficit spending and past stimulus, while infrastructure investment needs continue to grow.At the same time, he pointed to positives such as fiscal stimulus under President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”, deregulation policies and rising capital expenditure driven by artificial intelligence.On financial stability, Dimon said the $1.8-trillion private credit market “probably” does not pose a systemic risk, despite investor concerns and recent withdrawals from such funds.However, he warned that in a downturn, losses across leveraged lending could exceed expectations as credit standards have weakened.Private credit markets also lack transparency and rigorous valuation benchmarks, increasing the risk of investor exits if conditions worsen, he said.Separately, Dimon criticised revised US capital rules, including Basel III and GSIB surcharge norms, calling aspects of the proposals “nonsensical” and “very flawed”.He said JPMorgan’s GSIB surcharge would fall only to 5.0%, a level he described as “absurd” and “un-American”, arguing it penalises the bank’s scale and performance.

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty staged a sharp rebound on Monday after early losses, supported by a correction in crude oil prices and strong buying in banking stocks.The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 787.30 points, or 1.07%, to settle at 74,106.85. During the session, it climbed as much as 887.91 points, or 1.21%, to 74,207.46.The 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 255.15 points, or 1.12%, to close at 22,968.25, nearing the 23,000 mark.

Nifty50 top gainers

Nifty50 top losers

BSE Sensex top gainers

BSE Sensex top losers

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.71% to USD 108.3 per barrel, offering some relief to markets.Asian markets ended mostly higher, with South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 closing in the green, while Hong Kong and Shanghai markets remained shut for a holiday.“Domestic equities staged a strong rally as value buying gained traction across the board. Crude prices softened marginally on reports of ceasefire efforts, while encouraging provisional banking data supported interest in rate-sensitive segments,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.He added that overall risk appetite remains cautious amid inflation concerns and potential disruptions to global trade.“Today’s recovery was driven primarily by a modest pullback in crude oil prices, with Brent slipping below the USD 105 mark amid reports of a proposed temporary ceasefire from Middle East mediators. Additionally, domestic institutional investors continued to provide stability at lower levels, absorbing selling pressure and supporting the broader market structure,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 9,931.13 crore on Thursday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 7,208.41 crore, as per exchange data.

The Supreme Court of India on Monday declined to stay proceedings in a plea filed by Vedanta Limited challenging the approval of AdGroup’s resolution plan for the takeover of insolvent Jaiprakash Associates Limited.A Bench led by Chief Justice of India Surya Kant observed that since the appeal is likely to be decided shortly by the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT), and Vedanta’s interests have been adequately safeguarded through interim measures, there was no necessity to grant any interim relief.“The appeal is likely to be addressed soon, and we see no legal necessity to issue any interim direction,” the Court noted, while requesting the NCLAT to hear the matter on an out-of-turn basis on the scheduled date or immediately thereafter if arguments remain incomplete.The NCLAT is scheduled to hear Vedanta petition on Friday 10th April.Vedanta, in its petition, has challenged the decision of the Committee of Creditors (CoC) to accept Adani Group‘s resolution plan. It contended that its revised addendum bid offers over Rs 3,400 crore higher gross value compared to Adani’s proposal.Senior Advocate Kapil Sibal appeared for Vedanta, while Senior Advocate Mukul Rohatgi represented Adani Group. Tushar Mehta appeared on behalf of the lenders’ consortium (CoC) at the apex court.During the hearing, Vedanta submitted that it proposed to pay Rs 17,926 crore to creditors, as against Rs 14,535 crore under Adani’s plan. It argued that the CoC was effectively accepting a resolution plan that was around Rs 3,000 crore lower in value. However, the CoC countered that the practical difference between the two bids would amount to only about Rs 500 crore.The Court recorded submissions that the matter is listed before the NCLAT this week, and implementation of the resolution plan would take approximately 50 days, with little likely to change in the interim period of a few days.Observing that the NCLAT interim order had already addressed Vedanta’s concerns, the Supreme Court stated it would not halt the process at this stage. It added that any policy decision taken by the resolution professional or monitoring committee during this period must be in accordance with law and subject to NCLAT’s approval.The apex court further noted that the resolution process remains subject to approval by the adjudicating authority, and emphasised that if any action outside the legal framework is undertaken, appropriate recourse would be available.Both sides agreed before the apex court for an expeditious hearing before the NCLAT.