Precious metal prices in India are expected to remain moderately strong in fiscal year 2026–27, supported by ongoing global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, fears of trade wars and concerns about a possible global recession are likely to boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, high interest rates may limit sharp price gains. The outlook comes after a strong performance in FY26. Silver futures jumped by Rs 1,41,431, or 142.2%, rising from Rs 99,461 per kg on April 1, 2025. Gold also rose sharply by Rs 60,258, or 67%, from Rs 90,503 per 10 grams during the same period. This strong rise was driven by several global factors, including trade tensions linked to Trump’s tariff policies, geopolitical issues, strong buying by central banks, limited supply and overall global economic uncertainty. “The outlook for gold and silver for fiscal 2026-27 will remain moderately bullish. Since the global economy is going through a rough patch due to geopolitical tensions, trade wars and fear of global recession, demand for safe-haven assets will rise,” Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking told PTI in an interview. Even after strong gains, prices saw a sharp fall towards the end of FY26. In March, gold fell by Rs 11,343, or 7%, while silver dropped by Rs 41,752, or 15% on the Multi Commodity Exchange. On this correction, he said, “Historically gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset will likely increase in the second phase of war situations when dollar gains get limited.” However, he added that if interest rates in the US and other major economies stay high for longer, it could limit further upside in bullion prices. Silver’s strong performance in FY26 was supported by a supply shortage that has continued for five years, rising demand from solar panels and electric vehicles, and higher investment through ETFs, which increased price movements in the smaller silver market. Looking ahead, silver is expected to stay moderately strong in FY27. Domestic prices may range between Rs 2.75–3.5 lakh per kg, depending on currency movements. In global markets, silver could trade between $85 and $100 per ounce. For gold, demand from central banks is expected to remain an important support factor. Purchases are likely to average 750–850 tonnes in 2026 and stay stable in 2027. “Economies such as India, Poland and Turkey will continue to lead the charge as they are replacing US dollar reserves with gold to bolster monetary sovereignty and hedge against geopolitical sanctions,” he added. In crude oil, supply is expected to rise in FY27 due to higher production from non-OPEC countries and slower global demand. This may reduce inflation, which can put pressure on gold and silver. A stronger rupee due to lower oil prices may also make precious metals cheaper in India. The US dollar is expected to remain unstable due to uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. A stronger dollar, however, could limit gains, especially in silver. Overall, prices are expected to stay supported by global risks, central bank buying and industrial demand, even though volatility is likely to continue.

India is stepping up efforts to secure fertiliser supplies, with plans to import 2.5 million metric tonnes of urea as it works to stabilise availability in the domestic market amid tightening conditions linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.This comes as ongoing tensions in the Middle East have been disrupting global energy flows and shipping routes, creating ripple effects across supply chains. As global markets remain unsettled, the pressure on fertiliser supply chains has increased, prompting India, world’s largest urea importer, to safeguard availability and prevent any shortfall at a critical time.State-owned Indian Potash Ltd (IPL) has floated a tender for the procurement, with 1.5 million tonnes scheduled to be brought in through the west coast and 1 million tonnes through the east coast, according to details published on the company’s website. The shipments are expected to be loaded by June 14, while bids for the tender are due by April 15, Reuters reported.The imports are critical as the country continues to rely on global tenders to meet its urea demand, particularly ahead of the key sowing period that begins in June with the onset of the monsoon. The fertiliser is essential for crops such as rice, maize and soybeans.Agriculture remains a major part of the Indian economy, with the country also importing other key fertilisers including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and muriate of potash, along with liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is used in domestic urea production. The Middle East supplies about half of India’s DAP and urea imports, with Saudi Arabia being the largest supplier of DAP and Oman the leading supplier of urea.Separately, the government has moved to raise gas supply to urea manufacturing plants to around 90% of their average consumption starting Monday, compared with the current level of 70–75 per cent.The increase has been justified on the basis of available inventories and scheduled LNG cargo arrivals. Authorities have also decided to enhance gas allocation to industrial and commercial users, including city gas distribution networks, by an additional 10% from Monday.“All industrial consumers, including fertiliser plants, have been advised to provide their additional requirement on spot basis so that the same may be arranged by the gas marketing companies,” an official statement said.According to the fertiliser ministry, domestic urea production fell to 18 lakh tonnes in March from an earlier average of 24 lakh tonnes, though output is expected to improve with higher LNG availability and more frequent spot purchases.

Saudi Arabia has raised the price of its main crude grade for Asian buyers to a record high, as the Middle East conflict enters its sixth week and continues to disrupt global energy flows worldwide.The kingdom’s oil giant Saudi Aramco has set the cost of its Arab Light crude for May sales to Asia at a premium of $19.50 per barrel over the benchmark. However, even with this hike, the premium is still lower than the $40 per barrel expected by traders and refiners in a Bloomberg survey.The move comes amid escalating tensions in the region, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. Earlier on Saturday, US President Donald Trump had threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure if it does not opens the Strait. In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, he said, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” He later told Fox News there was a “good chance” Iran would agree to a deal on Monday. Iran also hit back sharply, threatening that it will react “in kind,” in case its sites are attacked. “Our armed forces have made it clear that in case Iran’s infrastructure is attacked, we would react in kind,” Esmail Baghaei said.As the crisis continues to boil, oil prices have stayed well above the $100 per barrel cost, jumping to $110. Brent crude prices have risen by more than 50%, with fuel prices also increasing across the US, Europe and Asia.On Monday, West Texas Intermediate rose 1.86% to $113.62 per barrel in early trade, while Brent crude gained 1.16% to $110.30 per barrel, staying above the $100 mark.Markets had already reacted before the weekend. On Thursday, ahead of Good Friday, both oil benchmarks saw sharp gains. WTI rose more than 11%, while Brent climbed nearly 8%, marking their biggest increases since 2020 after signals that attacks on Iran would continue.

Why are bond yields rising?Bond yields are climbing due to a combination of rising crude oil prices and a weakening rupee, both of which add to inflationary pressures. India’s 10-year benchmark yield has risen to around 7% from 6.68% a month ago. Crude oil prices have surged to $115–$120 per barrel, and with India importing nearly 85% of its oil needs, higher prices feed directly into domestic inflation through increased transportation and production costs. At the same time, the rupee has depreciated to around 95 against the US dollar, making imports more expensive. In such an environment, investors demand higher yields to compensate for inflation and currency risks. Tightening liquidity conditions and expectations of higher interest rates further push bond prices lower and yields higher. When bond prices fall, yields rise and vice versa.Impact of rising yields on debt MFsThe impact varies depending on the type of fund and the maturity of securities it holds. Long-duration funds, such as gilt and long-term bond funds, are the most affected. These funds invest in bonds with longer maturities, making them more sensitive to interest rate movements. Even a small rise in yields can lead to sharper price declines, resulting in noticeable short-term losses. Short-duration funds, such as liquid, ultra-short, and low-duration funds, are far less impacted. Since they invest in short-maturity instruments, price fluctuations are limited. As older securities mature, these funds are able to invest in newer bonds offering higher interest rates, which gradually improves their returns. According to Value Research data, values of long-duration funds have shrunk about 2.5% over the past three months. Gilt funds are down around 1.4%, while dynamic bond funds have seen relatively limited declines of about 0.4% over the same period.What should investors do?Investors in long duration or gilt funds should avoid panic selling if their investment horizon is 3–5 years. Over time, accrual income and potential yield softening can help offset interim losses. For investors with a shorter time horizon, such as less than a year, liquid and ultra-short duration funds are more suitable. These funds carry lower interest rate risk and offer relatively stable returns. Investors looking to benefit from potential capital appreciation in gilt funds should wait for clearer signs of stability in crude oil prices.

Rupee stood firm on Monday, gaining 33 paise to reach 92.85 against the US dollar in early trade. This follows intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, as the bank stepped in to support the currency. The RBI tightened norms to curb speculative positions and capped banks’ net open positions at $100 million, even as global developments continued to pose risks. The currency opened weak in the interbank foreign exchange market, at 93.13 against the greenback but strengthened as trading progressed, touching 92.85. The gain comes after a strong showing in the previous session on Thursday, when the currency surged 152 paise to close at 93.18, one of its sharpest single-day rises in recent years, following a series of steps by the central bank to tighten rules in the onshore forward market. Markets were shut on Friday for Good Friday. The RBI’s decision to cap banks’ net open positions at $100 million is seen as part of a broader effort to limit speculative bets, with traders indicating that the impact of these measures is beginning to reflect in the rupee’s movement. Despite the uptick, underlying pressures remain. Forex market participants pointed to continued foreign capital outflows, a strengthening US dollar, and firm crude oil prices as factors weighing on the domestic currency. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has added to the cautious sentiment. Tensions on the global front intensified after US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran, setting a deadline until Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cautioning that non-compliance could trigger attacks on its power infrastructure. Offering a near-term outlook, CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said, “On one side, RBI’s actions are clearly working. As banks continue to unwind dollar positions ahead of the April 10 deadline, the rupee may strengthen further toward the 91.50–92.00 range.” He also flagged the risks ahead, saying that persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices could once again strain India’s macroeconomic indicators. “In that scenario, the rupee may find it difficult to sustain gains and could move back toward the 94.00 levels after stabilizing at lower levels. But the bigger picture remains clear volatility is here to stay,” he said. Elsewhere, the dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.14 per cent to 100.17. Brent crude futures were also higher, rising 0.66% to $109.75 per barrel. Domestic equity markets opened on a weak note, with the Sensex down 270.13 points at 73,049.42, while the Nifty slipped 93.60 points to 22,619.50. Data from the exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Thursday, offloading equities worth Rs 9,931.13 crore.

Oil prices began the week on a strong note, maintaining above the $100 per barrel mark on Monday, as the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy supply routes and unsettle global markets.In early trade, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 1.86% to $113.62 per barrel. North Sea Brent crude also edged higher, rising 1.16% to $110.30 per barrel at the market open.The gains come as tensions involving Iran and the United States continue to escalate. US President Donald Trump issued a Tuesday deadline for Iran to halt the war and restore movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil shipments. In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, he warned of potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the demands were not met.“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” Trump wrote. He later told Fox News there was a “good chance” Iran would agree to a deal on Monday.Meanwhile, markets had already reacted sharply before the weekend. On Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday holiday, both major crude benchmarks recorded steep gains in volatile trading. WTI ended the session up by more than 11%, while Brent rose nearly 8%, marking their largest absolute price increases since 2020, after Trump signalled that attacks on Iran would continue.Separately, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day, which will come into effect in May 2026. The decision followed a virtual meeting held on April 5 by eight OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, to review market conditions and assess the outlook.The Strait of Hormuz has remained under Iran’s chokehold since the conflict erupted on February 28, severely disrupting a key route for oil and petroleum exports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Now in its sixth week since initial strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, the war has widened across the region and unsettled the global economy. With Iran effectively blocking the Strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically passes, supplies have been hit hard, driving petroleum prices higher and forcing refiners to turn to alternative sources, particularly physical cargoes from the United States and the UK North Sea.

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to increase oil production quotas for the second consecutive month, while cautioning that damage to energy infrastructure amid ongoing conflicts could disrupt global supplies for an extended period, AFP reported.The oil cartel decided to raise output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May, with key producers including Russia, Saudi Arabia and several Gulf nations backing the move.However, OPEC+ warned that repairing energy facilities damaged in conflict zones is “costly and takes a long time”, adding that such disruptions could heighten volatility in global oil markets.The group also stressed “the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy”.While the statement did not directly mention the Iran war, the ongoing conflict has significantly impacted global energy markets and contributed to a sharp rise in oil prices.Since February 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Tehran has retaliated by targeting locations across the region, including key energy infrastructure.Iran has also effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by threatening to attack tankers passing without permission, severely restricting exports from the Gulf region.Before the conflict, nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passed through the Strait, making it a critical artery for global energy trade.The disruption has raised concerns over whether increased production by OPEC+ members can translate into actual supply reaching global markets.Meanwhile, Ukraine has also been targeting Russian oil facilities as part of its ongoing conflict with Moscow, further complicating global supply dynamics.Last month, the eight-member Voluntary Eight (V8) group within OPEC+ had also raised production quotas by 206,000 bpd.In its statement, the V8 warned that “any actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility” and complicate efforts to manage global oil prices.The group — comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman–also acknowledged members that managed to find alternative export routes, noting that such efforts have helped reduce market volatility.

India’s gold imports rose 28.73% to $69 billion during April-February 2025-26, driven by elevated prices of the precious metal, according to Commerce Ministry data cited by PTI.Gold imports had stood at $53.52 billion in the corresponding period of 2024-25.The sharp rise in imports contributed to a widening trade deficit, which increased to $310.60 billion in the 11-month period of the last fiscal from $261.80 billion a year earlier.Prices of gold are currently hovering around Rs 1,51,500 per 10 grams (inclusive of all taxes) in the national capital.Switzerland remained the largest source of gold imports with around 40% share, followed by the UAE (over 16%) and South Africa (about 10%).Gold accounts for more than 5% of India’s total imports. Imports from Switzerland rose 11.57% to $23.5 billion during April-February 2025-26, while in February alone, imports from the country surged 719.30% year-on-year to $2.71 billion.India is the world’s second-largest gold consumer after China, with imports largely catering to demand from the jewellery sector. These inflows also have implications for the country’s current account deficit (CAD).According to RBI data, CAD rose to $13.2 billion, or 1.3% of GDP, in the December quarter from $11.3 billion (1.1% of GDP) a year ago, mainly due to a higher trade deficit.However, for April-December 2025, CAD moderated to $30.1 billion (1% of GDP) compared to $36.6 billion (1.3% of GDP) in the same period of the previous year.Silver imports during April-February jumped 142.87% to $11.43 billion. Silver is widely used in industries such as electronics, automobiles and pharmaceuticals.To curb imports, the government last week imposed restrictions on all forms of gold, silver and platinum articles.