On the reforms front, the central government and the RBI’s focus on boosting consumption over the last one year is commendable. (AI image)

By Gautam DuggadAs India gears up for its Union Budget in February 2026, the crucial question is whether the upcoming fiscal blueprint will focus solely on fiscal consolidation amid weak revenue growth or establish a foundation for a sustainable growth trajectory that enables India to achieve a real GDP growth rate exceeding 7% in FY27.We believe the upcoming budget could be historic. By shifting the focus from fiscal deficit targets to the debt-to-GDP ratio, the government may create more room for spending.On the reforms front, the central government and the RBI’s focus on boosting consumption over the last one year is commendable. After introducing income tax cuts, revising GST rates, and implementing a 100bp repo rate cut in CY25, it is reasonable to assume that the 2026-2027 budget will further intensify efforts to support consumption. This approach is especially important given the persistence of global headwinds. We expect the budget to simplify the personal income tax system through the much-anticipated introduction of the tax deducted at source (TDS) mechanism. Currently, varying TDS rates and multiple thresholds lead to disputes and complicate compliance. We anticipate lower rates and a threshold structure to be proposed in the budget. While this will ease the compliance burden, it will more importantly increase take-home salaries—a direct boost to household consumption. This reform initiative should also be considered alongside the 8th Pay Commission salary hike for 5 million employees and over 6.5 million pensioners, likely to take effect from January 2026.That said, consumption-led growth alone would not suffice. India also needs to strengthen its manufacturing base. In 2Q FY26, manufacturing surged 9.1% YoY. However, several sectors — including MSMEs, textiles, auto, jewellery, and shrimp exports — are facing pressures from tariff disruptions and export headwinds. We anticipate tax relief measures for the affected sectors. Additionally, credit guarantees could be provided to offer partial support, helping to preserve jobs and maintain output. A third pillar for broadening growth prospects can come from capital markets and banks. First, the budget must commit to regulatory stability — providing certainty to derivative markets, mutual funds, brokerage commissions, and distribution networks that undergird India’s retail and institutional participation. Recently, brokerage firms and asset management companies (AMCs) have been repeatedly forced to redesign business plans due to rapid regulatory shifts. Second, the government’s agenda should include the expedited strategic disinvestment of select state-owned banks. This can be complemented by aligning the retirement norms of PSU management with private sector standards and introducing performance-linked ESOP ownership in PSU banks.In short, if the 2026–27 budget combines a simplified TDS regime (boosting consumption), targeted support for manufacturing, and reforms in banking and capital markets, it could deliver a dual benefit: reviving demand now and building a strong, trust-based foundation for long-term growth.(Gautam Duggad is Director & Head of Research, Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The views are personal.)

US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order designating illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemicals as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), placing the synthetic opioid in the same category as nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The move marks a dramatic escalation in Washington’s response to the fentanyl crisis, reframing the drug not just as a public health emergency but as a national security threat.The White House said the designation would “unleash every available tool” against the criminal networks responsible for producing and trafficking fentanyl, warning that the substance could be weaponised for mass-casualty attacks by organised adversaries.“Illicit fentanyl is closer to a chemical weapon than a narcotic,” the executive order said, pointing to its extreme potency and the scale of deaths linked to its spread across the United States.

What Is Fentanyl?

Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid approved by the FDA for pain management and anesthesia. It is extremely potent—about 100 times stronger than morphine and 50 times stronger than heroin. Developed in 1959 and introduced medically in the 1960s, fentanyl is legally manufactured in the United States, but both pharmaceutical and illicit forms are widely misused.Illicitly produced fentanyl and its analogs have driven a sharp rise in overdose deaths. According to CDC data, deaths involving synthetic opioids (excluding methadone) increased from about 2,600 annually in 2011–2012 to more than 71,000 in 2021, totaling over 260,000 deaths from 2013–2021. This surge closely mirrors increased trafficking and distribution of illicit fentanyl.On the street, fentanyl may appear as powder or counterfeit pills and is often mixed with heroin or cocaine. Common street names include China Girl, King Ivory, and Tango & Cash. Fentanyl can be injected, smoked, snorted, or taken orally.

What makes Fentanyl dangerous?

Fentanyl is a fully synthetic opioid, approved for limited medical use but overwhelmingly produced illegally for the black market. Its lethality lies in its strength: as little as two milligrams — roughly the equivalent of a few grains of salt — can be fatal. US authorities say this makes it comparable, in practical terms, to chemical agents designed to kill with minute exposure.The order notes that hundreds of thousands of Americans have died from fentanyl overdoses in recent years, often without knowing they were taking the drug at all. Fentanyl is frequently mixed into counterfeit prescription pills or blended with heroin, cocaine or methamphetamine, leaving users unaware they are ingesting a substance far more powerful than expected.US officials argue this combination of concealment, potency and ease of mass distribution elevates fentanyl beyond conventional narcotics. The administration also claims that, in theory, the drug could be used deliberately in concentrated form to carry out terror-style attacks, although experts remain sceptical about that specific risk.

National security, cartels and enforcement powers

The executive order ties fentanyl directly to organised crime and terrorism, saying its production and sale fund assassinations, insurgencies and violent campaigns by cartels and foreign terrorist organisations. It singles out two major cartels as being primarily responsible for fentanyl distribution inside the US, accusing them of waging armed conflict over territory and trafficking routes.Under the order, the attorney general is directed to pursue enhanced criminal prosecutions and tougher sentencing for fentanyl trafficking. The treasury and state departments are instructed to target financial networks linked to fentanyl production, while the Pentagon is asked to assess whether military resources should support domestic law enforcement.The armed forces will also be required to update homeland chemical-incident response plans to explicitly include fentanyl, and the Department of Homeland Security will draw on counter-proliferation intelligence normally reserved for WMD threats to track fentanyl smuggling networks.Trump announced the move while intensifying a wider campaign against what his administration calls “narco-terrorists” in Latin America, including military strikes on suspected drug-smuggling vessels. He has repeatedly argued that fentanyl kills more Americans than bombs or conventional weapons.

Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s losses, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of key US employment and inflation figures. Concerns over a potential tech bubble added to the cautious mood.Hong Kong’s HSI was trading at 25,139, down 489 or 1.91%. Nikkei also trimmed 673 points or 1.34% to 49,494. Shanghai and Shenzhen were down 1.22% or 1.88%, respectively. South Korean Kospi also dipped 73 points to trade at 4,016 at 10:05 AM IST.Markets, after a strong, tech-led rally this year, have slowed, as traders opt for a wait-and-see approach, amid heavy investments in artificial intelligence and signs that the Federal Reserve may halt further rate cuts. The spotlight is on the US November jobs report, along with delayed October data, due later today. Analysts say the figures, followed by Thursday’s consumer price index, will provide insight into the Fed’s plans for interest rates in early 2026. Fed officials remain divided on the decision. Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by Donald Trump, said rates are still too high while New York Fed President John Williams described them as “about the right place.” Boston Fed President Susan Collins called the decision a “close call,” according to AFP. The downbeat mood further extended to cryptocurrencies, with bitcoin dropping to $85,171. Gold, continued its safe haven charm, rising above $4,300, nearing record highs. The Japanese yen gained against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike on Friday.

Rupee extended its downward rally on Tuesday, slipping to a record low of 90.83 against the US dollar. The currency began trading on a weak note, opening 0.1% lower at 90.79 against Monday’s close of 90.73, as continued foreign fund outflows and trade-related uncertainty weighed on the domestic currency.The muted opening follows a sharp sell-off in the previous session, when the rupee slid to an all-time intra-day low of 90.80 before ending trade at a record closing level of 90.78 against the greenback. The domestic unit had registered a loss of 29 paise on Monday, extending its recent losing streak.According to forex traders, persistent risk aversion in the market, strong demand for dollars from importers, kept the currency weak. Concerns also rose over the timing and outcome of an India-US trade deal.VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, Geojit Investments Limited told TOI that the currency “is likely to stabilise since November trade deficit has come down to $ 24.53 billion from $ 41.64 billion in October. This will take away some pressure on the FIIs to sell anticipating further depreciation.”Earlier on Monday, rupee opened at 90.53 at the interbank foreign exchange market. The latest slide came after the rupee had already fallen 17 paise, last week on Friday to close at 90.49, which was then its lowest-ever level against the US dollar.“The Indian rupee plunged to a record low, positioning it as the worst performer among the Asian currencies. Despite the better-than-expected trade balance number, the rupee was unable to find support,” Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities told PTI.Looking ahead, Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, MiraeAsset ShareKhan, said that the currency is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.“The rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias amid delay in Indo-US trade deal and FII outflows,” he said. “A weak dollar and any intervention by the RBI may also support the rupee at lower levels. Investors may watch for central bank monetary policy decisions from BOE, ECB and BoJ. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 90.30 to Rs 91.”

Ford has redrawn its electric vehicle roadmap, announcing that it will pull back from large EVs as the US carmaker transitions towards hybrids, petrol-powered trucks and a new battery storage venture. The auto giant also predicted profits to take a hit of almost $19.5 billion in the next few years.The US automaker, on Monday, said that several large electric models will be dropped, including the F-150 Lightning, as demand has failed to meet expectations amid rising costs and changes in regulation. The decision marks a clear departure from Ford’s earlier EV-heavy ambitions, at a time when the industry is reassessing the pace of the electric transition.“This is a customer-driven shift to create a stronger, more resilient and more profitable Ford,” chief executive Jim Farley said, adding that “the operating reality has changed, and we are redeploying capital into higher-return growth opportunities.”The announcement follows a move by US President Donald Trump to roll back stricter fuel economy rules introduced under former president Joe Biden, which had encouraged US carmakers to accelerate investments in electric vehicles. Farley welcomed the rollback, saying Trump was “aligning fuel economy standards with market realities” and calling it “a win for customers and common sense.” Trump has frequently criticised what he called an EV “mandate”, while Republican lawmakers have also scrapped clean-energy tax credits that had supported EV sales.Going forward, Ford said its electric vehicle development will be limited to smaller, lower-priced models. Production of the current F-150 Lightning has already been stopped, the company said. Its successor will be launched as a hybrid model, pairing an electric battery with a petrol engine and offering a driving range of more than 700 miles.Plans to introduce new electric commercial vans in Europe and North America have also been abandoned. Instead, Ford will produce petrol and hybrid vans at its Ohio assembly plant from 2029. In Tennessee, the company will retool its EV-focused factory, now to be renamed the Tennessee Truck Plant, to build affordable petrol-powered trucks from the same year.As part of its broader reset, Ford is also entering the battery energy storage market. A plant in Kentucky will be converted to manufacture storage systems for data centres and power utilities. The company expects to invest around $2 billion over two years in the project and aims to reach an annual capacity of 20 gigawatt-hours by late 2027, positioning itself as a significant player in the fast-growing sector.

US President Donald Trump (Photo credit: AP)

US President Donald Trump on Monday filed a defamation lawsuit against the BBC, accusing Britain’s public service broadcaster of misleadingly editing a speech he delivered to supporters in Washington on January 6, 2021, shortly before the US Capitol was stormed. The January 2021 attack on the US Capitol sought to block Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. Trump has repeatedly denied responsibility for the violence.According to Reuters, the lawsuit was filed in federal court in Miami. Trump has alleged that edited clips aired by the BBC falsely suggested he urged supporters to storm the Capitol, causing him serious reputational and financial damage.Trump claims the broadcaster stitched together excerpts from different parts of his speech including remarks urging supporters to march to the Capitol and another in which he said “fight like hell” — while excluding a passage calling for peaceful protest. He argues that the edit created a misleading impression of a direct call for violence.

BBC’s response so far

The BBC did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit, according to The Guardian. However, the broadcaster has previously apologised, conceding an “error of judgment”, and acknowledged that the edit gave a mistaken impression. It has maintained that there is no legal basis for a defamation claim.In a statement issued earlier, a BBC spokesperson said lawyers had replied to Trump’s legal notice, adding: “While the BBC sincerely regrets the manner in which the video clip was edited, we strongly disagree there is a basis for a defamation claim.”

What the edited clip showed?

The disputed clip featured in an episode of Panorama broadcast shortly before the 2024 US presidential election. The controversy triggered one of the biggest crises in the BBC’s 103-year history and led to the resignations of director general Tim Davie and BBC News chief Deborah Turness last month, The Guardian reported. The broadcaster has said it does not intend to rebroadcast the documentary on any of its platforms.According to The Guardian, the edit drawn from sections of Trump’s speech delivered almost an hour apart gave the impression that he told the crowd: “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol and I’ll be there with you, and we fight. We fight like hell.”A spokesperson for Trump’s legal team said the edited footage, aired in the run-up to the 2024 election, amounted to a “brazen attempt” to interfere in the contest. “The BBC has a long pattern of deceiving its audience in coverage of President Trump, all in service of its own leftist political agenda,” the spokesperson said. “President Trump’s powerhouse lawsuit is holding the BBC accountable for its defamation and reckless election interference.”The row intensified after the leak of a BBC memo by an external editorial standards adviser, which raised concerns over how the programme had been edited as part of a wider review into alleged political bias at the publicly funded broadcaster. The documentary was not aired in the United States.Trump’s lawyers argue that the BBC acted “intentionally, maliciously, and deceptively”. In the filing, Trump is seeking damages of at least $5 billion.Speaking earlier to reporters, Trump said: “We’ll sue them for anywhere between $1bn and $5bn probably sometime next week. I think I have to do it. They cheated. They changed the words coming out of my mouth,” as quoted by the BBC. In a separate interview, he said: “I think I have an obligation to do it. If you don’t do it, you don’t stop it from happening again with other people.”Legal experts cited by Reuters say Trump faces a high legal threshold under US law. As a public figure, he must prove not only that the edit was false and defamatory, but also that the BBC knowingly misled viewers or acted with reckless disregard for the truth, given strong constitutional protections for free speech and the press.The BBC is expected to argue that the programme was substantially accurate, that its editing did not materially distort the meaning of the speech, or that Trump’s reputation was not harmed. In the UK, defamation claims must be filed within a year of publication, a deadline that has passed for the Panorama episode which may explain why Trump has chosen to sue in the US.Trump’s lawsuit argues that the Florida court has jurisdiction because the BBC conducts “substantial” business in the state, including through its website and the BritBox streaming service, which operates in the US.The case adds to a series of legal actions Trump has brought against media organisations. While CBS and ABC have settled lawsuits with him following his 2024 election victory, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and an Iowa newspaper have denied wrongdoing in cases filed against them.

NEW DELHI: With severe levels of pollution routinely choking Delhi-NCR during winters, Supreme Court on Monday said a major reason for the ineffectiveness of a slew of orders and protocols to fight noxious air is the reluctance of the rich and affluent to change their lifestyles. The remark was made by a bench of CJI Surya Kant and Justices Joymalya Bagchi and Vipul M Pancholi after amicus curiae and senior advocate Aparajita Singh complained to the court that air pollution continues to hover around severe levels, causing serious health issues to residents of Delhi-NCR, despite several SC orders putting in place anti-pollution protocols. Singh said, “Implementation of these orders and taking action as per the protocols has always remained tardy.” The CJI-led bench said, “The Supreme Court has passed a number of orders, yet the situation remains unchanged. What is the solution? We must pass practical orders which can be implemented. Otherwise, people will continue to flout it.” The CJI said, “People need to understand the need of the hour and change their lifestyles. The affluent class does not comply with the restrictions and continues to use big diesel-guzzling cars, generators and other polluting gadgets. The pollution caused by vehicles is choking the national capital and surrounding areas. It is the poor and working class who are most exposed to pollution and suffer the most.” In an affidavit last week, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) had informed the court that transport sector accounts of 41% of the pollution load on Delhi-NCR’s ambient air, while dust and construction activities accounted for 21%, industry 19%, power plants 5%, residential activities 3% and other sources 11%. It said that while these factors are constant sources of pollution, stubble burning is only a periodic cause restricted to a short span in a year. As the CJI-led bench agreed to hear the air pollution issue on Wednesday, the amicus complained that though SC had barred schools and organisations from conducting sporting events for children, who suffer the most from hazardous air quality, the organisers continue to sidestep the restrictions and conduct such events, putting the well-being of students/children at risk.Another counsel raised the issue of health of schoolgoing kids during severe pollution, through a separate application. The bench said that judicial time cannot be spent hearing arguments from different counsels on the same issue and asked all advocates to give their suggestions to the amicus curiae, who alone would be making submissions on different issues before the court.

New Delhi: The unemployment rate for those in the 15 years and above age group dipped to an eight-month low of 4.7% in Nov from 5.2% in the previous month while the overall Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for the same age bracket rose to a seven-month high of 55.8% during the month.The monthly bulletin of Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for Nov, released Monday, showed rural joblessness fell to a new low of 3.9%, while the urban rate dipped to 6.5%, matching its previous lowest level recorded in April. The monthly PLFS bulletin started in April.The data showed a decline in joblessness rate across gender and segments. Unemployment rates for both males and females aged 15 years and above displayed a decline in Nov. Among females, it fell to 4.8% in Nov, down from 5.4% in Oct. The dip was led by reduction in both rural and urban unemployment rate among females, which decreased from 4% to 3.4% and 9.7% to 9.3%, respectively.The overall male unemployment rate slowed to 4.6% in Nov, compared with 5.1% in Oct. Disaggregated by sector, rural and urban male joblessness rate stood at 4.1% and 5.6% in Nov, compared with 4.6% and 6.1% recorded in the previous month, according to data released by the statistics office.“Unemployment rates showed a steady and broad-based decline across male, females, and all persons during April-Nov 2025. The fall was more pronounced in rural areas, where both male and female unemployment reached their lowest levels in Nov,” the statistics office said in a statement.“Urban unemployment remained higher but showed improvement towards the end of the period. Overall, the trends suggest strengthening labour market conditions, supported by gains in rural employment, rising female participation, and a gradual recovery in urban labour demand,” it added.The data showed overall LFPR among those in the 15 years and above age group increased to 55.8% in Nov, the highest level recorded since April. The increase was largely driven by rural areas, where it rose to 58.6% in Nov from 58.0% in April. Compared with the previous month, rural LFPR increased from 57.8%, while urban LFPR decreased marginally from 50.5% to 50.4%, according to survey results.