US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday said the central bank can look through the energy price shock triggered by the Middle East conflict, but warned it may need to act if rising costs begin to alter inflation expectations, AFP reported.“The tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” Powell said at an event at Harvard University, noting that energy shocks have historically been short-lived.This is because “energy shocks have tended to come and go pretty quickly” while changes in monetary policy take longer to transmit through the economy, he said.The remarks come amid escalating tensions following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which led to retaliation from Tehran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global energy supplies.With nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passing through the strait in normal conditions, the conflict has pushed up global oil prices and driven a surge in US gasoline costs, raising concerns over inflation.For now, Powell said, “we feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”He added that “inflation expectations do appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term,” but acknowledged that supply shocks could risk shifting expectations if price pressures persist.The Fed is currently navigating what Powell described as a “tension” between its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and supporting employment, with risks of both higher inflation and a weakening labour market.On financial stability, Powell said the US system has “significantly hardened” since the 2008 global financial crisis, though regulators must continue to ensure resilience without attempting to “regulate risk out of existence.”He added that policymakers are closely watching emerging areas such as private credit.With his term set to expire in May, Powell also underscored the importance of the Fed’s independence, saying the central bank “needs to be fully politically independent” and that its chair should be “a person who can be reappointed by either side.”

The Indian rupee depreciated 9.88 per cent against the US dollar in FY26, marking its steepest annual decline in 14 years, according to market data as reported PTI.The last comparable fall was in FY12, when the domestic currency had dropped 12.4 per cent amid a widening current account deficit of 4.2 per cent.The sharp depreciation in FY26 was driven by persistent foreign fund outflows, elevated crude oil prices and a strengthening US dollar. Volatility in global financial markets and tightening liquidity conditions further added to the pressure on the currency.Other Asian currencies also weakened against the dollar during the period, with the Japanese yen declining 6 per cent, the Philippine peso falling 5.74 per cent, and the South Korean won slipping 2.88 per cent since April 1, according to market participants.Sunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India, described FY26 as a “perfect storm” of external shocks, capital outflows and structural vulnerabilities, noting that the drivers of the current depreciation differ from those seen in FY12.“Unlike FY12 (which was more domestic plus taper tantrum-led), FY26 depreciation is externally driven by oil, geopolitics, capital flight, and amplified by India’s import dependence,” PTI quoted Sodhani as saying.The initial weakness in the rupee was triggered after the US imposed tariffs on India, which led to a surge in demand for the dollar. The situation worsened with the escalation of the West Asia conflict, pushing crude oil prices higher and intensifying pressure on the domestic currency.The tariffs also weighed on equity and debt markets, resulting in sustained foreign capital outflows. The rupee has since touched successive record lows, breaching the psychological mark of 95 against the US dollar, despite interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).To support the currency, the RBI has sold $55.073 billion in the spot market till January in FY26.The central bank has also introduced regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation. On Friday, the RBI said banks can hold only up to $100 million in net open positions in the onshore currency market at the end of each trading day, effective April 10.The move briefly supported the rupee in early trade on Monday, though gains were later erased due to strong dollar demand from oil companies and corporates, traders said.The currency witnessed high volatility during the session, swinging 165 paise intra-day as the West Asia crisis entered its 31st day. It eventually closed 7 paise higher at 94.78 against the dollar after touching an intra-day low beyond 95.“Rupee rose, but again fell due to some big corporate buying, squaring up of position in NDF, Nationalised banks buying and oil companies buying,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.Market participants expect the rupee to remain volatile going ahead.“Outlook depends on three variables: oil, flows, and global rates. The new normal is higher volatility plus gradual depreciation, not stability around a fixed band. In FY27, for the USD/INR pair, 92-97 remains the broader range play,” Sodhani added.

Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) on Monday fined Naseem Shah 20 million Pakistani rupees for posting tweets that were found to be in violation of his central contract.According to ESPNcricinfo, this was the ‘the largest fine in Pakistan cricket history’.The board said its disciplinary committee held Shah guilty of breaching contract clauses and acting irresponsibly on social media. He was issued a show-cause notice on March 27, shortly after Pakistan Punjab’s chief minister Maryam Nawaz attended the opening match of the Pakistan Super League (PSL) at Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium.Maryam Nawaz had been invited as chief guest and was introduced to officials of the eight franchises and players before the match between Lahore Qalandars and Hyderabad Kingsmen.Shah later posted on X, “Why is she treated like the queen at Lord’s?” in reference to her presence at the venue. He deleted the post soon after and claimed that his account had been hacked.Following the notice from the PCB, Shah issued an unconditional apology and appeared before a three-member disciplinary committee in Lahore on Monday.The PCB said that Shah was found “to have breached various clauses of his central contract.”“It was noted that Naseem Shah’s social media adviser has already been terminated by Naseem and shall be blacklisted by the PCB from associating with any player falling under the PCB’s jurisdiction,” the board said.The development comes during a PSL season affected by wider regional issues. As part of the fallout from the conflict in Iran, spectators have not been allowed at matches, and the tournament has been reduced from six venues to two — Lahore and Karachi. Rising fuel prices have led the government to advise limited travel and work-from-home measures.Last year, Pakistan all-rounder Aamer Jamal was fined $4,000 for displaying a slogan in support of former prime minister Imran Khan.Shah is currently playing for Rawalpindi Pindiz and had figures of 0 for 51 in a five-wicket loss to Peshawar Zalmi.The right-arm fast bowler has taken 152 wickets for Pakistan across formats, including 20 Tests, 34 ODIs and 37 T20 internationals.

The ongoing Iran war, now nearing four weeks with no clear resolution, is already pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel, with visible impact on fuel and household costs. Against this backdrop, Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, has outlined two sharply divergent paths for oil markets and the global economy.Speaking to the BBC, Fink said the conflict could either ease, leading to a sharp fall in oil prices, or persist, keeping crude elevated for years. “I could paint a scenario where I could see, a year from now, oil at $40 a barrel… I could see it above $150. We have two very extreme outcomes,” he said.The impact is already being felt in the US, where the national average price of gasoline has climbed to nearly $4 per gallon, up more than $1 in March alone and 27% higher year-on-year, according to AAA.Best-case scenario: Oil collapse if conflict easesIn the more optimistic scenario, the war would end, Iran would reintegrate into global markets, and the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil transit route — would reopen. This could release significant oil supply into global markets.Using estimates from the US Energy Information Administration, where every $1 change in oil prices translates to about 2.4 cents per gallon in fuel prices, a fall to $40 per barrel could push gasoline prices down to around $2.40 per gallon — levels last seen during the post-pandemic phase.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, has already caused what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Reopening it remains central to easing global price pressures.Fink suggested that if Iran becomes part of the global economic system again, combined with increased supply from countries like Venezuela, oil prices could fall even below pre-war levels.

Worst-case scenario: Prolonged high oil, inflation shock

In contrast, if the conflict continues and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, oil prices could stay above $100 and even move toward $150 per barrel.Fink warned that such a scenario would have wide-ranging consequences. “I would argue that we could have years… above $100, closer to $150 oil which has profound implications in the economy,” he said.At those levels, US gasoline prices could exceed $5 per gallon, significantly raising transportation and logistics costs. Higher diesel and energy prices would also feed into food inflation, given their role in supply chains and fertiliser production.He added that the divergence between the two scenarios is stark: “The $40 oil implication is one of abundance and growth and the other one is an outcome of probably a stark and steep recession”.

Market implications and investor outlook

The uncertainty around oil prices is also influencing financial markets. Rising yields and inflation expectations have already shifted expectations around interest rate cuts.In his annual letter to investors, Fink noted that market volatility often coincides with strong long-term returns. “Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right… Miss just the ten best days, and you would have earned less than half,” he wrote.As the conflict continues, the trajectory of oil prices– and by extension inflation, growth and financial markets – will hinge on whether geopolitical tensions ease or deepen further.(With inputs from agencies)

Air Canada on Monday said CEO Michael Rousseau will retire by the end of the third quarter, with the announcement coming against the backdrop of criticism over his handling of communications after a fatal accident, Reuters reported.The controversy stemmed from a condolence message issued following a collision involving an Air Canada Express aircraft and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, which killed both pilots and left dozens injured. The message, delivered largely in English, drew sharp reactions in bilingual Canada.Prime Minister Mark Carney said last week the episode reflected poor judgment by the airline’s top executive.The development has fast-tracked an already planned leadership transition, with the carrier confirming that the process to identify a successor is underway.Rousseau, 68, has been with Air Canada for nearly two decades and oversaw its recovery from the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, his tenure also saw criticism over operational issues, including a four-day strike by flight attendants last year that disrupted hundreds of flights.The latest backlash also revived earlier concerns around language use. In 2021, Rousseau had apologised after delivering a speech primarily in English in Montreal, despite the city being in French-speaking Quebec.Language remains a politically sensitive issue in Quebec, where concerns over English dominance have historically influenced regional politics, including support for the separatist Parti Quebecois.Air Canada, though a listed company, operates under the Official Languages Act, which mandates that it provide services in both English and French.The Quebec provincial legislature last week passed a non-binding motion urging Rousseau to step down, citing what lawmakers described as a lack of respect for the French language. Elections in the province are due later this year.The episode also comes at a time when airline chiefs globally are expected to directly address the public following fatal incidents. In January 2025, American Airlines CEO Robert Isom issued a video statement expressing “deep sorrow” after a midair collision involving one of its regional jets and a US Army Black Hawk helicopter near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport killed 67 people.

The Indian rupee has been battered since the start of the US-Iran war, and continues to depreciate versus the US dollar driven by a multitude of factors. (AI image)

The Indian rupee on Monday breached the 95 mark for the first time versus the US dollar. In fact, in this financial year, the rupee has depreciated by a record 9.88 per cent, the steepest fall seen in 14 years. The currency closed at 94.78 against the dollar. Incidentally, today’s intraday low of 95 came after a smart recovery in morning trade, when the rupee appreciated 128 paise versus the dollar. The recovery came despite global crude oil prices rising. Usually, higher global crude oil prices increase import bill, which in turn raises demand for US dollars, hence putting downward pressure on the rupee. At the same time, higher oil prices fuel inflation, which in turn widens the current account deficit, further weakening the currency.The Indian rupee has been battered since the start of the US-Iran war, and continues to depreciate versus the US dollar driven by a multitude of factors. Market participants noted that the domestic currency opened on a stronger footing as banks, which typically hold long positions, are now expected to pare these exposures in line with the central bank’s directive.

RBI Moves To Protect Rupee

The Reserve Bank of India moved to limit the overnight net open position that banks can maintain to $100 million.Under a circular issued on March 27, 2026, the Reserve Bank capped the Net Open Position (NOP-INR) for banks at $100 million, with compliance mandated by April 10.“As banks begin adjusting their positions, they are likely to sell dollars in the market, which can temporarily support the rupee. This creates a phase of relief, driven by position unwinding, not by a major shift in fundamentals, but still meaningful in the near term,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to stabilise the rupee by directing banks to reduce their foreign exchange exposures beyond $100 million was expected to check the currency’s slide towards the 95 level.

The measure is also likely to result in losses for banks holding large open positions. Over the weekend, lenders approached the central bank seeking either relaxation of the rule or an extension of the timeline. However, with the RBI maintaining its stance, banks are now required to begin trimming their positions from Monday in order to comply with the April 10 deadline.Previously, banks were allowed to maintain net open positions of up to 25% of their net worth. In reality, several large institutions had built substantial long dollar exposures, in some cases exceeding $1 billion, anticipating further depreciation of the rupee. The revised cap now necessitates a swift reduction in these positions. By April 10, 2026, banks must scale down their exposures to $100 million, effectively forcing them to offload dollars and purchase rupees to rebalance their books.Uday Kotak described the step as “an unconventional policy action” prompted by a West Asia crisis that has moved into “uncharted territory”. “Reminds me of Bimal Jalan play book as RBI Governor in 1998 when the rupee was depreciating sharply post Asian crisis. If things get worse geo politically, is there an opportunity for a new version of FCNR (B) scheme?” he said.Some bankers, however, remain doubtful about the effectiveness of special measures aimed at attracting dollar inflows.

Why rupee declined despite RBI move

The central bank’s action initially triggered a sharp appreciation in the rupee during early trade on Monday. However, much of these gains were later erased as strong demand for the US dollar from oil companies weighed on the currency, according to market participants.Forex traders noted significant volatility in the USD/INR pair, which fluctuated within a wide range of 165 paise during intra-day trading, as the West Asia conflict entered its 31st day and continued to unsettle energy markets.“Rupee rose, but again fell due to some big corporate buying, squaring up of position in NDF, Nationalised banks buying and oil companies buying,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.Analysts indicated that the rupee is likely to move within a broad range of 92 to 97 against the US dollar in the near term.“Outlook depends on three variables: oil, flows, and global rates. The new normal is higher volatility plus gradual depreciation, not stability around a fixed band. In FY27, for the USD/INR pair, 92-97 remains the broader range play,” said Sunal Sodhani, head of treasury in India at South Korean lender Shinhan Bank.According to forex market participants, the domestic unit remains under pressure due to persistent outflows by foreign investors and the strengthening of the US dollar, driven by ongoing uncertainty linked to the West Asia conflict. Traders noted that sustained demand for the dollar, coupled with inflation risks stemming from elevated energy prices, continues to weigh heavily on the rupee. They added that the overall trend is likely to stay weak unless there is a meaningful correction in crude oil prices.Earlier initiatives to mobilise foreign currency relied on offering assured returns to non-resident Indians, who would borrow at lower rates overseas and invest in India. Such approaches may have limited appeal now, given the broader availability of structured investment options. Bankers noted that raising dollars through rupee-dollar swap mechanisms may prove more cost-effective for the RBI.

Wall Street’s main indices edged higher in choppy trade on Monday, recovering from the previous session’s sharp losses, even as the Middle East conflict widened and kept investors cautious.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.32 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.19 per cent in early trade, according to Reuters.The rebound came after US President Donald Trump said Washington was in serious discussions with a “more reasonable regime” to end the war, while reiterating warnings that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US strikes on its oil and power infrastructure.Tensions escalated further after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia entered the conflict over the weekend.Energy stocks led gains, with the S&P 500 Energy Index rising 1.5 per cent. Shares of Exxon Mobil climbed 3 per cent, while Chevron added 1.5 per cent.“The S&P 500 is still down less than 10% (since the war began). In many ways, investors have been affected less by the implications of the Strait of Hormuz being closed than I would have thought,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, quoted Reuters.“Today’s action is probably more of a technical bounce because many sectors and sub-industries are in oversold condition,” he added.Financial stocks also moved higher, with the sector gaining 0.8 per cent after the US Department of Labor issued guidelines clarifying how trustees can include alternative assets such as private equity and cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans.Asset managers advanced, with Blackstone up 1.7 per cent, KKR gaining 1.4 per cent, and Apollo Global Management rising 1 per cent.Overall, nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors traded in positive territory.Despite the uptick, major US indices including the Dow, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 remain in correction territory since the conflict began.Morgan Stanley downgraded global equities to “equal weight” from “overweight”, but noted that capital flows into US equities and bonds have strengthened, suggesting the US may regain its safe-haven appeal.Investors are now awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams later in the day, alongside key labour market data this week, including March nonfarm payrolls.Rising oil prices linked to the conflict have reignited inflation concerns, with market participants now pricing out any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, compared to expectations of two cuts before the war, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.Among individual stocks, Sysco plunged 12 per cent after announcing a $29 billion acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot, including debt.Metal stocks rallied as aluminium prices hovered near four-year highs, with Alcoa and Century Aluminum surging 12 per cent and 13.6 per cent, respectively.US markets will remain closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.Advancing stocks outpaced decliners by a ratio of 2.69-to-1 on the NYSE and 1.49-to-1 on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 recorded 19 new 52-week highs and four lows, while the Nasdaq saw 17 new highs and 121 new lows.

Small Savings Schemes Interest rates (AI image)

Latest Small Savings Interest Rates: The Finance Ministry announces the interest rates for post office and small savings schemes every quarter after a review. The interest rates for Public Provident Fund (PPF), Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY), Senior Citizens Savings Scheme (SCSS), National Savings Certificates (NSC) etc are decided on a quarterly basis.The Finance Ministry has released the latest interest rates for the first quarter of the new financial year FY 2026-27 from April to June. The interest rates for all small savings schemes have been kept unchanged.

Latest Small Savings Interest Rates (Q1 FY 2026-27)

The existing rates will continue to apply for the April–June 2026 quarter. In an official notification, the ministry said that the interest rates for various small savings schemes for the first quarter of FY 2026–27, beginning April 1, 2026 and ending June 30, 2026, will remain the same as those announced for the preceding quarter of FY 2025–26.According to the notification, the Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme will continue to offer an interest rate of 8.2%, while the rate on three-year term deposits remains unchanged at 7.1%.

Experts say that interest rates on small savings schemes are often influenced by several key factors. Among these, yields on government securities are the most critical, as higher bond yields generally lead to higher returns on these schemes. Inflation also plays a role, as the government aims to maintain attractive real returns for investors. Additionally, monetary policy actions by RBI, particularly changes in the repo rate and liquidity conditions, impact G-Sec yields and, in turn, small savings rates.However, despite the market-linked framework, experts are of the view the government does not strictly adhere to the formula every quarter. Protecting small savers, particularly senior citizens and retirees who rely on these schemes for stable income, is a key factor behind maintaining steady rates.Interest rates on these schemes have remained unchanged for an extended period. The last revision was made for the January–March quarter of FY 2023–24.