As the curtain begins to fall in 2025, India’s economic story resists easy labels. Was it the year the country was squeezed by global trade wars and tariffs? Or was it a rare “Goldilocks” moment, marked by strong growth, low inflation and ample policy room to support the economy?The answer lies somewhere in between.The year-end economic review of India reads as a story of resilience, reform and recalibration. From record stock market highs to a weakening rupee, from expanding trade ties to sudden tariff shocks, the year revealed how India’s economic fortunes are increasingly shaped by forces far beyond its borders.India ended 2025 as one of the world’s fastest-growing economy — but not without scars!

8.2% GDP growth: A standout year for expansion

India’s economic ascent continued to capture global attention in 2025. Already the world’s fourth-largest economy, the country is firmly on track to become the third-largest by 2030, with GDP projected at $6628.0 billion, according to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook report.The headline moment came with the release of second-quarter GDP data for FY 2025-26. Real Gross Domestic Product expanded by a stunning 8.2% during the July–September period — a sharp acceleration from the 5.6% growth recorded in the same quarter last year.The print exceeded market estimates and even surpassed the Reserve Bank of India’s projections, marking a six-quarter high.Combined with a strong 7.8% expansion in the April–June quarter, the economy grew by around 8% in the first half of the financial year, reinforcing India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy globally. Economists expect growth to remain resilient in the December quarter, supported by stronger consumption following GST rationalisation. “Now we can comfortably say full year growth will be 7% or north of 7%,” Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said after the data release.The National Statistics Office data cemented India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economy in the world, even as global growth slowed and tariffs on Indian exports to the US intensified.In its official statement, the government highlighted “Real GDP, adjusted for inflation, rose 8.2% in Q2 FY26, compared with 5.6% in Q2 FY25. Growth in Q1 FY26 stood at 7.8%, up from 6.5% a year earlier. Nominal GDP expanded by 8.7% in Q2, with all major sectors contributing to the expansion. The primary sector grew 3.1% year-on-year, while the secondary and tertiary sectors posted strong growth of 8.1% and 9.2%, respectively.“Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the numbers as validation of policy continuity and reform-led growth. “The 8.2% GDP growth in Q2 of 2025-26 is very encouraging. It reflects the impact of our pro-growth policies and reforms. It also reflects the hard work and enterprise of our people. Our govt will continue to advance reforms and strengthen the Ease of Living for every citizen,” he posted on X.

A rare ‘Goldilocks’ phase

If growth was the headline, inflation was the surprise.The Reserve Bank of India has described the current macroeconomic environment as a “rare goldilocks” phase, marked by strong growth alongside low inflation.India achieved a historic milestone in October 2025 when retail inflation fell to just 0.25%, the lowest year-on-year print in the current CPI series, according to government data. The print marked a sharp 119-basis-point fall from September, reflecting a dramatic easing in price pressures.Inflation edged up modestly to 0.71% in November, a 46-basis-point increase from October, but remained comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, underscoring a prolonged period of price stability.The cooling was driven largely by deflation in food prices. CPI inflation stayed benign through 2025-26, prompting the RBI to project average inflation at around 2% for the fiscal year, the lower bound of its tolerance range.The combination of inflation and a growth-oriented monetary stance has created space for further policy support, with expectations building around a complementary demand boost in the Union Budget 2026-27.

RBI cut repo rate

With inflation firmly under control, the central bank moved decisively to support growth. The RBI cut the repo rate during FY 2025-26, lowering it from 6.25% to 5.25%.The Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points during the calendar year 2025, bringing it down to 5.25%, while revising its inflation forecast to around 2% and nudging up full-year growth projections to about 7.3%.Including earlier actions, the RBI has now lowered rates by a total of 125 basis points since February 2025, marking its most aggressive easing cycle since 2019.

GST 2.0 kicks in: Simpler taxes, lower costs

One of the most consequential reforms of the year came in September with the launch of GST 2.0. The overhaul simplified India’s indirect tax architecture streamlined into two slabs — 5% and 18%, replacing the earlier four-rate system of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%. Most essentials, household items and daily-use goods now attract 5% GST or are exempt.Luxury and sin goods, including pan masala, tobacco, aerated drinks, high-end cars, yachts and private aircraft will be taxed at 40%, ensuring progressivity while safeguarding revenues.Life insurance premiums were made GST-free. Household goods, packaged foods, medicines, consumer durables, automobiles and farm equipment all became cheaper.GST on farm machinery, irrigation equipment and bio-pesticides has been slashed to 5%, reducing input costs and encouraging productivity and sustainable farming practices.The reform eased compliance, reduced costs, boosted festive demand and reinforced domestic manufacturing, delivering relief at both the consumer and enterprise level.

Budget 2025: Big relief for middle class

The Union Budget added another boost, delivering sweeping income tax relief under the new tax regime. The headline announcement was zero income tax on annual income up to Rs 12 lakh. For salaried individuals, the nil-tax threshold effectively rises to Rs 12.75 lakh, after accounting for the standard deduction of Rs 75,000, offering additional relief to middle-income earners.Slab rates were reworked to ease the burden on middle-income earners, significantly improving disposable incomes. Together, tax cuts, GST rationalisation, record-low inflation, robust GDP growth and accommodative monetary policy have created a supportive economic environment.These factors are expected to lift consumer spending, improve corporate profitability and sustain investment momentum. While currency volatility remains a risk to watch, the broader macro trend points to positive market sentiment and scope for sustained economic expansion.As the RBI summed up, “Economic activity during the first half of the financial year benefited from income tax and goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation, softer crude oil prices, front-loading of government capital expenditure, and facilitative monetary and financial conditions supported by benign inflation.”

Stock market showed strong peaks and weak finish

India’s equity markets delivered a mixed performance in 2025, touching record highs and lows during the year, later ending on a softer note as foreign selling intensified amid global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics.Strong consumer demand, steady government spending and ongoing structural reforms helped markets remain resilient for much of the year.Early 2025: Markets began cautiously, weighed down by global growth concerns, elevated interest rates in advanced economies and trade tensions. Still, benchmarks opened the year on a positive footing. On January 2, the BSE Sensex stood at 78,507.41 while the Nifty 50 was at 23,742.90, supported by buying in frontline stocks.Mid-year: A recovery was following however, global volatility spiked in April after US President Donald Trump, in his second term, announced sweeping new tariffs on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” triggering a sell-off across global markets.Late 2025: Volatility remained in the final months due to foreign portfolio outflows, rupee pressure and uncertainty around global monetary policy and geopolitics. Nifty 50 touched an all-time high of 26,326 on December 1, ending the year with gains of about 10.2%, while BSE Sensex also hit its highest-ever closing level of 86,159.02, reflecting steady gains and improving market breadth through much of the year.However, momentum faded toward the close. In the final sessions, benchmarks declined dragged down by continued foreign investor selling and a lack of strong domestic triggers. The Nifty 50 closed at 26,042.30, down 0.38%, while the Sensex fell 367 points, or 0.43%, to 85,041.45, after touching an intraday low of 84,937.82.Overall, the Indian markets showed a neutral-to-negative note in 2025.

India’s trade push: FTAs take centre stage

Even as protectionism rose, India pressed ahead with trade diplomacy. India stepped up its trade diplomacy in 2025, concluding key free trade agreements and reviving stalled negotiations as it sought to diversify export markets amid rising global protectionism and tariff barriers.India–New Zealand FTA (2025): India concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand on December 22, paving the way for duty-free entry of all Indian exports into the New Zealand market and a planned investment inflow of $20 billion over the next 15 years. PM Modi and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the deal via social media, with both sides aiming to double bilateral trade within five years.According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the pact strengthens India’s access to a high-income, rules-based Pacific market, while offering New Zealand deeper entry into one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies amid global trade uncertainty.India–Oman CEPA (2025): The India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) delivers near-complete duty-free access for Indian exports and opens opportunities across labour-intensive manufacturing, services and skilled workforce mobility.The deal marks a major expansion of India’s economic footprint in the Gulf region. Gulzar Didwania, Partner at Deloitte India, described the Oman CEPA and New Zealand FTA as “watershed moments” for India’s export-led growth strategy.

“The India–Oman CEPA delivers zero-duty access on nearly 98% of tariff lines, covering textiles, engineering goods, medical devices, pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Similarly, the India–New Zealand FTA removes tariffs on 100% of India’s exports, opening the NZ market widely and potentially doubling trade over five years,” he told TOI.India–UK CETA (2025): The India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) offers near-total duty-free access for Indian exports, with significant upside for labour-intensive sectors.India–Israel FTA: India and Israel have been negotiating an FTA since 2010, completing ten rounds covering 280 tariff lines. Talks stalled due to differences over services market access, particularly the temporary movement of Indian IT and skilled professionals. Negotiations gained fresh momentum in November 2025, when both sides signed the Terms of Reference, formally reviving discussions.India has already signed trade agreements with Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, the UAE and Mauritius. It is also part of:

The Downside: Rupee stress, tariffs and rising uncertainty

Despite strong domestic growth, 2025 exposed some of India’s economic vulnerabilities on the global front. The year was marked by rising trade tensions, currency pressure and heavy foreign capital outflows.

Rupee under pressure amid dollar strength

The Indian rupee remained volatile in December, slipping to a record low near Rs 91 per US dollar on December 16, weighed down by strong dollar demand and sustained foreign portfolio outflows. The rupee recovered some ground the following day, strengthening by 55 paise to close at Rs 90.38 on December 17. A further late-week rebound saw the currency rise from nearly Rs 91 to Rs 89.27 on December 19, though pressure soon returned.On December 26, the rupee closed at Rs 89.86 per dollar, dragged down by falling domestic equities, continued foreign fund outflows and higher crude oil prices.Despite intermittent recoveries, the rupee has emerged as one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year, hurt by US tariffs on Indian exports and weak portfolio inflows. The pace of depreciation has been a key concern.After breaching the Rs 90 per dollar level, the rupee slipped past Rs 91 within just 13 days. In less than a year, it has fallen from around Rs 85 to Rs 90, underscoring the speed of the decline.According to State Bank of India’s Ecowrap report, the rupee is expected to stabilise and recover next year, even as near-term volatility persists.

FII outflows hit record levels in 2025

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained persistent sellers of Indian equities throughout 2025, extending a selling trend that began in October 2024. As a result, 2025 has turned into the worst year on record for foreign equity flows into India.FIIs are set to close the year with a record-breaking exodus from Indian stock markets, marking the steepest annual net outflows ever witnessed in India’s capital markets.As of December 27, FIIs had sold equities worth Rs 22,130 crore through stock exchanges. This took cumulative equity selling in calendar year 2025 to Rs 2,31,990 crore. Investments via the primary market stood at Rs 73,583 crore, bringing net FII outflows for the year to Rs 1,58,407 crore, the highest annual net selling by FIIs since they began investing in India.According to Morgan Stanley, FII positioning in Indian equities is now close to cyclical lows. However, the brokerage cautioned that a sustained return of foreign inflows would depend on stronger growth momentum, relatively weaker equity performance in other markets, or higher corporate issuance levels.While domestic fundamentals remain relatively strong, currency volatility and foreign outflows continue to pose near-term challenges for Indian markets.

Yet 2025 was also defined by global headwinds!

Trade deals amid tariff wars

US President Donald Trump has often spoken warmly of his personal relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, repeatedly describing him as a “great friend.” However, Washington’s trade actions toward India in 2025 told a sharply different story.On August 1, the US imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, doubling it to 50% by August 27, alongside an additional “penalty” linked to India’s energy ties with Russia. The move marked one of the most aggressive trade actions taken against India in recent years.Trump accused India of maintaining some of the world’s highest tariffs and what he called “obnoxious” non-monetary trade barriers. He also criticised India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, saying this undermined global efforts to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine.His rhetoric escalated in July, when he said,”I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” New Delhi responded firmly stressing that the country remained firmly on track to become the world’s third-largest economy.

India–US trade talks: Progress slow

The United States remains India’s largest export destination, but trade ties faced strain after the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods.While discussions continue, a final agreement remains elusive. A recent visit by a US delegation to New Delhi failed to deliver a breakthrough, even as Prime Minister Modi and President Donald Trump have described bilateral engagement as positive.The US is pushing for greater exports of energy and agricultural products, while India has drawn a firm red line on opening its farm sector. Officials now believe a deal could be signed by March.The US administration has repeatedly cited its widening trade deficit with India as a key concern, arguing that India maintains relatively high tariffs on American goods and imposes market-access restrictions. “We have a massive trade deficit with India,” Trump said shortly before the initial 25% tariffs came into effect.According to analysts, 2026 could be the first full year in which countries begin grappling with the real-world consequences of a tariff-heavy global trade system, with implications for investment flows, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and currencies.

Immigration becomes a trade flashpoint

Trade negotiations have increasingly become entangled with US immigration policy, particularly around the H-1B visa programme, a critical channel for India’s services exports. The US raised the H-1B visa fee to $100,000, up from a previous range of $2,000–$5,000, sharply increasing hiring costs for employers.From December 15, the US State Department also introduced enhanced screening and vetting, including scrutiny of applicants’ social media profiles, for both H-1B and dependent H-4 visas.This shift could significantly disadvantage entry-level professionals and recent international graduates, many of whom are Indian, raising fresh concerns about India’s largest and fastest-growing services export channel to the US.

Mexico: The 50% shock in the trade outlook

One of the most unexpected jolts to India’s trade outlook in 2025 came not from a global superpower, but from Mexico.In December, Mexico announced a blanket tariff hike of up to 50% on imports from non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries, a move aimed at blocking Chinese trans-shipments from entering the United States duty-free. The decision had immediate and significant implications for Indian exporters.Under the measure, import duties ranging from 5% to 50% will apply to around 1,463 product categories from countries that do not have an FTA with Mexico, including India. The revised tariffs will come into effect from January 1, 2026, though the detailed product list has yet to be officially published.According to estimates by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the impact on Indian trade could be severe. “Nearly 75% of India’s $5.75 billion exports to Mexico will be affected as tariffs jump from 0-15% to around 35%,” the think-tank said.For Indian exporters, particularly in sectors such as automobiles, textiles, engineering goods and consumer products, the decision threatens to undo years of market-building efforts in Latin America.India and Mexico are currently preparing to begin discussions on a bilateral free trade agreement, with formal negotiation parameters expected to be finalised shortly. Analysts believe such an agreement could help insulate Indian exporters from the tariff shock.

Russia: A relationship grows, but unevenly

India and Russia share a long-standing relationship, with economic ties dating back to the Soviet era. In the decades since, bilateral trade and investment have steadily expanded, with cooperation spanning energy, defence, pharmaceuticals and information technology.In the post-Soviet era, India–Russia trade rose from $1.4 billion in 1995 to a record $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25. Indian firms have invested in Russia’s oil and gas, pharmaceutical and IT sectors, while Russian companies have put money into India’s energy, infrastructure and manufacturing industries.Yet behind the headline numbers lies a growing imbalance that threatens to complicate the partnership.

A trade corridor dominated by oil

The India–Russia energy corridor has emerged as a defining feature of bilateral trade—especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow.In FY 2024–25, India’s imports from Russia stood at roughly $63.8 billion, driven overwhelmingly by crude oil and petroleum products. In contrast, India’s exports to Russia were only about $4.9 billion, leaving a massive trade gap.India’s dependence on Russian crude has remained high despite Western sanctions. In November 2025, India imported 1.77 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, marking a 3.4% increase over October.Estimates suggest that imports in December 2025 could reach as much as 1.5 million bpd, supported by strong volumes exceeding 1.2 million bpd earlier in the month.The appeal is clear: discounted prices.Russian oil has remained attractive due to aggressive pricing by non-sanctioned producers. Indian refiners—both public and private—have continued to capitalise on these discounts.Imports from Russia surged from $5.94 billion in 2020 to $64.24 billion in 2024, with crude oil now forming the largest share of goods flowing from Russia to India.The bilateral trade agenda gained further momentum during President Putin’s December visit to India, which reinforced energy and strategic cooperation while reaffirming the ambitious $100 billion trade target by 2030.On December 6, India and Russia vowed to scale up bilateral trade to $100 billion by the end of the decade. PM Modi also said both countries were “actively working” towards the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.However, the very factors that propelled India–Russia trade growth are now introducing new complications. Western sanctions are steadily reshaping India’s oil trade, according to a report by Rubix Data Sciences, reducing dependence on discounted Russian crude and redirecting energy flows towards the United States and the United Arab Emirates.The effects have been particularly visible in exports. In hindsight, 2025 will be remembered neither as a flawless “Goldilocks year nor as one derailed by tariffs.” The economy did well even under pressure, but enters 2026 with unresolved global headwinds!

As the curtain begins to fall in 2025, India’s economic story resists easy labels. Was it the year the country was squeezed by global trade wars and tariffs? Or was it a rare “Goldilocks” moment, marked by strong growth, low inflation and ample policy room to support the economy?The answer lies somewhere in between.The year-end economic review of India reads as a story of resilience, reform and recalibration. From record stock market highs to a weakening rupee, from expanding trade ties to sudden tariff shocks, the year revealed how India’s economic fortunes are increasingly shaped by forces far beyond its borders.India ended 2025 as one of the world’s fastest-growing economy — but not without scars!

8.2% GDP growth: A standout year for expansion

India’s economic ascent continued to capture global attention in 2025. Already the world’s fourth-largest economy, the country is firmly on track to become the third-largest by 2030, with GDP projected at $6628.0 billion, according to the latest IMF World Economic Outlook report.The headline moment came with the release of second-quarter GDP data for FY 2025-26. Real Gross Domestic Product expanded by a stunning 8.2% during the July–September period — a sharp acceleration from the 5.6% growth recorded in the same quarter last year.The print exceeded market estimates and even surpassed the Reserve Bank of India’s projections, marking a six-quarter high.Combined with a strong 7.8% expansion in the April–June quarter, the economy grew by around 8% in the first half of the financial year, reinforcing India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy globally. Economists expect growth to remain resilient in the December quarter, supported by stronger consumption following GST rationalisation. “Now we can comfortably say full year growth will be 7% or north of 7%,” Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said after the data release.The National Statistics Office data cemented India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economy in the world, even as global growth slowed and tariffs on Indian exports to the US intensified.In its official statement, the government highlighted “Real GDP, adjusted for inflation, rose 8.2% in Q2 FY26, compared with 5.6% in Q2 FY25. Growth in Q1 FY26 stood at 7.8%, up from 6.5% a year earlier. Nominal GDP expanded by 8.7% in Q2, with all major sectors contributing to the expansion. The primary sector grew 3.1% year-on-year, while the secondary and tertiary sectors posted strong growth of 8.1% and 9.2%, respectively.“Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the numbers as validation of policy continuity and reform-led growth. “The 8.2% GDP growth in Q2 of 2025-26 is very encouraging. It reflects the impact of our pro-growth policies and reforms. It also reflects the hard work and enterprise of our people. Our govt will continue to advance reforms and strengthen the Ease of Living for every citizen,” he posted on X.

A rare ‘Goldilocks’ phase

If growth was the headline, inflation was the surprise.The Reserve Bank of India has described the current macroeconomic environment as a “rare goldilocks” phase, marked by strong growth alongside low inflation.India achieved a historic milestone in October 2025 when retail inflation fell to just 0.25%, the lowest year-on-year print in the current CPI series, according to government data. The print marked a sharp 119-basis-point fall from September, reflecting a dramatic easing in price pressures.Inflation edged up modestly to 0.71% in November, a 46-basis-point increase from October, but remained comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, underscoring a prolonged period of price stability.The cooling was driven largely by deflation in food prices. CPI inflation stayed benign through 2025-26, prompting the RBI to project average inflation at around 2% for the fiscal year, the lower bound of its tolerance range.The combination of inflation and a growth-oriented monetary stance has created space for further policy support, with expectations building around a complementary demand boost in the Union Budget 2026-27.

RBI cut repo rate

With inflation firmly under control, the central bank moved decisively to support growth. The RBI cut the repo rate during FY 2025-26, lowering it from 6.25% to 5.25%.The Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points during the calendar year 2025, bringing it down to 5.25%, while revising its inflation forecast to around 2% and nudging up full-year growth projections to about 7.3%.Including earlier actions, the RBI has now lowered rates by a total of 125 basis points since February 2025, marking its most aggressive easing cycle since 2019.

GST 2.0 kicks in: Simpler taxes, lower costs

One of the most consequential reforms of the year came in September with the launch of GST 2.0. The overhaul simplified India’s indirect tax architecture streamlined into two slabs — 5% and 18%, replacing the earlier four-rate system of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%. Most essentials, household items and daily-use goods now attract 5% GST or are exempt.Luxury and sin goods, including pan masala, tobacco, aerated drinks, high-end cars, yachts and private aircraft will be taxed at 40%, ensuring progressivity while safeguarding revenues.Life insurance premiums were made GST-free. Household goods, packaged foods, medicines, consumer durables, automobiles and farm equipment all became cheaper.GST on farm machinery, irrigation equipment and bio-pesticides has been slashed to 5%, reducing input costs and encouraging productivity and sustainable farming practices.The reform eased compliance, reduced costs, boosted festive demand and reinforced domestic manufacturing, delivering relief at both the consumer and enterprise level.

Budget 2025: Big relief for middle class

The Union Budget added another boost, delivering sweeping income tax relief under the new tax regime. The headline announcement was zero income tax on annual income up to Rs 12 lakh. For salaried individuals, the nil-tax threshold effectively rises to Rs 12.75 lakh, after accounting for the standard deduction of Rs 75,000, offering additional relief to middle-income earners.Slab rates were reworked to ease the burden on middle-income earners, significantly improving disposable incomes. Together, tax cuts, GST rationalisation, record-low inflation, robust GDP growth and accommodative monetary policy have created a supportive economic environment.These factors are expected to lift consumer spending, improve corporate profitability and sustain investment momentum. While currency volatility remains a risk to watch, the broader macro trend points to positive market sentiment and scope for sustained economic expansion.As the RBI summed up, “Economic activity during the first half of the financial year benefited from income tax and goods and services tax (GST) rationalisation, softer crude oil prices, front-loading of government capital expenditure, and facilitative monetary and financial conditions supported by benign inflation.”

Stock market showed strong peaks and weak finish

India’s equity markets delivered a mixed performance in 2025, touching record highs and lows during the year, later ending on a softer note as foreign selling intensified amid global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics.Strong consumer demand, steady government spending and ongoing structural reforms helped markets remain resilient for much of the year.Early 2025: Markets began cautiously, weighed down by global growth concerns, elevated interest rates in advanced economies and trade tensions. Still, benchmarks opened the year on a positive footing. On January 2, the BSE Sensex stood at 78,507.41 while the Nifty 50 was at 23,742.90, supported by buying in frontline stocks.Mid-year: A recovery was following however, global volatility spiked in April after US President Donald Trump, in his second term, announced sweeping new tariffs on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” triggering a sell-off across global markets.Late 2025: Volatility remained in the final months due to foreign portfolio outflows, rupee pressure and uncertainty around global monetary policy and geopolitics. Nifty 50 touched an all-time high of 26,326 on December 1, ending the year with gains of about 10.2%, while BSE Sensex also hit its highest-ever closing level of 86,159.02, reflecting steady gains and improving market breadth through much of the year.However, momentum faded toward the close. In the final sessions, benchmarks declined dragged down by continued foreign investor selling and a lack of strong domestic triggers. The Nifty 50 closed at 26,042.30, down 0.38%, while the Sensex fell 367 points, or 0.43%, to 85,041.45, after touching an intraday low of 84,937.82.Overall, the Indian markets showed a neutral-to-negative note in 2025.

India’s trade push: FTAs take centre stage

Even as protectionism rose, India pressed ahead with trade diplomacy. India stepped up its trade diplomacy in 2025, concluding key free trade agreements and reviving stalled negotiations as it sought to diversify export markets amid rising global protectionism and tariff barriers.India–New Zealand FTA (2025): India concluded a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with New Zealand on December 22, paving the way for duty-free entry of all Indian exports into the New Zealand market and a planned investment inflow of $20 billion over the next 15 years. PM Modi and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the deal via social media, with both sides aiming to double bilateral trade within five years.According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the pact strengthens India’s access to a high-income, rules-based Pacific market, while offering New Zealand deeper entry into one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies amid global trade uncertainty.India–Oman CEPA (2025): The India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) delivers near-complete duty-free access for Indian exports and opens opportunities across labour-intensive manufacturing, services and skilled workforce mobility.The deal marks a major expansion of India’s economic footprint in the Gulf region. Gulzar Didwania, Partner at Deloitte India, described the Oman CEPA and New Zealand FTA as “watershed moments” for India’s export-led growth strategy.

“The India–Oman CEPA delivers zero-duty access on nearly 98% of tariff lines, covering textiles, engineering goods, medical devices, pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Similarly, the India–New Zealand FTA removes tariffs on 100% of India’s exports, opening the NZ market widely and potentially doubling trade over five years,” he told TOI.India–UK CETA (2025): The India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) offers near-total duty-free access for Indian exports, with significant upside for labour-intensive sectors.India–Israel FTA: India and Israel have been negotiating an FTA since 2010, completing ten rounds covering 280 tariff lines. Talks stalled due to differences over services market access, particularly the temporary movement of Indian IT and skilled professionals. Negotiations gained fresh momentum in November 2025, when both sides signed the Terms of Reference, formally reviving discussions.India has already signed trade agreements with Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, the UAE and Mauritius. It is also part of:

The Downside: Rupee stress, tariffs and rising uncertainty

Despite strong domestic growth, 2025 exposed some of India’s economic vulnerabilities on the global front. The year was marked by rising trade tensions, currency pressure and heavy foreign capital outflows.

Rupee under pressure amid dollar strength

The Indian rupee remained volatile in December, slipping to a record low near Rs 91 per US dollar on December 16, weighed down by strong dollar demand and sustained foreign portfolio outflows. The rupee recovered some ground the following day, strengthening by 55 paise to close at Rs 90.38 on December 17. A further late-week rebound saw the currency rise from nearly Rs 91 to Rs 89.27 on December 19, though pressure soon returned.On December 26, the rupee closed at Rs 89.86 per dollar, dragged down by falling domestic equities, continued foreign fund outflows and higher crude oil prices.Despite intermittent recoveries, the rupee has emerged as one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year, hurt by US tariffs on Indian exports and weak portfolio inflows. The pace of depreciation has been a key concern.After breaching the Rs 90 per dollar level, the rupee slipped past Rs 91 within just 13 days. In less than a year, it has fallen from around Rs 85 to Rs 90, underscoring the speed of the decline.According to State Bank of India’s Ecowrap report, the rupee is expected to stabilise and recover next year, even as near-term volatility persists.

FII outflows hit record levels in 2025

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained persistent sellers of Indian equities throughout 2025, extending a selling trend that began in October 2024. As a result, 2025 has turned into the worst year on record for foreign equity flows into India.FIIs are set to close the year with a record-breaking exodus from Indian stock markets, marking the steepest annual net outflows ever witnessed in India’s capital markets.As of December 27, FIIs had sold equities worth Rs 22,130 crore through stock exchanges. This took cumulative equity selling in calendar year 2025 to Rs 2,31,990 crore. Investments via the primary market stood at Rs 73,583 crore, bringing net FII outflows for the year to Rs 1,58,407 crore, the highest annual net selling by FIIs since they began investing in India.According to Morgan Stanley, FII positioning in Indian equities is now close to cyclical lows. However, the brokerage cautioned that a sustained return of foreign inflows would depend on stronger growth momentum, relatively weaker equity performance in other markets, or higher corporate issuance levels.While domestic fundamentals remain relatively strong, currency volatility and foreign outflows continue to pose near-term challenges for Indian markets.

Yet 2025 was also defined by global headwinds!

Trade deals amid tariff wars

US President Donald Trump has often spoken warmly of his personal relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, repeatedly describing him as a “great friend.” However, Washington’s trade actions toward India in 2025 told a sharply different story.On August 1, the US imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, doubling it to 50% by August 27, alongside an additional “penalty” linked to India’s energy ties with Russia. The move marked one of the most aggressive trade actions taken against India in recent years.Trump accused India of maintaining some of the world’s highest tariffs and what he called “obnoxious” non-monetary trade barriers. He also criticised India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, saying this undermined global efforts to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine.His rhetoric escalated in July, when he said,”I don’t care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” New Delhi responded firmly stressing that the country remained firmly on track to become the world’s third-largest economy.

India–US trade talks: Progress slow

The United States remains India’s largest export destination, but trade ties faced strain after the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods.While discussions continue, a final agreement remains elusive. A recent visit by a US delegation to New Delhi failed to deliver a breakthrough, even as Prime Minister Modi and President Donald Trump have described bilateral engagement as positive.The US is pushing for greater exports of energy and agricultural products, while India has drawn a firm red line on opening its farm sector. Officials now believe a deal could be signed by March.The US administration has repeatedly cited its widening trade deficit with India as a key concern, arguing that India maintains relatively high tariffs on American goods and imposes market-access restrictions. “We have a massive trade deficit with India,” Trump said shortly before the initial 25% tariffs came into effect.According to analysts, 2026 could be the first full year in which countries begin grappling with the real-world consequences of a tariff-heavy global trade system, with implications for investment flows, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and currencies.

Immigration becomes a trade flashpoint

Trade negotiations have increasingly become entangled with US immigration policy, particularly around the H-1B visa programme, a critical channel for India’s services exports. The US raised the H-1B visa fee to $100,000, up from a previous range of $2,000–$5,000, sharply increasing hiring costs for employers.From December 15, the US State Department also introduced enhanced screening and vetting, including scrutiny of applicants’ social media profiles, for both H-1B and dependent H-4 visas.This shift could significantly disadvantage entry-level professionals and recent international graduates, many of whom are Indian, raising fresh concerns about India’s largest and fastest-growing services export channel to the US.

Mexico: The 50% shock in the trade outlook

One of the most unexpected jolts to India’s trade outlook in 2025 came not from a global superpower, but from Mexico.In December, Mexico announced a blanket tariff hike of up to 50% on imports from non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries, a move aimed at blocking Chinese trans-shipments from entering the United States duty-free. The decision had immediate and significant implications for Indian exporters.Under the measure, import duties ranging from 5% to 50% will apply to around 1,463 product categories from countries that do not have an FTA with Mexico, including India. The revised tariffs will come into effect from January 1, 2026, though the detailed product list has yet to be officially published.According to estimates by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the impact on Indian trade could be severe. “Nearly 75% of India’s $5.75 billion exports to Mexico will be affected as tariffs jump from 0-15% to around 35%,” the think-tank said.For Indian exporters, particularly in sectors such as automobiles, textiles, engineering goods and consumer products, the decision threatens to undo years of market-building efforts in Latin America.India and Mexico are currently preparing to begin discussions on a bilateral free trade agreement, with formal negotiation parameters expected to be finalised shortly. Analysts believe such an agreement could help insulate Indian exporters from the tariff shock.

Russia: A relationship grows, but unevenly

India and Russia share a long-standing relationship, with economic ties dating back to the Soviet era. In the decades since, bilateral trade and investment have steadily expanded, with cooperation spanning energy, defence, pharmaceuticals and information technology.In the post-Soviet era, India–Russia trade rose from $1.4 billion in 1995 to a record $68.7 billion in FY 2024–25. Indian firms have invested in Russia’s oil and gas, pharmaceutical and IT sectors, while Russian companies have put money into India’s energy, infrastructure and manufacturing industries.Yet behind the headline numbers lies a growing imbalance that threatens to complicate the partnership.

A trade corridor dominated by oil

The India–Russia energy corridor has emerged as a defining feature of bilateral trade—especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow.In FY 2024–25, India’s imports from Russia stood at roughly $63.8 billion, driven overwhelmingly by crude oil and petroleum products. In contrast, India’s exports to Russia were only about $4.9 billion, leaving a massive trade gap.India’s dependence on Russian crude has remained high despite Western sanctions. In November 2025, India imported 1.77 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil, marking a 3.4% increase over October.Estimates suggest that imports in December 2025 could reach as much as 1.5 million bpd, supported by strong volumes exceeding 1.2 million bpd earlier in the month.The appeal is clear: discounted prices.Russian oil has remained attractive due to aggressive pricing by non-sanctioned producers. Indian refiners—both public and private—have continued to capitalise on these discounts.Imports from Russia surged from $5.94 billion in 2020 to $64.24 billion in 2024, with crude oil now forming the largest share of goods flowing from Russia to India.The bilateral trade agenda gained further momentum during President Putin’s December visit to India, which reinforced energy and strategic cooperation while reaffirming the ambitious $100 billion trade target by 2030.On December 6, India and Russia vowed to scale up bilateral trade to $100 billion by the end of the decade. PM Modi also said both countries were “actively working” towards the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.However, the very factors that propelled India–Russia trade growth are now introducing new complications. Western sanctions are steadily reshaping India’s oil trade, according to a report by Rubix Data Sciences, reducing dependence on discounted Russian crude and redirecting energy flows towards the United States and the United Arab Emirates.The effects have been particularly visible in exports. In hindsight, 2025 will be remembered neither as a flawless “Goldilocks year nor as one derailed by tariffs.” The economy did well even under pressure, but enters 2026 with unresolved global headwinds!

NEW DELHI: BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla on Saturday accused Congress leader Rahul Gandhi of putting “family interests above national interest” while defending Operation Sindoor. He cited Congress MP Shashi Tharoor’s remarks to counter Opposition criticism of the military operation.In a post on X, the BJP leader wrote: “Once again a fact check for Rahul Gandhi & his ilk like Prithviraj Chavan from Shashi Tharoor. Shows them a mirror on their fake narratives about Op Sindoor & ‘surrender’ narrative.”

Referring to comments made earlier by Tharoor, Poonawalla said even leaders from the Opposition had acknowledged that national security issues should rise above partisan politics.“Foreign policy is not of the BJP or Congress, but of India. If someone in politics rejoices at the defeat of a Prime Minister, they are celebrating the defeat of India.”Using the remark to attack the Congress leadership, Poonawalla added: “Sadly Rahul Gandhi puts parivarik interest above India’s interest. In his hatred for BJP — he hates India.”This is not the first time the BJP spokesperson has cited Shashi Tharoor to target the Opposition. Earlier, Poonawalla had referred to Tharoor’s article criticising dynastic politics to take aim at the Gandhi family and the Congress leadership. Describing the piece as “insightful”, Poonawalla had hailed the Congress MP as a “Khatron ke Khiladi” for openly questioning political succession within his own party.

‘Completely defeated’: Prithviraj Chavan after Operation Sindoor

The BJP’s sharp response comes amid a political storm triggered by remarks from senior Congress leader and former Maharashtra chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, who earlier this month claimed that India was “completely defeated” on the first day of Operation Sindoor.Speaking to reporters in Pune, Chavan had said: “On the first day (of Operation Sindoor) we were completely defeated. In the half-hour aerial engagement that took place on the 7th, we were fully defeated, whether people accept it or not. Indian aircraft were shot down. The Air Force was completely grounded, and not a single aircraft flew.”He further questioned the nature of modern warfare and the size of India’s armed forces.“Recently, we saw during Operation Sindoor, there was not even a one-kilometre movement of the military… Whatever happened over two or three days was only an aerial war and missile warfare. In such a situation, do we really need to maintain an army of 12 lakh soldiers, or can we make they do some other work?”The comments drew strong criticism from the BJP, which accused the Congress of repeatedly undermining the armed forces. Responding on X earlier, Poonawalla had said the statements were “shocking” and alleged that the Congress had a history of questioning military actions, adding: “Sena ka apman is Congress ki pehchaan.”Chavan, however, refused to apologise for his remarks, insisting that he had a constitutional right to question government actions.“Why will I apologise? It is out of the question. The Constitution gives me the right to ask questions,” he said.

Rahul Gandhi cites Donald Trump on Operation Sindoor

The BJP has also linked the controversy to Rahul Gandhi’s earlier remarks on Operation Sindoor, in which the Congress leader cited US President Donald Trump’s claims and alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi halted military action under external pressure.Gandhi had said: “Trump dialled PM Modi and said: Sunn… yeh jo tu kar raha hai isko 24 ghante ke andar band kar… aur Narendra Modi ne paanch ghante ke andar saara ka saara rok diya.” (Listen… whatever you’re doing, stop it within 24 hours, and Narendra Modi stopped everything within five hours.)The government has repeatedly rejected this claim. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that Prime Minister Modi and Trump had no calls during the period in question, while PM Modi himself said in the Lok Sabha: “No world leader asked for suspension of Operation Sindoor.”Operation Sindoor was launched by India on May 7, targeting terror infrastructure deep inside Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, in retaliation for the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 civilians were killed.

UP might soon be home to Taiwan Electrical & Electronic Manufacturers’ Association (Teema)’s technology park as the Uttar Pradesh Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority (Yeida) is emerging as one of the key contenders for the proposed Indian facility, people familiar with the matter said.Foxconn chairman Young Liu, who currently heads Teema, and is part of a broader first-phase plan that includes the US, Mexico and Poland is heading the initiative. Teema is also said to be in discussions with several other Indian states as it evaluates potential locations. “The tech park may come up in the Yeida region, close to Foxconn’s upcoming OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) facility,” one of the people told ET. “The Teema plan layout has been designed to be constructed right next to a Foxconn campus. The strategy is simple, to create advanced smart manufacturing hubs in strategic locations worldwide, exporting Taiwan’s successful technology park experience.” The project focuses on the creation of an AI-integrated and ESG-focused global manufacturing network and is being led by V Lee, former India head of Foxconn, the people cited said. The aim is to improve the global competitiveness of Taiwanese companies while speeding up the international expansion of Taiwan’s electronics supply chain. Taiwanese engineering, procurement and construction company CTCI is collaborating on the project along with Foxconn. “As nations strive for economic growth, the development of Teema Technology Parks become crucial to help Taiwanese companies expand globally and manage supply chain challenges and geopolitical risks,” ET reportedm citing one person familiar with the matter. “The entire initiative aims to combine Foxconn’s experience in high-tech manufacturing and supply chain integration with CTCI’s strength in large-scale engineering turnkey projects and project management to create internationally competitive and sustainable industrial clusters overseas.” The global technology park strategy was announced on November 21, when Foxconn and Teema said they would jointly develop manufacturing hubs in the US, India, Mexico and Poland. They noted that the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains and the growing focus on local manufacturing were prompting Taiwanese companies to seek overseas production bases and transshipment hubs to preserve export flexibility and competitive advantage. According to the announcement, the initiative is also intended to drive industrial internationalisation by enabling small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to enter global supply chains through the overseas expansion and technological capabilities of larger companies. This includes encouraging large Taiwanese firms to lead smaller players in building supply chains abroad, reducing trade barriers and supporting international growth. Teema had also said it was collecting data on key markets across North America, Europe and Asia and working on overseas expansion strategies for each of the four identified countries. In the first phase, supply chain integration platforms will be set up in all four locations, with the initial technology park planned for Sonora in Mexico.According to an ET report in April, Foxconn was evaluating around 300 acres along the Yamuna Expressway in Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, for its first manufacturing facility in north India. The proposed site is close to the land acquired by HCL-Foxconn for an outsourced OSAT facility. However, those plans were later put on hold after tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump came into effect. While the current status of Foxconn’s north India project remains unclear, Teema may be considering the Yeida region due to its proximity to the upcoming Jewar airport. The location would Taiwanese companies an opportunity to expand into a new region, as most of their Indian manufacturing operations are currently based in southern states.

Interstellar objects usually pass through quietly, noticed only by a small group of astronomers before fading back into deep space. Comet 3I/ATLAS has followed a different path. Even as it moves away from Earth and heads out of the solar system, it keeps offering scientists new details to puzzle over. Recent observations suggest this visitor from another star system behaves in ways that are both familiar and oddly unusual. Its dust and gas do not simply trail behind it as expected. Instead, parts of the comet appear to move in shifting patterns that change over time. These movements are subtle, not dramatic, but they matter. They give researchers a rare chance to study how an untouched object, formed far beyond our Sun, reacts when exposed to solar heat for the first time.3I/ATLAS is only the third known object confirmed to have entered the solar system from interstellar space. Before it, astronomers identified the unusual object Oumuamua in 2017 and the comet 2I Borisov in 2019. Each arrival has added a small piece to a much larger picture of how other planetary systems form and evolve.

What is a sun facing antitail of comet 3I/ATLAS

Most comets develop tails that stream away from the Sun, pushed back by solar radiation and the solar wind. An anti tail is different. It appears to extend in the opposite direction, toward the Sun. This effect is uncommon but not unheard of among comets from our own solar system.In the case of 3I/ATLAS, the anti tail became especially interesting because it showed narrow jet like features. These jets were not static. Over repeated observations, they appeared to wobble, shifting position in a slow and regular way. This behaviour hinted that something more complex was happening at the comet’s core, as per a paper published on the paper repository site arXiv.

How were the wobbling jets discovered

Astronomers detected these changes after observing 3I/ATLAS across 37 nights between early July and early September 2025. The work was carried out using the Two meter Twin Telescope at the Teide Observatory in Tenerife.Over time, the team watched the comet’s coma change shape. Before August, it looked like a fan of dust facing the Sun. Later, as the comet moved closer to its October approach to the Sun, a clearer tail pointing away from the Sun became visible. Within the sun facing structure, the jets appeared on seven separate nights.By tracking their movement, researchers noticed a regular pattern. The jets seemed to shift every seven hours and forty five minutes, suggesting a slow precession rather than random motion.

What does the wobble reveal about the comet

The most likely explanation for the wobbling jets is rotation. As the comet spins, active areas on its surface release gas and dust in changing directions. From Earth, this looks like a gentle oscillation.From the data, scientists estimate that the nucleus of 3I/ATLAS completes one full rotation roughly every fifteen hours and thirty minutes. This is shorter than earlier estimates and suggests the comet’s interior structure may be more compact or uneven than first thought.Because this object formed around another star, its behaviour offers a glimpse into physical processes that may be common elsewhere in the galaxy.

Why is this discovery important

Jets and outgassing have been observed in solar system comets before. What makes this case stand out is that it is the first time such behaviour has been clearly seen in an interstellar comet.Researchers describe 3I/ATLAS as a pristine body. It likely spent billions of years in deep space before briefly encountering the Sun. Studying how it reacts to solar heating helps scientists test models of comet formation beyond our own planetary system.As the researchers noted in their paper, this is a rare opportunity that may not come again soon.

What happens to 3I/ATLAS next

On December 19, 2025, the comet came the closest to Earth, and since then it has been drifting away. It is projected to leave the solar system completely, just like other visitors from other stars.Its trip is almost ended, yet it will still be useful to science for a long time. Astronomers will keep using the information they got from this short visit to change how they think about comets, rotation, and planetary systems outside of our own. When 3I/ATLAS ultimately leaves our solar system, it will leave behind more questions than answers. This is generally how progress starts.

Ben Stokes and Steve Smith said on Saturday that a Test match finishing in two days was “not what you want”, adding to criticism of the Melbourne Cricket Ground pitch after the fourth Test between Australia and England ended early.A total of 20 wickets fell on the opening day on Friday, with Australia bowled out for 152 and England dismissed for 110. Another 16 wickets fell on day two, bringing the match to an end within 142 overs as England won by four wickets.“When you go out there and you’re faced with those conditions, you’ve got to crack on and deal with it,” Stokes said after England ended a 15-year wait for a Test win on Australian soil.“But being brutally honest, that’s not really what you want.”“You know, Boxing Day Test match, you don’t want a game finishing in less than two days,” the English captain added. “It’s not ideal, but you can’t change it once you start the game and you’ve just got to play what’s in front of you.”Smith said the pitch had too much grass, which created excessive seam movement and made batting difficult.“It was tricky. No one could really get in. I think when you see 36 wickets across two days, that’s probably too much,” he said.“It probably did a little bit more than they wanted it to. Maybe if we dropped it down to eight millimetres, it would be about right.”Cricket Australia chief executive Todd Greenberg said short Test matches were damaging from a commercial point of view. The Boxing Day match saw the most wickets fall on the first day of an Ashes Test since 1909.The concerns followed the first Test of the series in Perth, where 19 wickets fell on day one and the match also finished in two days, resulting in significant financial losses for Cricket Australia.“A simple phrase I’d use is short Tests are bad for business. I can’t be much more blunt than that,” Greenberg said.“So I would like to see a slightly broader balance between the bat and the ball.”Several former players also criticised the Melbourne pitch. Former England captain Michael Vaughan called it “a joke” on Saturday, adding, “This is selling the game short.” Another former England captain, Alastair Cook, described it as “an unfair contest”.Pitch preparation in Australia is traditionally handled independently by curators, without input from team captains or Cricket Australia. Greenberg, however, indicated that greater oversight may be required.“It’s hard not to get more involved when you see the impact on the sport, especially commercially,” he said.“I’m not suggesting I’ll go around talking to ground staff, but we do have to have a careful eye on what our expectations are over the course of a summer.”

Saudi Arabia emerged as the single largest source of Indian deportations in the Gulf in 2025, overtaking even the United States, according to the figures tabled by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in the Rajya Sabha. The data shows that more than 24,600 Indians were deported globally in 2025, spanning 81 countries, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations accounting for a substantial share of removals. Among GCC countries, Saudi Arabia alone accounted for 10,884 deportations in 2025, out of a regional total of 13,133, followed by the UAE (1,469), Bahrain (764), and Oman (16). Figures for Kuwait and Qatar were not listed in the MEA’s Annexure-I for the year. The same annexure shows that between 2021 and 2025, total Indian deportations from GCC countries reached 56,460, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 49,084 across its Riyadh and Jeddah missions, again far outstripping the UAE (3,979), Bahrain (3,202) and Oman (195).

Why Saudi Arabia dominates the numbers

Saudi Arabia hosts one of the largest concentrations of Indian blue-collar workers in the Gulf, particularly in construction, domestic work, caregiving and other labour-intensive sectors. This is closely linked to the Kingdom’s aggressive build-out under Vision 2030, with mega-projects such as NEOM, Qiddiya, the Red Sea Project and Diriyah Gate driving sustained demand for foreign labour across infrastructure, housing and services.MEA data shows that Indian blue-collar workers are present across 14 countries, accounting for about 1.6 million people between January 2020 and June 2025, with the Gulf as the core destination. Among these, Saudi Arabia has the highest number of Indian workers, estimated at 695,269, followed by the UAE (341,365), Kuwait (201,959), Qatar (153,501) and Oman (116,840).Employers and officials say recruitment accelerated sharply after the pandemic, particularly in 2022 and 2023, when labour demand rebounded alongside stalled projects restarting. In 2023 alone, 398,000 workers were sent abroad, with Saudi Arabia employing 200,713 labourers that year and a further 167,598 in 2024. The scale of this intake, experts note, also increases exposure to regulatory enforcement, especially as the Kingdom tightens compliance checks around visas, permits and residency status.That pace continued into 2025. Between January and June, Saudi Arabia recruited 71,175 Indian workers, while the UAE hired 96,401, the highest among Gulf states in that period. Experts note that at such volumes, even limited instances of visa or permit non-compliance can translate into large absolute numbers of deportations once enforcement tightens.

The compliance challenge

As recruitment volumes expanded across the Gulf, enforcement followed. Authorities across the region tightened scrutiny of migrant workers, with overstays, visa violations and work-permit issues emerging as the primary triggers for deportation. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain together accounted for thousands of removals as monitoring increased in step with large-scale labour intake and more systematic compliance checks.Bheema Reddy, vice-chairman of Telangana’s NRI advisory committee, said the scale of migration itself often increases exposure to enforcement action. Speaking to TOI, he said: “Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia attract a huge influx of Indian workers, many of whom are low-skilled and come through agents. In the pursuit of better earnings, minor violations of local laws can quickly escalate into deportation cases.”After Saudi Arabia, the UAE recorded the second-highest number of Indian deportations in the GCC in 2025, with 1,469 nationals sent home, followed by 764 from Bahrain. As in Saudi Arabia, common causes included overstaying visas, working without valid permits, absconding from employers, or breaching labour regulations.Officials say enforcement has become increasingly systematic, with closer monitoring of visa timelines, employer records and residency compliance. “Indian workers must track their visa timelines carefully and understand local laws,” Naga Bharani of the Telangana Overseas Manpower Company told TOI, adding that “simple awareness and timely extensions can prevent deportation.”

Recruitment practices and India’s response

A recurring theme across GCC deportations is the role of recruitment agents in India. Misrepresentation of job roles, salaries or visa categories often leaves workers exposed abroad, sometimes without a clear understanding of host-country labour laws.Reddy told TOI that misleading recruitment practices remain a recurring problem. “Many cases arise from workers being lured by promises of better pay or conditions, only to face legal consequences when regulations are breached,” he said, adding that “education before departure is crucial.” The Government of India has repeatedly stressed that only legal migration routes should be used. Overseas recruitment is regulated under the Emigration Act, 1983, and since 2015, emigration to Emigration Check Required (ECR) countries has been processed through the eMigrate portal, a digital system for registering recruitment agencies and issuing emigration clearance. The MEA has also rolled out schemes such as the Pravasi Bharatiya Bima Yojana (PBBY), Pre-Departure Orientation and Training (PDOT), and the ‘Surakshit Jayen, Prashikshit Jayen’ campaign to improve awareness and reduce vulnerability among migrant workers. India has additionally signed Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreements with six countries, including the UK, France and Germany, and Labour Mobility Agreements with 12 countries, including several GCC states. Despite these measures, the latest figures underline the scale of the challenge. With Saudi Arabia continuing to dominate both Indian labour inflows and deportations, experts say stricter compliance, better recruitment oversight and stronger pre-departure awareness will be critical to reversing the trend.

When five scheduled pickup requests were cancelled without explanation, Ramesh Kumar (name changed) approached the National Consumer Helpline. Months after ordering the furniture online, Kumar, the Jodhpur resident was still stuck with defective goods and no refund. Then his call to 1915, changed everything. Within days, government’s National Consumer Helpline stepped in and secured his money back.Thousands were stuck in a similar situation. Between April and December, the helpline resolved 67,265 consumer complaints and facilitated refunds worth Rs 45 crore, according to official data released on Saturday. “Thank you so much, Consumer Helpline, for helping cheated consumers like me,” he wrote after NCH intervened and secured a full refund within days.According to the data, e-commerce alone accounted for nearly 40,000 grievances and refunds worth Rs 32 crore, making up more than two-thirds of the total amount recovered. In Bengaluru, another consumer faced a prolonged struggle after paying for an annual internet plan. While the payment was deducted immediately, the promised connection never materialised. Customer care assured him that the refund would be processed within 10 working days. Four months later, after repeated calls, there was still no clarity. Once the National Consumer Helpline stepped in, the refund was issued almost immediately. “It was a good experience. Otherwise, it was difficult to get the amount back,” he said.Travel and tourism emerged as the next major sector, with refunds totalling Rs 3.5 crore. A similar intervention helped a consumer in Chennai who cancelled a flight ticket 96 hours before departure, well within the stipulated refund period. Despite repeated follow-ups, the airline failed to process the refund. “Thanks to NCH for the quick action. Am delighted by your efforts,” the consumer wrote. Unlike formal legal proceedings, the National Consumer Helpline operates at the pre-litigation stage. This allows disputes to be resolved without consumers having to approach Consumer Commissions under the Consumer Protection Act, 2019, reducing both costs and delays, while also easing pressure on the judicial system. The helpline accepts complaints in 17 languages and is accessible through multiple channels, including a toll-free number (1915), WhatsApp (8800001915), SMS, email, a mobile app and a web portal. This has enabled consumers from metropolitan centres as well as remote regions to seek redress. Officials point to the expansion of convergence partners, companies and platforms that work directly with NCH to resolve complaints, as a key factor behind its improved outcomes in 2025. The approach reflects growing cooperation within India’s consumer protection framework. Five sectors: e-commerce, travel and tourism, agency services, electronic products and airlines, together contributed over 85% of the Rs 45 crore refunded during the year. These are also areas where individual consumers often lack the means to pursue prolonged disputes. The spread of complaints across Tier-1 cities and smaller towns highlights the helpline’s national reach and the extent to which digital commerce has penetrated less-connected regions. It also points to a growing willingness among consumers across India to assert their rights. Over the course of 2025, the National Consumer Helpline has moved beyond being just a government service, emerging instead as a key gateway for consumer grievance resolution before legal action becomes necessary.