Russia has maintained its position as India’s primary supplier in November, providing over one-third of all crude oil imports. (AI image)

Donald Trump’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil – two of Russia’s major crude firms – may result in India’s imports of oil from Moscow dropping – but will this shift be permanent? Analysts expect India to continue procuring Russian crude through non-sanctioned entities and even indirect and less transparent routes. In fact, Russian grade imports to India in November are set to reach a five-month peak, primarily due to increased purchases before the 21 November sanctions deadline. India’s crude oil imports from Russia have emerged as a major point of contention between New Delhi and Washington. The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on India – one of the highest by the US – consist of 25% penal tariffs for India’s crude oil imports from Russia. The Trump government has accused India of indirectly funding Russia’s war against Ukraine through its crude oil trade.India has maintained its sovereignty in deciding its trade partners and procure energy through the economically advantageous channels. However, the Trump administration in October this year sanctioned two of the biggest Russian oil firms – major suppliers of crude to Indian refiners. For Trump, the sanctions may finally have the desired impact of Indian refiners reducing their crude oil purchases.How have the sanctions been playing out? Has India reduced its crude oil trade with Russia substantially? And what are India’s alternatives?

India-Russia crude oil trade: Important numbers

* India became the leading purchaser of Russian crude oil at discounted rates after Western nations boycotted Moscow in response to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. India, which traditionally sourced oil from Middle Eastern nations, substantially increased its Russian oil purchases as sanctions and diminished European demand made these barrels available at considerable discounts, raising Russia’s share from less than 1 per cent to approximately 40 per cent of total crude imports. *According to Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider, Russia has maintained its position as India’s primary supplier in November, providing over one-third of all crude oil imports.* This situation is likely to shift following the implementation of US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned subsidiaries from November 21, effectively categorising crude associated with these companies as a “sanctioned molecule”.* These sanctions have prompted several companies, including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd to temporarily cease imports. Nayara Energy, supported by Rosneft, remains the sole exception, as it heavily relies on Russian crude after European Union sanctions effectively terminated supplies from other global sources. * Russian crude arrivals have maintained robust levels, with an average of approximately 1.8 mbpd, constituting over 35% of India’s total crude imports. Prior to November 21, import levels were higher at 1.9-2.0 mbpd as purchasers expedited shipments before the deadline, following which volumes have decreased. “It looks like refiners stocked up on crude ahead of the sanctions, planning to process it once the rules were in force,” says Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.A notable decline in Russia’s exports to India has emerged since the OFAC sanctions announced on October 23, current shipping patterns and voyage data suggest. “We expect December arrivals to be in the range of 1.0 mbpd. This aligns with our earlier view that, in the short term, Russian flows could ease toward ~800 kbd before stabilising,” says Ritolia.Several factors contribute to November’s robust performance:* Expedited arrivals prior to 21 November deadline, with refiners enhancing scheduling efficiency and vessel turnaround times, especially for Rosneft- and Lukoil-associated shipments.* Strong domestic fuel requirements and intensive refinery operations during Q4, as Russian supplies remained the most cost-effective additional feedstock.* Enhanced performance at Nayara, operating predominantly on Russian grades, has been noticeable since September. Crude imports attained approximately 400 kbd through November, whilst refinery operations averaged 380-400 kbd in November, showing an increase of 20-25 kbd compared to October.

Will India stop buying Russian crude oil?

Refiners are implementing strategic adjustments for the intermediate future. These include engaging with non-sanctioned Russian entities, utilising less transparent trading channels, and increasing procurement from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas, says Kpler.“On the Russian side, the response has been highly adaptive, involving STS transfers near Mumbai, mid-voyage diversions, and more complex logistics to keep barrels moving and increase discounts. As long as broader secondary sanctions aren’t applied, India is likely to continue importing Russian crude—just through more indirect and less transparent routes,” says Ritolia.Concerning market sentiment, oil refiners point out that sanctions apply only to specific entities, not Russian oil in general. They maintain that purchases can proceed when dealing with compliant, non-sanctioned suppliers. The appealing price discounts continue to drive sustained demand.Kpler points out that the workaround is simple and already well-tested: continue buying Russian crude, but through intermediaries. If the barrels are supplied via third-party trading entities, entities that can credibly show they are not Rosneft/Lukoil, then refiners can keep accessing discounted supply while limiting the appearance of sanctionable contact, says Kpler. “This is a trend that has already started with new sellers emerging such as Tatneft, RusExport, MorExport or Alghaf Marine DMCC. However, November numbers may continue to adjust downward / upward as more destination-day and port-call data becomes available,” says Ritolia.

Impact of US sanctions

Importantly, Ritolia notes that while India’s oil imports from Russia are likely to decrease after sanctions, the decline is most likely to be temporary, allowing the supply chain to reorganise itself. “Unless more expansive secondary sanctions are introduced, India will continue to buy from a non-sanctioned supplier of Russian oil. The reasons are multiple: the geopolitical and economic dimensions are both essential. Political leaders will not want to be seen as bending down to US sanctions. At the same time, Russian barrels remain highly cost-competitive, and workarounds to maintain flows are likely to emerge. In particular, buyers may increasingly pivot to non-sanctioned Russian entities and opaque trading channels,” Sumit Ritolia says.

India’s procurement of US crude & other alternatives

India’s crude imports from the United States reached a peak of 568 kbd in October, the highest level since 2022, as per Kpler data. Although these imports decreased to approximately 450 kbd in November, they remained significantly above the year-to-date average of ~300 kbd. “These flows were almost certainly contracted before the recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, given the 45–55-day voyage time, meaning the spike was not sanctions-driven but instead part of India’s ongoing effort to diversify its crude slate and strengthen energy security,” says Kpler.The primary drivers for this increase were economic factors, including a favourable arbitrage opportunity, an expanded Brent-WTI differential, and reduced Chinese demand, which made WTI Midland cost-effective on a delivered basis. However, the November decline indicates the limitations of this opportunity. Current export patterns suggest that December crude imports will likely decrease to 300-350 kbd, with subsequent levels expected to stabilise around ~300 kbd.The potential for substantial growth remains limited due to extended voyage times, increased freight costs, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich composition.

Alternatives to Russian crude

“Even so, the elevated US presence in India’s crude basket underscores the deepening strategic energy alignment between the two countries and supports India’s broader diversification strategy balancing security, economics, and geopolitics,” notes Kpler’s Ritolia.Indian refiners’ technical sophistication allows them to process various crude grades without operational challenges. The primary impact of reducing Russian volumes would be financial rather than technical. To address the temporary reduction in Russian oil supplies, Indian refineries are planning to expand their procurement from diverse sources including:

File photo: Defense minister Rajnath Singh (Picture credit: PTI)

NEW DELHI: Defense minister Rajnath Singh on Tuesday said Operation Sindoor had sent a clear signal that India responds firmly when pushed, drawing a parallel between the government’s action against terrorism and the decisive leadership of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel. Speaking at the ‘Sardar Sabha’ in Vadodara’s Sadhli village during the Unity March organised to mark Patel’s 150th birth anniversary, he said the operation demonstrated India’s ability to act when peace efforts are ignored.

“India showed the world through Operation Sindoor that it is capable of giving a befitting reply to those who do not understand the language of peace and goodwill”, Singh said, as quoted by news agency PTI.Singh praised the armed forces for the success of the mission, stating that “the world is today acknowledging the bravery and capabilities of Indian soldiers.” He added that Patel too believed in dialogue but did not hesitate to take a hard line when required, recalling his role in Hyderabad’s merger. According to him, the present government had upheld the same value through Operation Sindoor, which is “being discussed not only on Indian soil but also in other countries around the world”.The minister targeted former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru over the Babri Masjid issue, saying Nehru intended to construct it using public funds, a proposal prevented by Patel. Singh said Patel had also clarified that the restoration of the Somnath Temple was different because the Rs 30 lakh required had been contributed by ordinary citizens. “Similarly, the government didn’t give a single rupee to construct the Ram Temple in Ayodhya,” he said, calling it an example of “real secularism”.Singh said the Modi government had strengthened Patel’s vision of a united India, citing the removal of Article 370. He argued that if Patel’s approach had been followed during the accession of Kashmir, the issue would not have lingered for decades. He also criticised attempts by earlier governments to minimise Patel’s legacy, claiming that even memorial funds raised by people were redirected on Nehru’s instructions.He questioned why Patel was not given the Bharat Ratna at the time, noting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi later honoured him through the Statue of Unity.Emphasising national security and defense modernisation, Singh said Patel had long pushed for indigenous capability — an approach the current government is pursuing through Make in India. India aims to achieve defense production worth Rs 3 lakh crore and exports of Rs 50,000 crore by 2029, he said, highlighting that defense exports had risen nearly 34-fold in 11 years.He also spoke of the proposed Constitution (130th Amendment) Bill 2025, which seeks ethical conduct from those in high office, providing for automatic removal if a person arrested on serious charges does not secure bail within 30 days.Singh said Patel himself cared little for position, recalling that he stepped aside in 1946 on Mahatma Gandhi’s advice, allowing Nehru to become Congress president despite having majority backing.Senior leaders, including Punjab governor Gulab Chand Kataria and Uttarakhand chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, also attended the event.

Samantha Ruth Prabhu tied the knot with ‘The Family Man’ director Raj Nidimoru of Raj and DK fame, on Monday, December 1 at Ling Bhairavi Temple inside the Isha Yoga Centre earlier today. . The actress announced her wedding with first pictures on social media which were nothing short of stunning. Samantha Ruth Prabhu was earlier married to actor Naga Chaitanya and they got divorced in 2021. Last year, Chaitanya got married to Sobhita Dhulipala on December 4. Now a year later, this December, Samantha has tied the knot again. She found love and the internet cannot stop showering love on her. Meanwhile, Raj was earlier married earlier to Shhyamali De. Just as Samantha and Raj announced their wedding, a picture of the director with ex-wife while holding a little girl has gone viral and some are saying that it’s Raj’s daughter with his ex-wife. However, here’s the truth. In May 2025, Pinkvilla had reported that Raj and Samantha have moved in together when rumours of them had surfaced online. Even then, Raj’s picture with this little girl had gone viral. The portal had quoted a source saying that time, “Samantha and Raj are considering moving in together and are scouting for properties. They have the intent to live together and are working in that direction. Raj got officially divorced to Shhyamali in 2022 and found love in Samantha after they collaborated for Citadel. Meanwhile, reports about Raj being spotted with his daughter are false. He doesn’t have a daughter, and the kid he was spotted with is his co-director Krishna Dk’s daughter.”

Raj and Shhyamali De had tied the knot in 2015 and they got divorced in 2022. Raj fell in love with Samatha during the shooting of ‘Citadel’. Reportedly, Samantha and Raj have an age-gap of eight years. Rumours of their relationship had surfaced in early 2024 and it was also reported that last year, Samantha visited Raj in the US to meet his family. Meanwhile, a day after Raj’s wedding with Samantha, Shhyamali has dropped a note about karmic connections. She wrote, “Through the bond of past debts (runānubandha), one becomes connected with pets, spouse, children, and home… When those karmic debts are exhausted, those relationships come to an end.”

India and South Africa face off in the 2nd ODI on Wednesday (December 3), at the Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Cricket Stadium in Raipur, with the home team aiming to wrap up the series after their thrilling win in Ranchi.

KL Rahul’s side enters confident, boosted by Virat Kohli’s match-winning 135 and Rohit Sharma’s steady 57, which powered India to 349 in the opener.

With a balanced Raipur pitch expected to aid seam early and spin later, India will rely again on rising all-rounder Harshit Rana and wrist-spinner Kuldeep Yadav, whose breakthroughs at key moments helped seal the first match. Rahul’s adaptable No. 6 role continues to give India flexibility and depth.

Meanwhile, South Africa will look to respond strongly after falling just 17 runs short in Ranchi. Their bowlers, including Marco Jansen and Ottniel Baartman, must strike early to challenge India’s top order, while the middle order – anchored by Matthew Breetzke – will need greater stability during the chase.

Raipur Pitch Report

The surface at the Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Cricket Stadium in Raipur for the India vs South Africa 2nd ODI is expected to offer a balanced contest between bat and ball. The fresh grass and firmness early on should aid the seamers, providing swing and seam movement in the opening overs. As the match progresses, the pitch is likely to settle, making stroke-making easier and allowing batsmen to build substantial innings. Spinners could also find some purchase in the middle overs as the surface begins to show signs of wear.

Although the venue has hosted just one ODI game, scoring trends and wicket patterns from the previous match suggest that captain winning the toss may lean towards chasing.

Overall, a competitive encounter is anticipated, where disciplined bowling and well-timed aggressive batting will be crucial. Conditions should favour pace early before gradually easing for batting as the innings unfold.

Also READ: IND vs SA – Harsha Bhogle reveals what Virat Kohli said in their off-air chat before discussing his Test return

Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Cricket Stadium ODI Stats and Records

• Total matches: 1
• Matches won batting first: 0
• Matches won bowling first: 1
• Average 1st innings score: 108
• Average 2nd innings score: 111
• Highest total recorded: 111/2 (20.1 Overs) by India vs New Zealand
• Lowest total recorded: 108/10 (34.3 Overs) by New Zealand vs India
• Best bowling: 3/18 (Mohammed Shami)
• Highest individual score: 51 (Rohit Sharma)

Also READ: “I’d be lying if…” – KL Rahul on India’s nervy win over South Africa in Ranchi ODI

BJP MP and national spokesperson Sambit Patra (PTI)

NEW DELHI: BJP on Tuesday hit back at the Congress after the opposition accused the government of infringing on citizens’ privacy by directing smartphone makers to preload the Sanchar Saathi app on new devices.Taking a jibe at the Congress, BJP MP and national spokesperson Sambit Patra said, “I know who will delete it… ‘Chor ki daadhi mein tinka’ (a guilty conscience needs no accuser)”He also made a veiled reference to the National Herald case, in which Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi are accused. “You know very well who they are. An FIR has also been filed against them. They have swindled Rs 5,000 crore. At present, they are out on bail,” he told reporters at the BJP headquarters, as reported by PTI.Defending the app, Patra said it is designed to protect users from fraud and crime, not to monitor them, and emphasised that people are free to remove it from their phones if they do not wish to use it. “The app cannot read your messages. It cannot listen to your calls, incoming or outgoing. Sanchar Saathi cannot reach or breach your personal data.” He added that the app helps provide security, check fraud, track stolen mobile phones, and return them to their owners.Minister of communications Jyotiraditya Scindia also,clarified that the app will remain dormant unless users register on it, and can be deleted at any time.Congress has alleged that the directive reflects a “dictatorial” approach, calling Sanchar Saathi a “snooping app” and demanding that the move be withdrawn. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge accused the government of trying to “strangulate the voice of the people”.Responding sharply, Patra said, “Mr Kharge, it is not meant to strangulate people’s voice but to secure their voice, and their mobile phones, without which life is difficult today. We need to secure the device. That is why the government has brought this app.”“You keep on spreading misinformation. But people know how to move on,” he added, as quoted by PTI.

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NEW DELHI: Parliament is set to hold key discussions on electoral reforms and the 150th anniversary of the national song, Vande Mataram, after lawmakers reached an agreement to resume proceedings smoothly following days of disruptions. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan received a visit from his sister at Adiala Jail, breaking weeks of restricted access that had sparked protests by PTI supporters and family members.

Navy chief Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi announced the upcoming commissioning of the country’s third indigenous nuclear submarine and highlighted the Navy’s strategic role during Operation Sindoor, which pressured Pakistan’s naval forces to remain close to their ports.Here are the top 5 news stories of the day:

Lok Sabha to hold 10-hour debate on electoral reforms after breakthrough with opposition

The government and opposition reached an agreement to ensure smooth functioning of Parliament after two days of disruptions, clearing the way for a detailed 10-hour discussion on electoral reforms on December 9 and 10. The decision was finalised during a Business Advisory Committee meeting chaired by Speaker Om Birla, who also scheduled a debate on the 150th anniversary of Vande Mataram for December 8. Read full story

Pakistani authorities allow Imran Khan’s sister to meet him after weeks of restricted access

Authorities at Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail allowed Imran Khan’s sister, Uzma Khanum, to meet the former Pakistan prime minister after several weeks of denied access that had fuelled protests by PTI supporters. PTI workers gathered outside the jail as family members demanded clarity on Imran’s health. The meeting followed weeks of blocked visits despite an Islamabad High Court order and growing tensions over alleged police assaults on Imran’s sisters during recent demonstrations. Read full story

Telecom minister clarifies Sanchar Saathi App is optional, not mandatory

Telecom minister Jyotiraditya Scindia clarified that the government’s Sanchar Saathi cybersecurity app is completely optional for users. Speaking outside Parliament, he said the app does not enable call monitoring or snooping, and users can choose to register, remain inactive, or delete it at any time. Read full story

Rahul Gandhi comments on the stray dog incident in Parliament, BJP hits back

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi weighed in on the controversy surrounding MP Renuka Chowdhury bringing a stray dog to Parliament, questioning why pets are allowed “inside” but not outside the complex. He said, “What has the poor dog done? I guess these are the things India is discussing these days,” as per PTI. The remarks drew criticism from the BJP, which accused Gandhi of likening leaders to dogs. Read full story

‘Forced Pak ships to stay in ports’: Navy chief highlights role in Operation Sindoor

Navy chief Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi announced that India’s third indigenously built nuclear-powered submarine will be commissioned soon. Speaking ahead of Navy Day, he said the Navy’s swift and aggressive action during counterterror Operation Sindoor forced Pakistan’s naval forces to stay close to their ports near the Makran coast. Read full story