Who is winning the US-Iran war? That’s the question gripping the internet, TV debates, and social media worldwide right now.Six days ago, the US and Israel unleashed coordinated strikes on Iran, hammering military bases, missile sites, and key infrastructure nationwide. Iran has fired back with its remaining arsenal against the world’s top superpower — and Israel, the Middle East’s most battle-hardened force.Missiles, drones and precision-guided bombs have been used by both sides. Yet one particular weapon has drawn global attention: Iran’s Shahed-series drones, which cost a fraction of the missiles used to intercept them.
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These relatively simple drones, estimated to cost between $20,000 and $50,000 each, are forcing the United States and its regional partners to respond using Patriot air-defence missiles that cost around $4 million per interceptor. The resulting imbalance in costs has turned the conflict into a war of attrition in which the outcome may depend less on technology and more on which side runs out of weapons first.
Cheap drones, expensive defences
Just three days into the conflict, analysts began describing the war as attritional, with both sides expending large quantities of munitions.According to defence data compiled by regional governments and analysts, waves of Iranian drone attacks have targeted US bases, oil infrastructure and civilian buildings across West Asia, including locations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.Many of these attacks have involved the Shahed-136 one-way attack drone, a loitering munition designed to strike a target and explode on impact.
The United States and its allies have largely relied on Patriot air-defence systems to intercept these threats. According to the UAE’s defence authorities, interception rates have exceeded 90 per cent, demonstrating the effectiveness of the American-made system.However, the cost of each interception has become a growing concern among military planners.Destroying a drone worth around $20,000 with a missile costing about $4 million creates a significant economic imbalance. Even if most drones are intercepted, the defending side must expend far more resources to do so.
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The issue has already been observed in the Russia-Ukraine war, where large numbers of inexpensive drones forced defenders to use costly air-defence interceptors.Military analysts say Iran appears to be applying a similar strategy in the current conflict.
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Iran’s strategy of attrition
Security experts say Iran’s approach relies on overwhelming air-defence systems with large numbers of inexpensive drones, forcing defenders to expend valuable interceptor missiles.Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said such a strategy could make operational sense from Tehran’s perspective.
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“Attrition strategy makes operational sense from Iran’s perspective,” Grieco told Bloomberg. “They are calculating the defenders will exhaust their interceptors and the political will of Gulf states will crack and put pressure on the US and Israel to cease operations before they run out of missiles and drones.”According to analysts, Iran still possesses a large inventory of drones despite suffering damage to parts of its missile infrastructure during earlier conflicts.Becca Wasser, defence lead at Bloomberg Economics, said Iran was estimated to have around 2,000 ballistic missiles after last year’s confrontation with Israel.However, the number of Shahed drones in Iran’s arsenal is believed to be significantly larger. Russia, which also manufactures similar drones, has demonstrated the ability to produce several hundred per day, according to open-source defence assessments cited by Wasser.Since the start of the current conflict, Tehran is estimated to have launched more than 1,200 projectiles, many of them Shahed drones.Analysts say this could indicate that Iran is conserving its ballistic missiles for later stages of the conflict while relying on cheaper drones to sustain pressure on US and allied defences.
The Shahed drone: Simple but effective
The Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones are among the most widely used loitering munitions developed by Iran.The name “Shahed” means “witness” in Persian, and the drones were originally developed by Shahed Aviation Industries, an Iranian aerospace company.Open-source defence assessments suggest the drones are roughly 2.5 to three metres long and weigh around 200 kilograms at launch.They feature a delta-wing design and are powered by a small propeller-driven engine. The engine sacrifices speed but allows the drone to travel long distances while consuming relatively little fuel.The Shahed-136 variant is believed to have a range of 2,000 to 2,500 kilometres, enabling it to reach targets across much of the Middle East.Once launched using a rocket booster, the drone switches to its piston engine and navigates toward pre-programmed coordinates using satellite guidance.It carries an explosive warhead weighing 40 to 60 kilograms, though some versions reportedly carry payloads of up to 90 kilograms with reduced range.Because of their small size and relatively low radar signature, these drones can be difficult to detect until they are already in flight.Their engine produces a distinctive buzzing sound that has earned them the nickname “mopeds of the sky” in previous conflicts.
Launching swarms
One of the main advantages of the Shahed drone is the ability to launch them in large numbers from simple platforms.Unlike advanced fighter aircraft or ballistic missiles that require complex launch infrastructure, Shahed drones can be launched from trucks, mobile launchers or improvised platforms.This makes it difficult for opposing forces to locate and destroy launch sites before drones are deployed.The strategy often involves launching multiple drones simultaneously, creating a swarm designed to overwhelm radar and air-defence systems.Even if most drones are intercepted, the strategy can still be effective.From Iran’s perspective, each drone destroyed forces the defender to spend significantly more money on interception.
Pressure on air-defence stockpiles
The United States and its regional allies rely heavily on the Patriot air-defence system, manufactured by Lockheed Martin and operated across several Middle Eastern countries.The system uses PAC-3 interceptor missiles, which cost several million dollars each.Although the Pentagon has expanded production in recent years, only around 600 PAC-3 missiles were produced in 2025, according to figures cited by defence industry sources.Given the intensity of current combat operations, analysts believe thousands of interceptor missiles may have already been fired since the conflict began.
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A person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Patriot interceptor stocks in the region could run dangerously low within days if Iranian attacks continue at the current rate.
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In addition to Patriots, some countries also operate the THAAD missile defence system, designed to intercept high-speed ballistic missiles at high altitude.However, each THAAD interceptor costs around $12 million, making it even more expensive than Patriot missiles.These systems are generally reserved for larger threats such as ballistic missiles rather than slower drones.
Other defensive measures
To reduce reliance on expensive interceptors, the United States and its allies have used other systems to counter drone attacks.These include fighter aircraft armed with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) missiles, which cost roughly $20,000 to $30,000 each, though the operating cost of the aircraft adds to the expense.
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However, purpose-built anti-drone systems such as laser weapons, automatic cannons and electronic warfare systems remain limited across the region.Israel has developed a laser-based defence system known as Iron Beam, designed specifically to destroy drones and rockets at a much lower cost.However, the Israeli military said earlier this week that the system had not yet been used in the current conflict.
Iran’s weakened air defences
While Iran has been able to launch attacks across the region, its own defensive capabilities have suffered significant damage.According to defence analysts, surface-to-air missile systems were among the first targets during the opening hours of the war.Some of Iran’s most advanced air-defence systems were Russian-made S-300 batteries, designed to intercept aircraft and missiles.Many of these installations were reportedly hit during the initial strikes.As a result, US and Israeli aircraft have been able to operate inside Iranian airspace with relatively little resistance since the start of the conflict.
Military operations and command structure
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country’s military units were operating with a degree of independence during the conflict.“Our military units are now in fact independent and somehow isolated and they are acting based on instructions, general instructions given to them in advance,” Araghchi said in an interview with Al Jazeera.He added that the government had already instructed the armed forces to exercise caution when selecting targets.
Concerns about prolonged war
On the US side, analysts say the Pentagon may not have deployed enough munitions to sustain a prolonged campaign.Becca Wasser said American strike planners were unlikely to have moved sufficient weapons into the region to support the four-week conflict timeline previously mentioned by US President Donald Trump.US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also suggested the campaign was not intended to become a long war.“This is not Iraq, this is not endless,” Hegseth said during a news conference.
