Hyderabad: India’s pharmaceutical sector is staring at potential losses of Rs 2,500– Rs 5,000 crore if March exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the wider West Asia and North Africa (WANA) are completely disrupted by the ongoing West Asia conflict, which is intensifying pressure on freight, shipping routes, and delivery schedules, according to the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil).GCC countries currently account for 5.58% of India’s total exports, with pharma a growing component of that trade. As per recent industry data, Indian pharmaceutical exports to the WANA region rose from $1,320.44 million in FY 2020-21 to $1,749.68 million in FY 2024-25.

Countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Yemen rely heavily on India for cost-effective medicines, even as momentum grew in emerging markets such as Jordan, Kuwait, and Libya, with increasing demand for vaccines, surgical products, and AYUSH formulations. However, this growth is now at risk due to ongoing challenges in the global freight market.Pharmexcil Chairman Namit Joshi said tensions in West Asia affected critical maritime and air cargo corridors. Key routes such as the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf shipping corridors are facing heightened risks of rerouting or delays, threatening delivery schedules. This is a concern, especially for temperature-sensitive products that can be damaged by prolonged transit or cold-chain disruptions.According to Pharmexcil, the conflict already put considerable strain on the global freight market, with freight charges for both imports and exports doubling in some cases. “The doubling of freight charges for both imports and exports, accompanied by surcharges of $4,000–$8,000 per shipment, put substantial pressure on Indian pharmaceutical companies,” Joshi said.Another concern is escalating costs across the pharmaceutical supply chain, with major cost drivers including crude oil price fluctuations, rising logistics costs for APIs and finished formulations, and shipping delays that will affect inventory cycles, he said.Pharmexcil said it is monitoring developments and engaging logistics and trade stakeholders for damage control. It recommended closer coordination with govt authorities for possible freight relief measures, diversification of shipping routes and alternative logistics options, and continued dialogue with international regulators to maintain timely availability of medicines in key markets.

The upcoming Noida International Airport in Jewar has received its aerodrome licence from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), clearing a key regulatory hurdle and bringing the project closer to the start of flight operations.The development was confirmed by Rakesh Kumar Singh, chief executive officer of Noida International Airport Limited (NIAL) and the Yamuna Expressway Industrial Development Authority, reported news agency PTI.NIAL’s nodal officer Shailendra Bhatia said the licence has been issued under civil aviation rules and covers domestic passenger flights as well as cargo operations.

Officials said the remaining operational deployment and arrangements are expected to be completed within about 45 days, adding that the airport infrastructure is now ready.“Receiving the aerodrome license is a key milestone in our journey. It reflects the strong collaboration with our partners and the rigorous work undertaken to ensure readiness for commercial operations. We are committed to delivering a modern, efficient and passenger-centric airport that will serve as a catalyst for regional economic growth,” Christoph Schnellmann, Chief Executive Officer of Noida International Airport (NIA), said in a statement.The airport is expected to be formally inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, officials said.

What the licence means

According to the airport authorities, the aerodrome licence issued under Rule 78 of the Aircraft Rules, 1937, certifies that the airport meets regulatory requirements related to operational procedures, safety systems, infrastructure, navigation aids and emergency response standards mandated by the DGCA.The licence follows a recent security clearance from the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) for domestic passenger operations as well as domestic and international cargo handling.Authorities said these approvals mark significant progress towards the airport’s operational readiness. However, commercial flight operations will begin only after the Aerodrome Security Programme (ASP) receives final approval from BCAS.“We look forward to receiving this approval in due course, following which airline schedules, ticket sales, and the formal inauguration will be announced closer to the launch of operations,” the airport said in a statement.

Project scale and capacity

The greenfield airport project, being developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) model in Jewar, Gautam Buddh Nagar, is expected to become one of the largest airports in the country once fully operational.In its first phase, the airport spans about 1,300 hectares and includes one runway and one terminal building, with the capacity to handle around 1.2 crore passengers annually.Passenger services were originally scheduled to begin in September 2024.

Operational preparations underway

Operational readiness activities under the airport’s Operational Readiness Activation and Transition (ORAT) programme are ongoing to ensure systems, processes and personnel are prepared for the launch.A major milestone was achieved in December 2024, when IndiGo operated a validation flight using an Airbus A320, successfully testing the airport’s approach procedures, navigation aids and air traffic control systems.Airport authorities said major operational infrastructure has already been completed, and concessions have been awarded for services such as ground handling, aviation fuel supply, cargo, retail, food and beverage, in-flight catering, mobility services and the airport hotel.They added that communication and navigation systems have been commissioned by the Airports Authority of India, bringing the project closer to full operational readiness

In Dubai, traders have begun offering gold at discounts of up to $30 per ounce compared with the benchmark price in London. (AI image)

US-Irasel-Iran war impact on gold prices: In UAE’s Dubai, which finds itself in the midst of the escalating Middle East crisis, the yellow metal is now available at very steep discounts. Gold is currently being offered for sale at a substantial discount in Dubai as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts air travel and restricts suppliers’ ability to move bullion out of the major trading hub.The United Arab Emirates, particularly Dubai, serves as a major hub for refining and exporting gold to buyers across Asia. It also acts as a transit point for shipments arriving from Switzerland, the United Kingdom and several African countries.

Gold at steep price cuts in Dubai

As per a Bloomberg report, a number of buyers have postponed fresh purchases, unwilling to bear unusually high freight and insurance charges without certainty over delivery timelines. Consequently, traders have begun offering gold at discounts of up to $30 per ounce compared with the benchmark price in London, the report said. The move helps traders avoid having to continuously pay storage and financing costs.

Several shipments were still stranded as of Friday, the sources said, although a limited quantity of bullion had begun leaving Dubai on flights starting in the middle of the week.

However, part of the country’s airspace has been shut following a series of Iranian missile strikes as the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Tehran enters its seventh day without any clear resolution.Gold is usually transported in the cargo sections of passenger aircraft. With flights from the UAE heavily restricted, traders and logistics providers have been hesitant to move high-value bullion by road to airports in neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia or Oman, citing the logistical challenges and risks involved, especially when crossing land borders.Also Read | Israel-Iran war: What US 30-day waiver on Russian oil means for India – explained“Several shipments of gold cargo have either been delayed or left stranded, creating a temporary squeeze in the supply of physical bullion in India,” said Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont Enterprises Ltd., one of the country’s largest gold dealers.

However, buyers in India, which is among the biggest destinations for gold shipped from Dubai, are not under immediate pressure to replenish supplies. Demand in the near term remains subdued and inventories are relatively high following substantial imports recorded in January, Chirag Sheth, principal consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus told Bloomberg.“As of now, there is ample stock,” he said, “but if this drags on for a few months, then there will be a problem.”Spot gold prices have climbed nearly 20% so far this year and are holding above $5,000 an ounce. Even so, trading has been volatile, and the metal has faced pressure this week as the dollar strengthened.At the same time, there are indications that refiners are facing difficulties securing doré, the semi-refined gold bars that are usually cast at mining sites. India’s largest precious metals refinery, MMTC-PAMP, sources roughly 10% of its doré from a mine in the Middle East, but those supplies have been disrupted, said Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Samit Guha. He added that for new supply agreements sourced from other locations, logistics expenses have surged by about 60% to 70% since the conflict began.

US stocks fell sharply on Friday as surging oil prices and disappointing economic data fuelled concerns about a potential stagflation scenario, where slowing growth combines with rising inflation.The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 909 points, or 1.9%, to 48,338.36 as of 9:35 am Eastern Time, AP reported. The Nasdaq Composite also declined 1.6%, reflecting broad weakness across Wall Street.The selloff followed a report showing that US employers cut more jobs last month than they created, signalling potential weakness in the labour market. At the same time, oil prices surged to their highest levels in nearly two years as the war involving Iran intensified.“You can’t sugarcoat this report,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management. “A negative payrolls number combined with a big jump in oil prices will have traders worrying about stagflation risks.”Stagflation refers to a situation where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains high, making policy responses more difficult.Adding to concerns, a separate report released Friday showed US retailers earned less revenue last month than economists expected, raising questions about the strength of consumer spending, which is a key driver of the US economy.Normally, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates when economic growth slows to stimulate activity. Lower borrowing costs can make mortgages and business investments cheaper while supporting stock prices. The Fed had already cut rates several times last year and had signalled the possibility of further reductions this year.However, rising inflation driven by higher energy prices could limit the central bank’s room to ease policy.Energy markets remained the key trigger for the volatility. The international benchmark Brent crude jumped 5.7% to $90.25 per barrel, while US benchmark crude surged 8.9% to $88.20 per barrel.Oil prices have climbed sharply from around $70 late last week as the conflict expanded and targeted areas critical to energy production and transportation in the Middle East.Much of the market’s concern centres on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping corridor near Iran through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.The conflict has also halted Iranian gas exports to parts of Asia, which could intensify competition for alternative energy supplies.“If that stoppage is drawn out, it will likely lead to a bidding war between Europe and Asia that would send energy prices even higher,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.Some analysts warn that if oil prices climb towards $100 per barrel and remain elevated, the global economy could face significant pressure.Despite the current turmoil, markets have historically recovered relatively quickly after geopolitical conflicts, provided that oil prices do not remain elevated for an extended period.President Donald Trump has recently said that he wants “unconditional surrender” from Iran, signalling a hardline stance and reducing expectations for negotiations in the near term.In the bond market, Treasury yields rose further as higher oil prices increased inflation expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.17% from 4.13% late Thursday and from 3.97% before the Iran conflict began.According to CME Group data, traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates only once this year, instead of the earlier expectation of at least two reductions.Global markets showed mixed performance. In Europe, France’s CAC 40 fell 1.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 1.8%, while Asian markets ended mostly higher, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 1.7% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.6%.