Ghadir class submarines (Image/X)

As the Middle East war intensifies, the battle is not limited to airstrikes and surface attacks. Even beneath the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, a hidden threat continues to loom and it is far harder to detect and neutralise.The United States has deployed A-10 attack aircraft and Apache helicopters over the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian speedboats and underground weapons facilities. These operations are aimed at weakening Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic and ensuring the safe passage of oil tankers. However, analysts warn that the most serious threat may not come from weapons that can be easily intercepted, but from submarines that remain largely undetected underwater.The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The waterway carries nearly 20% of global energy supplies. Any disruption in this narrow waterway can have immediate global consequences, including rising oil prices and supply shortages. Iran’s geographic position along the Strait has allowed it to develop strategies and capabilities aimed at controlling or disrupting maritime movement in the region.

Iran’s mini submarines: Ghadir-class midget

At the centre of this conflict is Iran’s fleet of Ghadir-class midget submarines. These submarines are much smaller than conventional ones, measuring about 29 metres in length and weighing around 120 tons.Their compact size allows them to operate in shallow waters, as little as 30 metres deep, which matches the average depth of key shipping channels in the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Telegraph.Iran has up to 10 Ghadir-class midget submarines. Their miniature size allows them to evade detection and operate in waters as shallow as 30 metres, the average depth of key shipping channels through the Strait of Hormuz.In contrast to midget submarines, the United States’ Ohio-class nuclear submarines weigh around 18,750 tons and measure 170 metres in length. These submarines are extremely difficult to detect due to the naturally noisy environment caused by heavy ship traffic and offshore activity. These mini submarines are capable of launching torpedoes and more importantly, laying naval mines. Experts believe their mine-laying capability poses the greatest risk, as even a small number of mines can disrupt shipping routes for extended periods. Clearing such mines is a slow and complex process, which can effectively block the movement of vessels through the strait. Iran has spent decades studying the Gulf’s geography and training its naval personnel in these waters, enhancing the effectiveness of these operations.

Other submarines in Iran’s arsenal

In addition to the Ghadir-class, Iran operates several other types of submarines. The Fateh-class submarines weighing around 600 tonnes are larger and equipped with improved sensors, allowing them to operate in deeper waters while still maintaining a relatively small profile. Iran also possesses Russian-built Kilo-class submarines (Taregh, Yunes and Nooh), which are more powerful but less suited to the shallow waters of the Gulf. Other submarines including the Nahang midget were also purchased from Russia in the 1990s. Alongside these, Iran has developed specialised underwater systems such as the e-Ghavasi and Al-Sabehat swimmer delivery vehicles. These are designed for covert operations, allowing naval commandos to carry out missions such as mine-laying in shallow coastal waters.

Iran’s speedboat and drones

Iran’s naval strategy also relies heavily on fast-attack vessels operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These boats are designed for swarm tactics, enabling them to overwhelm larger ships in confined waters. The fleet includes more advanced platforms such as the Zulfaghar-class boats, which are equipped with air defence systems and represent some of Iran’s most capable fast-attack vessels.Iran has also developed unconventional platforms such as the Bavar-2, a “flying boat” that can rise slightly above the water surface, increasing speed while reducing its radar.A major long-term threat comes from Iran’s anti-ship missile systems, which are deployed along its coastline. These include short-range missiles capable of targeting nearby vessels, as well as longer-range cruise and ballistic missiles that can strike ships across the Strait of Hormuz and beyond. Many of these systems are mobile, mounted on trucks or hidden in tunnels and bunkers, making them difficult to locate and target through conventional airstrikes.A major long-term threat comes from Iran’s extensive range of anti-ship missile systems deployed along its coastline. Short-range missiles such as the Kowsar and Nasr-1 are capable of targeting vessels operating close to shore.For longer distances, Iran has developed cruise missiles which can strike targets across the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf of Oman. The Abu Mahdi cruise missile significantly extends this range, reportedly capable of hitting targets up to 1000 kilometres away.In addition, Iran has developed anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the Gulf and Hormuz-2, designed to strike moving vessels using satellite guidance.

Naval mines: The biggest risk to global trade

Military experts believe that Iran’s most effective tool may be its extensive stockpile of naval mines. These include contact mines that explode on impact, magnetic mines that detect a ship’s hull, acoustic mines triggered by propeller noise and pressure mines that respond to water movement. Some advanced variants are designed to target large commercial vessels specifically. Even limited deployment of such mines could halt maritime traffic and take weeks to clear, severely impacting global trade.While US forces continue to target visible threats, the underwater dimension of the conflict remains a significant challenge. Submarines and mines are far harder to detect and neutralise, giving Iran the ability to disrupt global shipping routes without engaging in direct large-scale naval battles.

The Middle East crisis has left oil markets on edge, and the volatility is expected to continue. Prices are likely to stay high, even as forecasts vary on how long the surge will last, with the ongoing conflict still disrupting global supplies. Prices edged lower on Friday but held firmly above the $100 mark, reflecting the impact of damaged energy infrastructure and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $108.5 a barrel after earlier touching $110, while US crude remained largely steady at around $95.6.The big question is, how high and long can this hike stretch?Market projections suggest the current price levels could persist, especially if supply disruptions continue. Goldman Sachs said oil that markets could remain under pressure for years, warning that prolonged outages may keep prices elevated well beyond the immediate term. “The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.With the key shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked for nearly three weeks, the bank expects prices to move higher and has indicated that Brent could even surpass its previous peak of about $147 per barrel recorded in 2008 if the disruption worsens.Goldman outlined different scenarios based on how the situation evolves. In a more severe case, where oil flows remain heavily restricted for over two months and production recovers only gradually to 2 million barrels per day, Brent could be around $111 per barrel by the final quarter of 2027. However, in a more optimistic scenario, involving a gradual restoration of flows from April, could see prices ease to the $70 range by the end of 2026.Other forecasts point to a softer trajectory over time. The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to stay above $95 per barrel in the near term, before dropping below $80 in the third quarter of 2026 and settling around $70 by the end of that year. It projects an average price of $64 per barrel in 2027, noting that outcomes will depend on how long the conflict lasts and the extent of supply disruptions.In a staff memo, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said the airline is factoring in the possibility of oil prices rising to as much as $175 per barrel and staying above $100 through the end of 2027. At those levels, United’s annual fuel expenses could increase by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it recorded in its best year, he said, even as strong travel demand allows carriers to raise fares. United Airlines said that it will reduce unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for elevated jet fuel prices linked to the war involving Iran. The impact of the crisis is already being felt across the energy sector. QatarEnergy said that missile strikes have cut liquefied natural gas export capacity at Ras Laffan by 17%, with repairs potentially taking up to five years, affecting supplies to Europe and Asia.Overall, projections underline a wide range of possible outcomes, but point to one common factor, oil prices are likely to remain sensitive to how the conflict unfolds and how quickly disrupted supply routes are restored.

Panaji: At the start of the season, Raynier Fernandes didn’t know where he would end up.The former India midfielder had another year left on his existing contract with FC Goa, but having been loaned to Odisha FC last season, he was surplus to requirements at the club. There was no spot for him in a crowded midfield that had Ayush Chhetri, Sahil Tavora, Harsh Patre, Prachit Gaonkar, besides the two foreigners, David Timor and Borja Herrera.When Goa kicked off their campaign in the AFC Champions League Two, Raynier waited at home, hoping someone would call. The uncertainty surrounding Indian football didn’t help, and it was not until December that he was told he can start training again, not with seniors, but the developmental team of FC Goa.Raynier, 30, trained earnestly, not even knowing if he would play in the top tier of Indian football. A month later, with foreigners parting ways with the club, he was asked to return to the senior team.“I was just waiting for an opportunity to be called back to the (senior) team,” Raynier told TOI during the pre-match media interaction on Friday. “With the reserves, I got some training; I was out of football for seven months. Training with the development team helped me. It got my confidence back. It wasn’t there for quite some time. After the coach and staff called me, it helped. As player, we need to keep faith, cannot afford to give up.”Manolo too appears to trust Raynier more than at the start of the campaign. For the away clash against Punjab FC last week, the midfielder was a second-half substitute and kept the ball moving. His 19 forward passes in the final third were more than any other player.“At the start, it was a new experience for me, training with the development team, trying to get my rhythm and fitness back. Individually you can do a lot, but you require a team to play, so that helped me get my confidence back,” said Raynier.Raynier is nowhere close to the form that made him such an invaluable player with Mumbai City when they won the double, or when Stephen Constantine and Igor Stimac handpicked him for the national team. He was also an automatic starter during Manolo Marquez’s first season at Goa, starting 11 of the first 12 games, a fantastic run that saw the club remain unbeaten and on top of the league ladder.But Raynier believes he’s getting there, slowly, steadily, but surely.“I am trying to do my best. The coach always wants the best for the team, for the players. I’m trying to win the coach’s confidence, trying to do well for the team. Obviously, I had a couple of chances to score which I could not. I am not 100 % happy (with my performance), I still have to improve,” said Raynier.It would have been music to Raynier’s ears to hear from Manolo – seated next to him for the media interaction – that the coach was happy with his second-half performance against Punjab FC, even though the 1-1 result was disappointing in the end.“Training with the development team is not good, but it’s better than training individually,” said Manolo, sympathising with Raynier. “I had similar cases in Spain when players who are (still) contracted or on loan trained with the reserves. It’s not easy. The best thing is to train with a team. We have examples here of Ishan (Pandita) and Daniel (Lalhlimpuia), and it’s very clear that physically they are not in the same situation as other players.”

NEW DELHI: National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) will deploy AI-powered dashcam analytics services (DAS) on approximately 40,000 km of the NH network which are under operation and maintenance contracts. The decision comes amid complaints of commuters against riding quality and road conditions.For effective monitoring, NHAI has divided the country into five zones and contracts have been awarded for two years.This week, highway ministry informed Rajya Sabha that the number of public complaints over the quality of highway construction and condition of riding surface of NHs has registered over 60% increase this year compared to last year. Till March 12, such complaints increased to 11,340 from 7,030 in 2024-25. The ministry also said that this year, 9,977 grievances have been resolved.An NHAI official said the dashcams will be installed in every highway patrol vehicle and these will record all details, including 30 types of defects and anomalies on highways. The primary focus will be on pavement condition, including potholes, cracks, rutting, and surface deterioration, along with issues such as faded lane markings, damaged crash barriers, and non-functional street lights.“The recordings will be fed into a specialised IT platform that features dedicated modules for data management and AI analytics. This will generate reports within a day and identify the defects. Based on this instructions will be issued for fixing the issues to agencies and officials concerned,” said an official.The system will also identify other safety concerns, including illegal median openings, unauthorised signboards, encroachments, and illegal parking.The surveys will be conducted at least once a week, with night time inspections conducted at least once a month to assess the performance of road signage, pavement markings, road studs, and highway lighting. It will also cover critical issues such as water stagnation, missing drainage covers, vegetation growth, and the condition of bus bays.