China masses over 200 J-6 ‘drones’ near Taiwan as US-Iran war escalates
China has stationed converted fighter jets, now repurposed as attack drones, at multiple air bases close to the Taiwan Strait, according to a new report, in what analysts see as a significant shift in Beijing’s warfighting posture around Taiwan.Satellite imagery reviewed by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies shows rows of ageing J-6 aircraft positioned across at least six bases in Fujian and Guangdong provinces. These aircraft, originally designed in the 1960s, have been modified into unmanned systems and are now being deployed as part of China’s expanding drone arsenal.Senior fellow J Michael Dahm said the People’s Liberation Army has deployed an estimated 200 or more such platforms near the strait. These jets-turned-drones are not designed for traditional air combat but for saturation attacks. “They will attack Taiwan, U.S. or allied targets in large numbers, effectively overwhelming air defenses,” Dahm said.The development comes at a time of widening global instability, with conflicts in West Asia and maritime chokepoints adding to the sense of a fragmented and strained international order.
Global disruptions from Iran to the Red Sea reshape strategic timing
China’s moves near Taiwan are unfolding against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, both critical arteries of global trade.Iran’s recent actions to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices soaring and disrupted global energy flows. The strait, through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has become a pressure point after clashes involving the United States and Israel. Analysts warn that securing Hormuz is far more complex than past operations in the Red Sea, where efforts to counter Houthi attacks proved costly and only partially effective.“There is no substitute for the Strait of Hormuz,” Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said, underlining the global stakes.The Red Sea crisis offers a cautionary precedent. Despite sustained military operations, Western forces struggled to fully secure shipping lanes against drones, missiles, and asymmetric attacks. Experts say Iran, with a more advanced military and geography favouring defence, presents an even greater challenge.This broader disruption matters for East Asia. As Western military and strategic focus stretches across multiple theatres, it potentially creates windows of opportunity elsewhere. Beijing appears to be factoring this into its evolving Taiwan strategy.
Turning old jets into new weapons
At the centre of China’s latest deployment is the transformation of obsolete aircraft into expendable attack platforms.The J-6 fighter, derived from the Soviet-era MiG-19, once formed the backbone of China’s air force. Now retired from frontline service, hundreds of these aircraft have been converted into drones, designated J-6W.These systems are not typical remotely piloted drones. Instead, they are closer to cruise missiles in concept. Stripped of their original equipment, fitted with automated flight control systems and terrain-following navigation, they are designed to fly into targets in large numbers during the opening phase of a conflict.Dahm estimates that more than 500 such aircraft may have been converted, with a significant portion now positioned near Taiwan. Their role is straightforward: overwhelm defences through sheer volume.“They would be used more like cruise missiles than autonomous or remote-controlled unmanned aerial vehicles,” Dahm said.
The logic of saturation warfare
The deployment reflects a broader shift toward what military analysts describe as saturation warfare.Rather than relying solely on advanced, high-cost platforms, China appears to be investing in large numbers of relatively inexpensive systems that can strain and exhaust enemy defences. In a Taiwan scenario, these drones would likely be part of a multi-layered assault involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, advanced fighter jets, and modern unmanned systems.Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at Griffith University, described the potential scenario as overwhelming. “There would be a lot of diverse things all coming at the same time,” he said. “It would be an air defense nightmare.”The objective is not necessarily precision in the first wave, but disruption. By forcing Taiwan and its allies to expend costly interceptor missiles on relatively cheap drones, China could degrade defensive capacity early in a conflict.A senior Taiwanese security official echoed this concern, noting that such drones are intended “to exhaust Taiwan’s air defense systems in the first wave of an attack.”
Cost asymmetry and the economics of war
One of the most significant aspects of this strategy is cost asymmetry.Modern air defence systems rely on expensive interceptor missiles, often costing millions of dollars per unit. In contrast, converted drones like the J-6W are far cheaper, especially since they repurpose existing airframes.This creates a dilemma for defenders. Shooting down each incoming drone with high-end missiles is financially unsustainable in a prolonged conflict. Yet allowing even a few to get through could result in significant damage to critical infrastructure.“This is a form of asymmetric warfare that cannot be ignored,” Taiwan’s defence research bodies have warned.The experience of the war in Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East has reinforced this lesson. Drones, particularly when deployed in large numbers, can overwhelm even sophisticated defence systems.
Why Taiwan remains central to Beijing’s strategy
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under its control. Taiwan, however, rejects these claims, maintaining that its future should be decided by its people.The strategic importance of Taiwan goes beyond political symbolism. Its location in the western Pacific makes it a key node in regional security architecture, particularly in relation to US alliances in Asia.Control over Taiwan would significantly alter the balance of power in the region, giving China greater access to the Pacific and potentially constraining US military operations.Recent assessments have offered mixed signals about Beijing’s timeline. While some US intelligence estimates suggest China is not currently planning an invasion by 2027, Pentagon assessments indicate that China aims to be capable of conducting and winning such a conflict within that timeframe.
A layered and evolving airpower mix
The J-6 drones are only one component of China’s broader military modernisation.Beijing is simultaneously investing in advanced unmanned systems, including stealth drones capable of operating from aircraft carriers. It is also expanding its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as modern fighter aircraft.The integration of older, converted platforms with cutting-edge systems reflects a layered approach to warfare. Each element serves a specific role, from initial saturation attacks to precision strikes and sustained operations.Military analysts say China is also experimenting with deception tactics using drones, potentially rehearsing elements of a Taiwan conflict.
Vulnerabilities and risks
Despite their potential advantages, the deployment of these drones is not without risks.The airbases hosting them, located close to the Taiwan Strait, are themselves vulnerable to counter-attacks. In a conflict, Taiwan and its allies could target these facilities early, attempting to neutralise the threat before the drones are launched.Moreover, while effective in large numbers, these converted drones lack the sophistication of newer systems and may be more susceptible to advanced countermeasures.Still, their value lies not in survivability, but in expendability.
A signal beyond Taiwan
China’s actions near the Taiwan Strait are not occurring in isolation. They are part of a broader recalibration of strategy in a world where multiple crises are unfolding simultaneously.From the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, the global order is under strain. Supply chains are disrupted, military resources are stretched, and geopolitical rivalries are intensifying.In this environment, Beijing appears to be positioning itself to take advantage of shifting dynamics.Amid a disrupted global order, China is not merely reacting. It is adapting, experimenting, and preparing.The deployment of jets-turned-drones near Taiwan is a signal of that intent. It reflects a strategy that blends old platforms with new thinking, leveraging scale, cost, and timing to reshape the battlefield.Whether this remains a posture of deterrence or evolves into something more consequential will depend on how the broader geopolitical landscape continues to unfold.
